3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/8/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home (+255)
Matt Chapman To Hit a Home Run (+310)
Right from the jump, we have to note the fantastic hitting weather in Baltimore tonight. An extra boost to the hitters is always a good thing, especially when they have a favorable matchup. The Blue Jays are up against Jordan Lyles, who comes in allowing a .398 SLG, a 4.22 xFIP, and a 39.1% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters this season. Yet, that's only resulted in 0.67 HR/9.
Somehow, Lyles is allowing a very high fly-ball rate, yet so few of them are going for home runs. His HR/9 is better than what he finished with last season (2.00 HR/9) and what he has for his entire career (1.29 HR/9). Lyles is due for some regression this season against right-handed hitters.
We turn to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who comes in with a 144 wRC+, a .376 wOBA, a .226 ISO, a 39.6% hard-contact rate, and a 22.1% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers.
Next would be Matt Chapman, who is sporting a 114 wRC+, a .333 wOBA, a .221 ISO, 52.4% fly-ball rate, and a 43.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Of course, I'll be adding Guerrero To Record an RBI (+105) and Chapman To Record an RBI (+135), too.
Logan Gilbert Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-134)
When it comes to pitching props tonight, the under for Logan Gilbert is a spot I'm looking at.
Gilbert is a good pitcher, but he isn't a big strikeout pitcher and has been struggling in recent starts. On the season, Gilbert has a 22.7% strikeout rate, which is barely above the league average (22.3%). Since the start of July, Gilbert has six starts under his belt and has posted a strikeout rate of 21.1% or lower in three of those starts.
He isn't racking up the strikeouts and now faces a tough New York Yankees lineup. This season, the Yankees have a 21.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 10th lowest in the league. They also come in with a 120 wRC+ and a .192 ISO in this split -- both of which are in the top three of the league.
None of this bodes well for Gilbert, pointing to the under on 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
Dan Vogelbach To Record an RBI (+125)
The New York Mets have a great matchup for their hitters tonight.
With a slate-high 5.61 implied run total, the Mets are expected to score plenty of runs. They are set to face Justin Dunn, who will make his season and team debut for the Cincinnati Reds. Dunn hasn't pitched this season but has been in the MLB since 2019 and has a total of 102.2 innings pitched, which is a solid sample size.
Over the course of his career, Dunn has allowed a .421 SLG, a .351 wOBA, a 6.46 xFIP, 1.94 HR/9, a 20.8% walk rate, a 45.9% fly-ball rate, and a 40.6% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters.
Yikes. Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on the slate, thus the very high implied team total for the Mets.
This leads us to Dan Vogelbach, who comes in with a 160 wRC+, a .398 wOBA, a .268 ISO, a 46.6% fly-ball rate, and a 35.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
The platoon advantage is very favorable for Vogelbach, which is why I'll also look to add Vogelbach 2+ RBI (+420).