FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 8/1/22
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our projections and batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate.
Scherzer is the clear-cut top arm on this slate, and I don't see much of a reason to look elsewhere. He's been dominant in five starts since coming off the IL, racking up a 35.7% strikeout rate and 1.79 FIP in that span. He should overpower the Washington Nationals, an offense that is 21st in wOBA (.303) and could lose Josh Bell and Juan Soto to a trade before this game starts. Washington's 3.16 implied total is the night's second-lowest.
The salary is up there, and Scherzer will be super popular. But neither of those things bother me that much. He's by far the best play, and there is enough value offensively to make his salary work.
We project Scherzer for 41.4 FanDuel points and 7.7 strikeouts -- both of which are slate-best numbers, the former being a slate-high mark by 7.1 points.
After Scherzer, Jon Gray ($10,000) is the next-best option. He's got a 3.46 SIERA and 27.1% strikeout rate for the year, but he's taken the punchouts to a new level of late, amassing a 30.0% strikeout rate over his last six outings. In that six-game run, Gray has fanned at least eight in four of his starts.
Taking on a Baltimore Orioles offense that is 25th in wOBA (.301), Gray checks a lot of boxes. The one he doesn't check is being Max Scherzer. Still, our algorithm has Gray scoring 34.3 FanDuel points, and he's on his own as the number-two hurler.
Mike Clevinger ($8,500) has some appeal as a value target, although he hasn't shown a high ceiling this season -- putting up more than 36 FanDuel points just twice (43- and 46-point outings). The matchup is definitely there, though, as Clevinger gets the Colorado Rockies at Petco. The Rockies' 3.15 implied total is a slate-low mark.
The owner of a 13.5% swinging-strike rate over his last five starts, Clevinger could pop for a spike game in this matchup. We have him going for 30.4 FanDuel points.
Stacks to Target
New York Yankees
Gonzales has always been a low-strikeout lefty, and that's been no different in 2022. He sports a 12.4% strikeout rate and 7.7% swinging-strike rate -- both of which are career-low clips. His 5.15 SIERA is another career-worst number. He should be in a world of hurt tonight in the Bronx.
Aaron Judge ($5,000) is the belle of the ball in Yanks stacks, although the salary is sky high. Judge has mashed his way to a .389 wOBA, 50.0% hard-hit rate and 40.9% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage this campaign.
DJ LeMahieu ($3,300), Gleyber Torres ($3,200), Josh Donaldson ($2,700), Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($2,500) and Aaron Hicks ($2,700) will all hit from the right side. Anthony Rizzo ($3,700) is by no means a cross-off despite the lefty-lefty matchup.
New York Mets
Corbin has a 19.5% strikeout rate and 9.8% swinging-strike rate overall. Righties have tagged him for a .387 wOBA, 38.4% hard-hit rate and 1.65 jacks per nine. That's where we should focus our Mets stacks.
Pete Alonso ($4,100) is the standout bat for the Mets. He owns a .362 wOBA and 42.3% fly-ball rate versus southpaws in 2022. In the past seven days, Alonso has piled up a massive .540 wOBA with six extra-base hits, including two homers.
While Starling Marte ($3,800) and Francisco Lindor ($3,600) are quality plays who will hit from the right side, one of the reasons to like the Mets today is that they offer us some cap-friendly righties in Eduardo Escobar ($2,600), Mark Canha ($2,500) and J.D. Davis ($2,300). Escobar, a switch-hitter, is much better versus left-handers, recording .352 wOBA and 49.4% fly-ball rate in the split.
Using Scherzer and stacking the Yankees and/or Mets will probably be the popular build tonight. You can dodge the chalk by turning to a different stack.
Enter the Houston Astros.
Houston has a 4.50 implied total for their date with Nathan Eovaldi. Normally a fine pitcher, Eovaldi is off right now. His average fastball velocity has been down for four straight starts, and he's been hammered over his past three games, permitting 16 earned runs in 13 innings.
The Astros are one of the game's elite offenses, and they probably won't be as popular as the Mets and Yankees are.
We should be salivating at the chance to get Yordan Alvarez ($4,600) against a righty at anything other than a huge draft percentage. Arguably the best hitter in the game right now, Alvarez boasts a laughable .477 expected wOBA overall. Against righties, he's slugged his way to a .482 wOBA, 44.0% hard-hit rate and 40.3% fly-ball rate. Those numbers seem fake.
Kyle Tucker ($3,700) is another priority for me, and if you don't want to full-on stack Houston, Alvarez and Tucker are a mini-stack with slate-winning upside. With the platoon advantage this season, Tucker has registered a .361 wOBA and 49.7% fly-ball rate in the split.
Jose Altuve ($3,800), Alex Bregman ($3,000), Jeremy Pena ($3,100), Yuli Gurriel ($2,400) and Aledmys Diaz ($2,700) are solid options at various salaries. Gurriel has been slotted second lately and is a sweet value if he's there again. Diaz has three dongs over his last two starts and can be used at short, second and third.