MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/10/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
Tigers Moneyline (+152): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees some value on -- gasp -- the Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers are taking on the Cleveland Guardians and righty Aaron Civale. Detroit's offensive struggles, particularly versus righties, have been well documented. With that said, Civale isn't a pitcher to fear. He's sporting a meager 20.5% strikeout rate in 178 1/3 frames since the start of 2021. He's allowed 1.56 dingers per nine in that time thanks to a 38.0% fly-ball rate.
Detroit is countering with Drew Hutchison. He isn't good, either, recording ugly marks of a 14.6% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate this season. However, he's been OK lately, permitting just three earned runs across his last two outings (11 innings), and the matchup against a Cleveland offense that is 21st in wOBA (.294) over the last 14 days isn't a bad one.
While we project the Guardians to win this game 55.8% of the time, there's value in taking Detroit on the moneyline. Their +152 price implies win odds of 39.7%, but we give them a 44.2% chance to win. We rate it as a one-star wager (one-unit recommendation).
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Over 8.5 (-122): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Johnny Cueto and Kris Bubic square off tonight at Kauffman Stadium, and we should see some offensive fireworks.
Cueto is toting a 2.91 ERA, but that's mostly a mirage. He owns a 3.99 expected ERA with a 4.40 SIERA. The veteran right-hander is striking out only 16.6% of hitters while allowing a 38.0% fly-ball rate. The Kansas City Royals' bats should be able to have a solid night, and we project them to score 4.95 runs.
The Chicago White Sox can do even more damage offensively. Bubic, a lefty, has a meh 21.7% strikeout rate against righties, and he has a tall task today versus a Chicago lineup that will feature the likes of Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez -- all right-handed hitters. We have the Pale Hose plating 5.57 runs.
That's 10.52 total runs -- well over the listed total. Our model projects the over to cash 66.9% of the time and hands it a three-star rating.
