MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 7/6/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADJose
Urena
9.55.9754.9%38.9%25.2%15.0%8.2%
NYMGraham
Ashcraft
10.05.5247.5%31.7%19.3%10.7%5.5%
NYYMitch
Keller
9.05.3344.2%28.7%17.0%9.2%4.5%
HOUBrad
Keller
8.55.2041.9%26.8%15.5%8.2%4.0%
BOSCorey
Kluber
9.54.9737.9%23.3%13.0%6.6%3.1%
TEXSpenser
Watkins
9.54.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
ATLMiles
Mikolas
8.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
BALGlenn
Otto
9.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
TBBrayan
Bello
9.54.5330.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
CLEMichael
Pineda
8.04.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
TORJames
Kaprielian
8.04.5129.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
MILAdrian
Sampson
7.54.4929.5%16.8%8.6%4.0%1.7%
CINDavid
Peterson
10.04.4829.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
PHIJosiah
Gray
7.54.4228.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
SFMerrill
Kelly
8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
ARIAlex
Cobb
8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
CHWJoe
Ryan
8.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
MINLance
Lynn
8.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
LAATrevor
Rogers
7.03.8419.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
STLMax
Fried
8.53.7918.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
PITLuis
Severino
9.03.6716.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
COLMitch
White
9.53.5314.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
OAKJose
Berrios
8.03.4914.1%6.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
DETShane
Bieber
8.03.4814.0%6.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%
KCCristian
Javier
8.53.3011.7%5.1%2.0%0.7%0.2%
MIAShohei
Ohtani
7.03.1610.1%4.2%1.6%0.5%0.2%
WSHAaron
Nola
7.53.089.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
CHCCorbin
Burnes
7.53.018.5%3.4%1.2%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Corbin
Burnes
CHC8.396.4%91.4%83.1%71.7%58.3%44.4%31.6%
Aaron
Nola
WSH8.196.0%90.5%81.7%69.7%56.0%42.0%29.5%
Cristian
Javier
KC7.694.4%87.3%76.6%63.1%48.6%34.8%23.2%
Shohei
Ohtani
MIA6.689.4%78.6%64.4%48.8%34.0%21.9%13.0%
Max
Fried
STL6.387.5%75.5%60.4%44.5%30.1%18.7%10.8%
Luis
Severino
PIT6.186.1%73.3%57.7%41.6%27.6%16.8%9.4%
Shane
Bieber
DET6.085.2%72.0%56.1%40.0%26.2%15.7%8.7%
Lance
Lynn
MIN5.579.5%63.8%46.6%30.9%18.7%10.3%5.2%
Trevor
Rogers
LAA5.073.2%55.6%38.1%23.5%13.1%6.7%3.1%
David
Peterson
CIN4.972.2%54.4%36.8%22.5%12.4%6.2%2.9%
Joe
Ryan
CHW4.971.9%54.0%36.5%22.2%12.2%6.1%2.8%
Josiah
Gray
PHI4.870.7%52.6%35.1%21.1%11.4%5.6%2.5%
Mitch
White
COL4.870.1%51.8%34.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Jose
Berrios
OAK4.870.0%51.6%34.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Miles
Mikolas
ATL4.769.7%51.3%33.9%20.1%10.8%5.2%2.3%
Alex
Cobb
ARI4.769.3%50.9%33.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
Corey
Kluber
BOS4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
Merrill
Kelly
SF4.261.0%41.6%25.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
Mitch
Keller
NYY4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
Brad
Keller
HOU4.259.5%40.0%23.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
Adrian
Sampson
MIL4.057.4%37.9%22.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
James
Kaprielian
TOR3.954.3%34.8%19.6%9.9%4.4%1.8%0.7%
Graham
Ashcraft
NYM3.953.9%34.4%19.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Glenn
Otto
BAL3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Michael
Pineda
CLE3.545.7%26.9%13.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
Brayan
Bello
TB3.545.5%26.7%13.7%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
Jose
Urena
LAD3.342.8%24.5%12.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
Spenser
Watkins
TEX2.932.4%16.3%7.1%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Byron
Buxton
MINNo106Lance
Lynn
32.0%+210
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Josiah
Gray
27.8%+260
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Miles
Mikolas
26.7%+275
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Jose
Urena
25.8%+290
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Brad
Keller
24.9%+300
Joc
Pederson
SFYes99Merrill
Kelly
24.9%+300
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Josiah
Gray
24.6%+305
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo111Graham
Ashcraft
23.0%+335
Vladimir
Guerrero Jr.
TORNo94James
Kaprielian
22.8%+340
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Glenn
Otto
22.1%+355
Mitch
Garver
TEXNo112Spenser
Watkins
21.5%+365
Brandon
Drury
CINYes111David
Peterson
21.2%+370
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Corey
Kluber
21.1%+375
Bo
Bichette
TORNo94James
Kaprielian
20.4%+390
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo112Spenser
Watkins
20.3%+390
Evan
Longoria
SFNo93Merrill
Kelly
20.3%+395
Chris
Taylor
LADNo107Jose
Urena
20.2%+395
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Jose
Urena
20.2%+395
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Corbin
Burnes
20.2%+395
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes95Mitch
Keller
19.9%+400
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo92Mitch
Keller
19.6%+410
Edward
Olivares
KCNo101Cristian
Javier
19.4%+415
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Adrian
Sampson
19.1%+420
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Adrian
Sampson
19.1%+425
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo99Brayan
Bello
19.1%+425
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo94James
Kaprielian
18.9%+430
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Luis
Severino
18.8%+430
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Jose
Urena
18.7%+435
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Jose
Urena
18.7%+435
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes94Michael
Pineda
18.7%+435
Josh
Bell
WSHYes106Aaron
Nola
18.6%+435
Corey
Seager
TEXYes110Spenser
Watkins
18.5%+440
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes93Brayan
Bello
18.5%+440
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Adrian
Sampson
18.5%+440
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes94Michael
Pineda
18.1%+450
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Jose
Urena
18.1%+450
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Joe
Ryan
17.7%+465
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Miles
Mikolas
17.7%+465
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Brad
Keller
17.5%+470
MJ
Melendez
KCYes102Cristian
Javier
17.5%+470
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Michael
Pineda
17.4%+475
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Shohei
Ohtani
17.2%+480
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo112Spenser
Watkins
17.1%+485
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Glenn
Otto
17.1%+485
Christian
Walker
ARINo93Alex
Cobb
17.1%+485
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Miles
Mikolas
17.1%+485
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Brad
Keller
17.0%+485
Mike
Trout
LAAYes90Trevor
Rogers
17.0%+490
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes102Mitch
White
16.9%+495
Trevor
Story
BOSNo99Corey
Kluber
16.8%+495
Juan
Soto
WSHYes106Aaron
Nola
16.7%+500
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes111Lance
Lynn
16.7%+500
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes111Lance
Lynn
16.7%+500
C.J.
Cron
COLNo107Mitch
White
16.5%+505
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Miles
Mikolas
16.5%+505
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Glenn
Otto
16.5%+505
David
Peralta
ARIYes99Alex
Cobb
16.5%+505
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Joe
Ryan
16.4%+510
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo106Lance
Lynn
16.4%+510
Matt
Chapman
TORNo94James
Kaprielian
16.1%+520
Odubel
Herrera
PHIYes106Josiah
Gray
16.0%+525
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Joe
Ryan
15.9%+525
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo92Trevor
Rogers
15.9%+525
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Miles
Mikolas
15.9%+530
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Glenn
Otto
15.8%+530
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes110Spenser
Watkins
15.8%+530
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo92Mitch
Keller
15.8%+530
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Josiah
Gray
15.5%+545
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Shane
Bieber
15.5%+545
George
Springer
TORNo94James
Kaprielian
15.5%+545
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Jose
Berrios
15.5%+545
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes113Graham
Ashcraft
15.4%+545
Will
Smith
LADNo107Jose
Urena
15.2%+560
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo101Cristian
Javier
15.1%+560
Bobby
Witt Jr.
KCNo101Cristian
Javier
15.1%+560
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Glenn
Otto
15.1%+560
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes110Spenser
Watkins
15.1%+560
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Josiah
Gray
14.8%+575
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes97Max
Fried
14.8%+575
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes97Max
Fried
14.8%+575
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Miles
Mikolas
14.6%+585
Brandon
Belt
SFYes99Merrill
Kelly
14.5%+590
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes99Alex
Cobb
14.5%+590
Max
Kepler
MINYes111Lance
Lynn
14.5%+590
Gio
Urshela
MINNo106Lance
Lynn
14.4%+595
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes110Spenser
Watkins
14.4%+595
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Glenn
Otto
14.4%+595
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo110Aaron
Nola
14.1%+610
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes101Adrian
Sampson
14.1%+610
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo92Mitch
Keller
14.0%+615
Joey
Votto
CINNo113David
Peterson
13.9%+615
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes99Merrill
Kelly
13.8%+620
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99Alex
Cobb
13.8%+620
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Brad
Keller
13.8%+625
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo94James
Kaprielian
13.6%+635
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Corey
Kluber
13.6%+635
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Corbin
Burnes
13.3%+650
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes90Trevor
Rogers
13.3%+655
Darick
Hall
PHIYes106Josiah
Gray
13.2%+660
LaMonte
Wade Jr.
SFYes99Merrill
Kelly
13.2%+660
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Shohei
Ohtani
13.1%+660
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Brad
Keller
13.1%+660
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo107Mitch
White
13.0%+665
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo94Jose
Berrios
13.0%+670
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo94James
Kaprielian
13.0%+670
Jose
Miranda
MINNo106Lance
Lynn
12.9%+675
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo92Mitch
Keller
12.8%+685
Ian
Happ
CHCYes101Corbin
Burnes
12.7%+690
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Corbin
Burnes
12.6%+690
Tommy
Pham
CINYes111David
Peterson
12.6%+695
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo110Aaron
Nola
12.6%+695
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes90Trevor
Rogers
12.6%+695
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99Alex
Cobb
12.5%+705
Elias
Diaz
COLNo107Mitch
White
12.3%+715
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo99Brayan
Bello
12.2%+720
Dan
Vogelbach
PITYes95Luis
Severino
12.0%+730
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Adrian
Sampson
11.9%+735
Jace
Peterson
MILYes101Adrian
Sampson
11.9%+735
Starling
Marte
NYMNo111Graham
Ashcraft
11.9%+740
Michael
Harris II
ATLYes100Miles
Mikolas
11.8%+745
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Jose
Berrios
11.7%+755
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo93Merrill
Kelly
11.6%+765
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes113Graham
Ashcraft
11.5%+770
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo92Mitch
Keller
11.5%+775
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Joe
Ryan
11.4%+775
Carlos
Correa
MINNo106Lance
Lynn
11.4%+775
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo106Joe
Ryan
11.4%+775
Luis
Arraez
MINYes111Lance
Lynn
11.3%+780
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes93Brayan
Bello
11.1%+800
Maikel
Franco
WSHNo110Aaron
Nola
11.0%+805
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo94Jose
Berrios
11.0%+810
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Brad
Keller
11.0%+810
Justin
Turner
LADNo107Jose
Urena
10.8%+830
Connor
Joe
COLNo107Mitch
White
10.8%+830
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes113Graham
Ashcraft
10.7%+835
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Luis
Severino
10.6%+840
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes102Mitch
White
10.5%+850
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Shane
Bieber
10.5%+850
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Adrian
Sampson
10.4%+860
Jonathan
Davis
MILNo103Adrian
Sampson
10.4%+860
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Corbin
Burnes
10.4%+860
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Brad
Keller
10.2%+880
Michael
Taylor
KCNo101Cristian
Javier
10.2%+880
Curt
Casali
SFNo93Merrill
Kelly
10.2%+880
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Josiah
Gray
10.1%+890
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Shane
Bieber
10.0%+895
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Joe
Ryan
9.9%+910
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes102Cristian
Javier
9.7%+925
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Corey
Kluber
9.7%+930
Wander
Franco
TBYes93Brayan
Bello
9.7%+930
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Joe
Ryan
9.7%+935
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes92Shohei
Ohtani
9.6%+940
Trey
Mancini
BALNo112Glenn
Otto
9.5%+950
Mark
Canha
NYMNo111Graham
Ashcraft
9.5%+960
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Corey
Kluber
9.3%+975
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNo99Corey
Kluber
9.3%+975
Donovan
Solano
CINYes111David
Peterson
9.1%+995
Max
Stassi
LAAYes90Trevor
Rogers
9.1%+1005
Kevin
Kiermaier
TBYes93Brayan
Bello
9.0%+1015
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes93Corey
Kluber
9.0%+1015
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes102Cristian
Javier
8.9%+1020
Jeff
McNeil
NYMYes113Graham
Ashcraft
8.9%+1020
Sheldon
Neuse
OAKNo94Jose
Berrios
8.9%+1025
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes101Corbin
Burnes
8.9%+1025
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Brad
Keller
8.7%+1050
Jake
Meyers
HOUNo101Brad
Keller
8.7%+1050
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Shohei
Ohtani
8.5%+1070
Josh
VanMeter
PITYes95Luis
Severino
8.4%+1090
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo107Mitch
White
8.3%+1100
Albert
Almora Jr.
CINYes111David
Peterson
8.2%+1120
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes111David
Peterson
8.2%+1120
Jonathan
India
CINYes111David
Peterson
8.2%+1120
Cavan
Biggio
TORYes92James
Kaprielian
8.1%+1125
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo94James
Kaprielian
8.1%+1130
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Adrian
Sampson
8.1%+1140
Tommy
La Stella
SFYes99Merrill
Kelly
7.9%+1165
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Glenn
Otto
7.8%+1180
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Glenn
Otto
7.8%+1185
Luke
Maile
CLENo99Michael
Pineda
7.7%+1190
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Michael
Pineda
7.7%+1190
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Josiah
Gray
7.7%+1205
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo110Aaron
Nola
7.7%+1205
Michael
Perez
PITYes95Luis
Severino
7.6%+1210
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes106Josiah
Gray
7.6%+1220
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes106Aaron
Nola
7.6%+1220
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes94Michael
Pineda
7.5%+1225
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo106Joe
Ryan
7.4%+1250
Albert
Pujols
STLYes97Max
Fried
7.3%+1280
Juan
Yepez
STLYes97Max
Fried
7.3%+1280
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo92Mitch
Keller
7.2%+1280
David
Bote
CHCNo103Corbin
Burnes
7.2%+1285
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo90Shohei
Ohtani
7.1%+1310
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo99Brayan
Bello
7.0%+1340
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes110Spenser
Watkins
6.9%+1345
Yoshitomo
Tsutsugo
PITYes95Luis
Severino
6.8%+1365
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Luis
Severino
6.8%+1365
James
McCann
NYMNo111Graham
Ashcraft
6.8%+1365
Orlando
Arcia
ATLNo97Miles
Mikolas
6.8%+1365
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94Shane
Bieber
6.8%+1375
Brendan
Donovan
STLNo100Max
Fried
6.8%+1380
Jose
Iglesias
COLNo107Mitch
White
6.6%+1415
Kris
Bryant
COLNo107Mitch
White
6.6%+1415
Buddy
Kennedy
ARINo93Alex
Cobb
6.6%+1425
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITNo92Luis
Severino
6.5%+1440
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes97Max
Fried
6.4%+1460
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Corbin
Burnes
6.4%+1470
Donnie
Walton
SFYes99Merrill
Kelly
6.3%+1495