MLB Betting Guide: Friday 7/15/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Braves Moneyline (-164) - 1 Star
Braves -1.5 (-106) - 1 Star
Over 9.0 (+100) - 1 Star
The Braves' active roster has a 120 wRC+ against left-handed pitching on the back of a .205 ISO (third-best in the Majors). That helps us back the Braves to win outright even at -164 odds and to cover the runline at -106.
Given the combined concerns with the starting pitching, our model is liking these squads, then, to put up some runs enough to find value on the even-money offering of over 9.5 runs scored.
Texas +1.5 (-118) - 2 Stars
Texas Moneyline (+138) - 2 Stars
Over 7.5 (-118) - 2 Stars
On the flip side, Robbie Ray (7-6, 3.60 xFIP) helps explain why the Mariners are favored.
That said, the algorithm here is into the Rangers' odds to pick up a win as underdogs (+138) or at least to beat the runline (+1.5 at -120 odds).
The Mariners are rating out with a 52.0% win rate in this matchup, obviously leaving a 48.0% chance for a victory for the home side. Texas, via our model, is also 59.9% likely to cover the runline.
Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, teams representing the Rangers are 13-12 and covered in 18 of the matchups.
Over 7.0 (-118) - 2 Stars
Giants Moneyline (+110) - 2 Stars
Giants +1.5 (-162) - 1 Star
After an extra innings affair last night, the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants square up once more in a game with a low total (7.0). Our model projects a score of 4.07 to 3.99 in favor of the Giants, who are the underdogs outright.
That helps explain the algorithm's preferred bets in this game.
Giants starter Alex Wood (6-7) has an ERA (4.43) more than a full run higher than his xFIP (3.23), and the SIERA for Wood is 3.44. That's good underlying data.
As for the Brewers' arm, Brandon Woodruff (7-3) also has a worse ERA (4.01) than his xFIP (2.98) or SIERA (2.85).
But overall, our algorithm views the Giants as 65.1% likely to cover the run line and 53.2% likely to pick up the win outright behind Wood.