FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 7/12/22
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate where they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salary Play
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
vs. Cincinnati Reds
FanDuel Salary: $10,600
Projected to be one of the top arms of the day, according to our model, I'm definitely rocking with Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees tonight.
In peeking at our projection system, Cole is lapping the field by nearly six points. That's largely due to his greatness (a career-best hard-hit rate, a 30%-plus strikeout rate), and partly due to the matchup. The Cincinnati Reds have been playing better baseball as of late, but they are in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA, isolated power (ISO), and strikeout rate.
As we parse further down, the Reds sport an implied team total of only 3.18 runs, the lowest on today's main slate. He's pricey, but likely worth the investment tonight if you can afford Cole.
Mid-Range Play
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Vs New York Mets
FanDuel Salary: $9,100
As the Atlanta Braves are trying to catch the first-place New York Mets, they are gonna turn to their ace-reliever-turned-starter, Spencer Strider who's been basically untouchable as of late.
The young right-hander has been ballin' this season. In 65 2/3 innings pitched, he's logged a 39.1% strikeout rate and allowed only 0.41 HR/9 this season. While he has only worked 6 innings in each of his last three starts, he's struck 30 hitters in those 18 innings.
With the division-leading Mets sporting an average offense -- a .322 wOBA and a .149 ISO versus right-handed pitchers -- making the reasonably priced Strider seems like a gem.
Low-Salary Play
Mitch White, Los Angeles Dodgers
at St. Louis Cardinals
FanDuel Salary: $6,900
If you need to hit on that cheap-cheap-fun-fun arm, Mitch White of the Los Angeles Dodgers makes for a solid option.
The St. Louis Cardinals have really stunk at the plate as of late. In the last two weeks (while I understand that is an abbreviated sample), it is certainly relevant to highlight that the Birds rank in the bottom-10 in team strikeout rate, wOBA, and ISO, despite having season-long metrics that place them firmly inside of the top-10 for most of the year.
White has recently been thrust into a rotation role, but he's really been solid in it. In 40 innings pitched, he's recorded a 23.4% strikeout rate, a 40.9% ground-ball rate, and only 0.90 HR/9 this season.
According to ESPN's Park Factors, Busch Stadium, yet again, ranks in the bottom of the league in park factor. Roster White with confidence.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
