3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/26/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Daniel Vogelbach To Hit a Home Run (+430)
The New York Mets have a strong 5.37 implied run total tonight and have a great matchup for home runs.
This matchup should put the Mets near the top of the list for some player props on tonight's 14-game slate. They are set to take on Chad Kuhl, a pitcher who has struggled significantly this season, especially with fly balls.
This year versus left-handed hitters, Kuhl is allowing a .493 SLG, a .371 wOBA, a 5.32 xFIP, 1.47 HR/9, a 39.4% fly-ball rate, and a 37.6% hard-contact rate. He's essentially the perfect fit for the type of pitcher I like to target for home run props.
We turn to Dan Vogelbach, who comes in with a 154 wRC+, a .390 wOBA, a .265 ISO, a 47.2% fly-ball rate, and a 37.5% hard-contact rate versus righties. This is truly a superb match for the 40-40 line I look for when it comes to batted ball metrics.
Since this is a very favorable matchup, I'll also be adding Vogelbach To Record an RBI (+130).
Jose Quintana Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Another day, another under on a strikeout prop.
Tonight, that means going to the under 4.5 strikeouts for Jose Quintana of the St. Louis Cardinals. Quintana comes in with a modest 20.3% strikeout rate and a 10.7% swinging-strike rate. Those are both below the league averages, which sit at a 22.3% strikeout rate and an 11.1% swinging-strike rate. Simply put, he isn't a big-time strikeout pitcher.
Since the start of July, Quintana has a total of nine starts and has hit the under at this line in six of the outings. Tonight, he's up against the Atlanta Braves, who come in with a 23.0% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the 11th-worst in the league.
While this may seem like a somewhat favorable matchup, we have to account for the fact the Braves' offense is very powerful and capable of posting plenty of runs in a hurry. They own a .186 ISO versus lefties, which is the fifth-best in the league, and a 118 wRC+ in the split, which is the fourth-best.
Quintana is not a big strikeout pitcher and faces an offense that can run him out of the game early with the power they have.
Yordan Alvarez To Record an RBI (+130)
A great hitter with a plus-money prop? Sign me up.
That hitter would be Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros, who come in with a solid 4.58 implied run total. They are at home to take on Kyle Bradish, putting many of the Astros' hitters in a favorable matchup.
This season, Bradish is allowing a .374 SLG, a .317 wOBA, a 9.8% walk rate, and a 16.7% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters. Alvarez has been a borderline MVP candidate for most of the season and has the numbers to jump on this matchup.
Alvarez has put up a 188 wRC+, a .430 wOBA, a .328 ISO, a 39.8% fly-ball rate, and a 46.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He has plenty of power and plenty of RBI potential every night. I'm also looking to add Alvarez 2+ RBIs (+470).
