FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 7/17/22
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Dylan Cease ($10,600)
At his second highest salary point this season, Chicago's hard throwing right-hander ranks fourth at his position with a 33.5 FanDuel point projection and 7.04 expected strikeouts.
While Cease has an average matchup against a Minnesota Twins' unit with a projected .322 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 24.4% K-rate, the 26-year old has been in premier form in his last eight starts, recording an eye-popping 16.8% swinging strike rate, a 35.7% strikeout percentage, and a 2.79 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP).
Shane Bieber ($10,500)
Despite a 6.0% salary spike to his highest point, the Guardians' ace still ranks third overall with a 38.6 fantasy expectation and a 3.68 value rating
Like many pitchers in this salary tier, Bieber has been dealing since June, recording a sparkling 2.89 xFIP, a 14.2% swinging strike percentage, and an effective 27.0% K -rate.
With exciting recent form and a favorable opportunity versus a Detroit Tigers' lineup with a vulnerable .258 wOBA and a 23.3% K-rate, Bieber should be able to reach his strikeout expectation at 7.06 against seven projected hitters with strikeout percentages over 23.0%.
Gerrit Cole ($10,400)
New York's veteran is another option to consider in an underrated matchup against a Boston Red Sox team with a .254 weighted on-base average and a 27.3% K-rate.
In his third season with the Yankees, Cole has replicated his strong 2021 performance through 106.1 innings, accounting for a 2.84 xFIP, a 31.9% strikeout percentage, and 1.9 Wins Above Replacement.
At his lowest salary point this month, the Yankees' fireballer offers plenty of upside as numberFire's second rated pitcher with a 40.4 FanDuel point projection and 7.5 strikeouts.
Aaron Nola ($10,200)
In a divisional showdown versus a Miami Marlins' lineup with a .313 weighted on-base average and a 22.4% K-rate, Nola ranks first among Sunday's 20 pitchers with a 40.5 fantasy expectation.
Overall through 118.1 innings, the 29-year old right-hander is trending towards his best full season, recording a 2.99 xFIP, a 27.7% K-rate, and a vastly improved 3.3% walk percentage (career 6.7%)
With an efficient 11.3% swinging strike percentage, Nola's opportunities to hit his 7.69 strikeout projection will likely hinge on his success versus six projected Miami hitters with contact rates ranging from 64.5% to 76.8% and K-rates over 22.6%.
Oakland's Adam Oller will make his fifth career start on the road versus a Houston team once again ranked among today's highest run totals with a 5.5 mark.
Through 14.1 innings as a starter on the MLB level (6.60 xFIP) and his experience in Triple-A (4.98 xFIP in 44.0 innings during 2021, 5.74 xFIP in 31.2 innings in 2022), the 27-year old right-hander has struggled at the highest levels of baseball mostly due to his lack of command (15.4% career walk rate) and ability to miss bats (8.9% swinging strike percentage).
With overall neutral splits, a core Houston stack can contain their most patient power hitters in Kyle Tucker (.400 expected wOBA, .567 expected slugging) Alex Bregman (.373 expected wOBA, 7.6% barrel rate), Jose Altuve (.369 wOBA, .482 expected slugging) and Chas McCormick (.338 expected wOBA, 10.9% barrel rate).
Atlanta's offense continues to have favorable matchups this weekend, including today's opportunity to hit barrels against Washington's veteran Erasmo Ramirez.
In his 11th professional season, Ramirez profiles as a below average right-hander with a career 4.31 xFIP and a 18.3% strikeout percentage.
To best counter his ability to induce ground-balls, Atlanta combinations should include their best power fly-ball hitters including Ronald Acuna (39.6% fly-ball rate, 14.7% barrel percentage), Dansby Swanson (40.4% fly-ball percentage, 12.1% barrel rate), Matt Olson (12.1% barrel rate, 40.3% fly-ball percentage), and Austin Riley (37.9% fly-ball percentage, 15.8% barrel rate).
In a matchup against Glenn Otto, the Mariners' offense contains another undervalued 4.9 run total against a struggling right-hander with a troubling 13.4% walk rate and a 5.08 xFIP.
Seattle's correlations should first involve left-handed bats to first attack Otto's main weakness (career .519 xFIP in 35.0 career inning) including Carlos Santana (.370 expected wOBA, .468 expected slugging) and Jesse Winker (.360 expected wOBA, .461 expected slugging) while exciting Rookie of the Year contender Julio Rodriguez (14% barrel rate, .355 expected wOBA), Eugenio Suarez (14.4% barrel rate, .353 expected wOBA), and Ty France (.350 expected wOBA, .453 expected slugging) present additional stacking upside.