MLB Betting Guide: Monday 7/25/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Marlins Moneyline (+114): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Marlins +1.5 (-182): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model is liking the Marlins to win at a 53.7% rate and is seeing value both on their moneyline and runline.
Miami will be putting Trevor Rogers (4-9) on the hill. Rogers has a 5.46 ERA but a not-as-bad 4.96 expected ERA on the season. Starting for the Reds is fellow lefty Nick Lodolo (2-3 with a 5.81 ERA and 4.39 expected ERA).
Miami has the edge in bullpen strength (91 active-roster xFIP- compared to a 109 for the Reds).
In total, not a ton is separating the two teams in our model, and that's why it's siding with the underdogs here. Miami is rating out as 70.5% likely to cover the runline.
Phillies Moneyline (+158): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Phillies +1.5 (-108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Both offenses are above average against left-handed pitching and offer better-than-average bullpens, as well.
Among the 25 most comparable games to this one in numberFire's database, teams similar to the Phillies have a 16-9 record outright and are 19-6 on the runline. The home advantage is looking strong for the Phillies, according to the model.
Cubs Moneyline (-148): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Cubs -1.5 (+146): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
JT Brubaker (2-8, 4.02 ERA, 3.85 expected ERA) has strikeout upside but doesn't really do well to limit free passes (he has a 9.5% walk rate), which should certainly benefit the Cubs.
In the other half of the inning, we'll be seeing Adrian Sampson (0-1, 3.34 ERA, 3.69 expected ERA) build on a 32.1-inning sample for the year.
The Cubs' active roster (107 wRC+, 31.7% hard-hit rate) hits righties much better than the Pirates' (73 wRC+, 29.6% hard-hit rate) and should be able to draw walks (9.3%), too.
Teams representing the Cubs in our strongest predictor matchups are 16-9 outright and 14-11 on the runline.