MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 8/1/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | Marco Gonzales | 9.0 | 5.14 | 40.9% | 25.9% | 14.8% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| NYM | Patrick Corbin | 8.0 | 4.84 | 35.6% | 21.5% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| CHW | Brad Keller | 8.5 | 4.69 | 33.0% | 19.4% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| CLE | Zach Davies | 8.5 | 4.59 | 31.3% | 18.1% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| HOU | Nathan Eovaldi | 8.0 | 4.50 | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| TEX | Spenser Watkins | 8.0 | 4.40 | 28.0% | 15.6% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| SD | Antonio Senzatela | 7.5 | 4.35 | 27.2% | 15.0% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| LAD | Logan Webb | 7.5 | 3.99 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| ARI | Cal Quantrill | 8.5 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| SEA | Domingo German | 9.0 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| KC | Michael Kopech | 8.5 | 3.81 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| BAL | Jon Gray | 8.0 | 3.60 | 15.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| SF | Andrew Heaney | 7.5 | 3.51 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| BOS | Luis Garcia | 8.0 | 3.50 | 14.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| WSH | Max Scherzer | 8.0 | 3.16 | 10.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| COL | Mike Clevinger | 7.5 | 3.15 | 10.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | WSH | 7.8 | 95.1% | 88.6% | 78.7% | 65.8% | 51.5% | 37.5% | 25.5% |
| Jon Gray | BAL | 6.7 | 89.8% | 79.3% | 65.2% | 49.7% | 34.9% | 22.7% | 13.6% |
| Luis Garcia | BOS | 6.2 | 86.7% | 74.3% | 58.9% | 42.9% | 28.7% | 17.6% | 10.0% |
| Jesus Luzardo | CIN | 6.0 | 84.9% | 71.5% | 55.4% | 39.4% | 25.6% | 15.3% | 8.4% |
| Hunter Greene | MIA | 5.9 | 83.7% | 69.7% | 53.3% | 37.3% | 23.8% | 14.0% | 7.5% |
| Logan Webb | LAD | 5.8 | 83.4% | 69.3% | 52.8% | 36.8% | 23.4% | 13.7% | 7.3% |
| Mike Clevinger | COL | 5.6 | 80.8% | 65.6% | 48.6% | 32.8% | 20.2% | 11.3% | 5.9% |
| Michael Kopech | KC | 5.3 | 77.6% | 61.2% | 43.8% | 28.4% | 16.8% | 9.0% | 4.5% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | HOU | 5.3 | 77.3% | 60.9% | 43.5% | 28.1% | 16.5% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| Andrew Heaney | SF | 5.2 | 76.7% | 60.1% | 42.6% | 27.4% | 16.0% | 8.5% | 4.1% |
| Tarik Skubal | MIN | 4.9 | 72.2% | 54.4% | 36.8% | 22.5% | 12.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | NYM | 4.8 | 71.0% | 52.9% | 35.4% | 21.3% | 11.6% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Domingo German | SEA | 4.7 | 68.6% | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.1% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Cal Quantrill | ARI | 4.4 | 64.4% | 45.3% | 28.3% | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Brad Keller | CHW | 4.2 | 61.2% | 41.8% | 25.3% | 13.7% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Marco Gonzales | NYY | 4.2 | 60.8% | 41.4% | 25.0% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Chris Archer | DET | 4.0 | 56.3% | 36.7% | 21.2% | 10.9% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Antonio Senzatela | SD | 3.5 | 45.3% | 26.5% | 13.6% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Spenser Watkins | TEX | 3.1 | 38.0% | 20.5% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Zach Davies | CLE | 2.6 | 26.6% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | No | 103 | Domingo German | 27.2% | +270 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | Yes | 106 | Patrick Corbin | 25.8% | +290 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | Yes | 103 | Marco Gonzales | 25.3% | +295 |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | Yes | 98 | Tarik Skubal | 23.1% | +335 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | 95 | Jon Gray | 22.0% | +355 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Yes | 102 | Nathan Eovaldi | 22.0% | +355 |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | Yes | 98 | Tarik Skubal | 21.6% | +365 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 20.6% | +385 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | 103 | Zach Davies | 20.6% | +385 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yes | 109 | Domingo German | 20.3% | +395 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Zach Davies | 20.0% | +400 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | No | 96 | Mike Clevinger | 19.7% | +405 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | No | 106 | Michael Kopech | 19.5% | +415 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | No | 109 | Marco Gonzales | 19.3% | +420 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | Yes | 101 | Spenser Watkins | 19.1% | +420 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | 106 | Patrick Corbin | 18.6% | +435 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 18.5% | +440 |
| Brandon Drury | CIN | Yes | 90 | Jesus Luzardo | 18.1% | +450 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 101 | Spenser Watkins | 18.0% | +455 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | No | 95 | Spenser Watkins | 17.9% | +455 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | No | 101 | Nathan Eovaldi | 17.6% | +465 |
| Luke Voit | SD | No | 96 | Antonio Senzatela | 17.5% | +470 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | Yes | 98 | Tarik Skubal | 17.5% | +470 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | Yes | 102 | Nathan Eovaldi | 17.5% | +470 |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 17.0% | +490 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | Yes | 103 | Marco Gonzales | 16.9% | +490 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | No | 90 | Logan Webb | 16.7% | +500 |
| Jesse Winker | SEA | Yes | 109 | Domingo German | 16.4% | +510 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | No | 95 | Spenser Watkins | 16.2% | +515 |
| Joey Votto | CIN | No | 92 | Jesus Luzardo | 15.9% | +525 |
| Christian Vazquez | BOS | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 15.8% | +535 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | Yes | 103 | Marco Gonzales | 15.5% | +545 |
| Trent Grisham | SD | Yes | 95 | Antonio Senzatela | 15.3% | +555 |
| Juan Soto | WSH | Yes | 104 | Max Scherzer | 15.1% | +560 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 90 | Logan Webb | 15.0% | +570 |
| Dan Vogelbach | NYM | No | 104 | Patrick Corbin | 14.8% | +575 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 101 | Jon Gray | 14.8% | +575 |
| Tommy Pham | CIN | Yes | 90 | Jesus Luzardo | 14.5% | +590 |
| Manny Machado | SD | No | 96 | Antonio Senzatela | 14.5% | +590 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 14.5% | +590 |
| Starling Marte | NYM | Yes | 106 | Patrick Corbin | 14.4% | +590 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | No | 106 | Brad Keller | 14.4% | +595 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Zach Davies | 14.3% | +600 |
| Kole Calhoun | TEX | Yes | 101 | Spenser Watkins | 14.1% | +610 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | Yes | 101 | Jon Gray | 14.1% | +610 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | Yes | 90 | Andrew Heaney | 13.9% | +620 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | MIA | No | 90 | Hunter Greene | 13.8% | +625 |
| Eloy Jimenez | CHW | No | 106 | Brad Keller | 13.7% | +630 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 87 | Logan Webb | 13.6% | +635 |
| Gary Sanchez | MIN | Yes | 98 | Tarik Skubal | 13.5% | +640 |
| Javier Baez | DET | No | 98 | Chris Archer | 13.5% | +645 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | Yes | 101 | Spenser Watkins | 13.4% | +645 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | 101 | Jon Gray | 13.4% | +645 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | Yes | 95 | Mike Clevinger | 13.4% | +650 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | Yes | 90 | Jesus Luzardo | 13.3% | +655 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | No | 96 | Mike Clevinger | 13.2% | +655 |
| Jeimer Candelario | DET | Yes | 99 | Chris Archer | 13.2% | +660 |
| Nolan Jones | CLE | Yes | 103 | Zach Davies | 12.9% | +675 |
| Carlos Santana | SEA | Yes | 109 | Domingo German | 12.7% | +685 |
| Kyle Lewis | SEA | No | 103 | Domingo German | 12.6% | +690 |
| Jesus Aguilar | MIA | No | 90 | Hunter Greene | 12.5% | +700 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | No | 101 | Nathan Eovaldi | 12.4% | +705 |
| Chas McCormick | HOU | No | 101 | Nathan Eovaldi | 12.4% | +705 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | 87 | Logan Webb | 12.4% | +705 |
| Jason Vosler | SF | No | 87 | Andrew Heaney | 12.2% | +720 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 106 | Brad Keller | 12.2% | +720 |
| Jake McCarthy | ARI | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 12.1% | +725 |
| Alek Thomas | ARI | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 12.1% | +725 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Yes | 95 | Antonio Senzatela | 12.0% | +730 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | No | 96 | Mike Clevinger | 11.9% | +740 |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | No | 95 | Jon Gray | 11.8% | +750 |
| Tucker Barnhart | DET | Yes | 99 | Chris Archer | 11.7% | +750 |
| Harold Castro | DET | Yes | 99 | Chris Archer | 11.7% | +750 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | No | 101 | Nathan Eovaldi | 11.7% | +755 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | No | 101 | Nathan Eovaldi | 11.7% | +755 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | SF | No | 87 | Andrew Heaney | 11.7% | +755 |
| Gavin Sheets | CHW | Yes | 111 | Brad Keller | 11.3% | +780 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | 111 | Michael Kopech | 11.3% | +780 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | Yes | 106 | Patrick Corbin | 11.3% | +785 |
| Kris Bryant | COL | No | 96 | Mike Clevinger | 11.2% | +795 |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | No | 104 | Patrick Corbin | 11.1% | +800 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | 95 | Jon Gray | 11.1% | +800 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | No | 90 | Logan Webb | 10.6% | +845 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | Yes | 98 | Tarik Skubal | 10.6% | +845 |
| Jarren Duran | BOS | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia | 10.5% | +850 |
| Joey Bart | SF | Yes | 90 | Andrew Heaney | 10.5% | +850 |
| Elias Diaz | COL | No | 96 | Mike Clevinger | 10.5% | +855 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | No | 95 | Spenser Watkins | 10.4% | +860 |
| Riley Greene | DET | Yes | 99 | Chris Archer | 10.3% | +875 |
| Bobby Dalbec | BOS | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 10.2% | +880 |
| Kyle Higashioka | NYY | Yes | 103 | Marco Gonzales | 10.2% | +880 |
| Jake Fraley | CIN | No | 92 | Jesus Luzardo | 10.0% | +900 |
| Josh Bell | WSH | Yes | 104 | Max Scherzer | 9.9% | +910 |
| Eric Hosmer | SD | Yes | 95 | Antonio Senzatela | 9.9% | +910 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Yes | 95 | Antonio Senzatela | 9.9% | +910 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | No | 106 | Michael Kopech | 9.9% | +910 |
| Jake Lamb | LAD | Yes | 87 | Logan Webb | 9.8% | +920 |
| Abraham Toro | SEA | Yes | 109 | Domingo German | 9.5% | +955 |
| Tommy La Stella | SF | No | 87 | Andrew Heaney | 9.5% | +955 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | Yes | 103 | Marco Gonzales | 9.4% | +965 |
| Josh Harrison | CHW | No | 106 | Brad Keller | 9.1% | +1000 |
| Tim Anderson | CHW | No | 106 | Brad Keller | 9.1% | +1000 |
| Luis Garcia | WSH | No | 106 | Max Scherzer | 9.1% | +1000 |
| Mike Papierski | CIN | Yes | 90 | Jesus Luzardo | 9.1% | +1005 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia | 8.9% | +1020 |
| Lewin Diaz | MIA | Yes | 92 | Hunter Greene | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Leody Taveras | TEX | Yes | 101 | Spenser Watkins | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | Yes | 111 | Brad Keller | 8.8% | +1040 |
| Mike Moustakas | CIN | No | 92 | Jesus Luzardo | 8.8% | +1040 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Aaron Hicks | NYY | Yes | 103 | Marco Gonzales | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Franmil Reyes | CLE | No | 99 | Zach Davies | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Buddy Kennedy | ARI | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | Yes | 95 | Mike Clevinger | 8.4% | +1090 |
| Connor Joe | COL | No | 96 | Mike Clevinger | 8.3% | +1105 |
| Gilberto Celestino | MIN | Yes | 98 | Tarik Skubal | 8.2% | +1125 |
| Joey Wendle | MIA | Yes | 92 | Hunter Greene | 8.1% | +1125 |
| Franchy Cordero | BOS | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia | 8.1% | +1130 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 101 | Jon Gray | 8.1% | +1140 |
| Christian Arroyo | BOS | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Yasmani Grandal | CHW | Yes | 111 | Brad Keller | 7.9% | +1165 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | Yes | 109 | Domingo German | 7.8% | +1190 |
| Austin Hedges | CLE | No | 99 | Zach Davies | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Carson Kelly | ARI | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Myles Straw | CLE | No | 99 | Zach Davies | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | No | 98 | Chris Archer | 7.7% | +1205 |
| Trey Mancini | BAL | No | 95 | Jon Gray | 7.5% | +1240 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | No | 95 | Jon Gray | 7.5% | +1240 |
| Yadiel Hernandez | WSH | Yes | 104 | Max Scherzer | 7.4% | +1245 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 106 | Brad Keller | 7.4% | +1250 |
| Josh Rojas | ARI | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Robbie Grossman | DET | Yes | 99 | Chris Archer | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Victor Reyes | DET | Yes | 99 | Chris Archer | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Avisail Garcia | MIA | No | 90 | Hunter Greene | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 90 | Logan Webb | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | No | 101 | Nathan Eovaldi | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Nick Pratto | KC | Yes | 111 | Michael Kopech | 7.0% | +1335 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | Yes | 90 | Jesus Luzardo | 6.8% | +1375 |
| Nelson Cruz | WSH | No | 106 | Max Scherzer | 6.5% | +1430 |
