FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 7/2/22
Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Dylan Cease ($10,700)
After consecutive double-digit strikeout performances in his last two starts, Cease's FanDuel salary has skyrocketed 11.4% to his highest point this season.
While his matchup against a San Francisco Giants' lineup with a 10.2% walk percentage promotes some reason for concern when examining Cease's main weakness (career 10.7% walk rate), Chicago's right-hander has clearly elevated his skill-set in his fourth big league season, accounting for a career-best 2.75 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating and a 35.5% strikeout percentage in 81.0 innings.
With seven projected hitters with K-rates over 20.0%, Cease currently ranks second with 6.25 strikeouts and first with a 31.0 FanDuel point projection.
George Kirby ($8,500)
Through 53.0 innings this season, Kirby has slightly over-performed his 4.08 Earned Run Average when comparing his expected metrics (3.68 xFIP) with his rookie production.
Despite recent home-run concerns (11.4% barrel rate), Seattle's 24-year old has a decent opportunity to rebound from his worst career start last week versus an Oakland Athletics' team with a weak .279 weighted on-base average and a 23.3% strikeout percentage in their last 140 plate appearances in this particular split.
At his third lowest point, Kirby's decreased salary offers plenty of value with a 3.31 rating and a 28.1 fantasy expectation.
Spencer Strider ($7,700)
Atlanta's 23-year old right-hander is another mid-range salary option to consider with an eye-popping 34.1% strikeout percentage and a 2.70 xFIP in a starting role against a Cincinnati Reds' lineup with a projected .286 wOBA including six hitters with contact rates under 76.4%.
Among Saturday's 18 pitchers, Strider currently rates third with 5.89 expected strikeouts and second in value with a 3.85 rating.
Aaron Ashby ($6,800)
Since May 25th despite recording an ugly 5.06 ERA, Ashby remains an optimal value consideration when evaluating his slate-high 4.21 rating and 2.61 xFIP in his last five starts .
In a great spot versus a Pittsburgh Pirates' team with a low .226 weighted on-base average and a 37.6% K-rate, Milwaukee's lefty currently rates sixth overall with a 28.7 projection and 5.2 strikeouts.
After a 14-run outburst on Friday night, the Phillies' offense will be a crucial decision point versus St. Louis' young left-hander Matthew Liberatore.
While the 22-year old lefty displayed some ability to produce strikeouts in Triple-A (23.7% in 2021, 25.4% in 2022), Liberatore has struggled at the highest level of baseball, recording an ugly 5.34 xFIP and a 7.1% swinging strike rate.
With obvious struggles versus bats from the right side of the plate (career 5.84 expected FIP), core Philadelphia stacks can start with Rhys Hoskins (11,7% barrel rate, .513 expected slugging), Alec Bohm (.345 expected wOBA, .467 expected slugging), and Nick Castellanos (8% barrel percentage, .466 expected slugging) while J.T. Realmuto (.406 expected slugging) and Kyle Schwarber (21.5% barrel rate, .645 expected slugging) are secondary options.
In a matchup versus Bryse Wilson, Milwaukee's lineup offers several power hitters from the left side against a below-average right-hander with a career 5.14 xFIP and a 16.1% K-rate.
To best counter Wilson's trouble versus lefty hitters, Milwaukee correlations should include Rowdy Tellez (.575 expected slugging, 12.9% barrel rate), Christian Yelich (9.9% barrel percentage, .353 expected wOBA), and Jace Peterson (8.4% barrel rate, .431 expected slugging) while Andrew McCutchen (7.9% barrel rate, .475 expected slugging) and Willy Adames (15.8% barrel percentage, .376 expected wOBA) should also be mixed in.