3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/29/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rhys Hoskins To Hit a Home Run (+285)
The Philadelphia Phillies are in a bounce-back spot and have a favorable matchup to pour on some runs.
After losing 5-0 yesterday to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Phillies need to get on the right track to keep pace in the National League wild card race. They come in with a solid 4.80 implied tonight and are set to take on Madison Bumgarner, putting them in a spot for some home runs.
This season, Bumgarner is allowing a .498 SLG, .362 wOBA, 4.60 xFIP, 1.50 HR/9, 41.1% fly-ball rate, and 39.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Bumgarner is the near-ideal target for home run props, as he is right at the 40-40 line in fly-ball rate and hard-contact rate.
We turn to Rhys Hoskins, who comes in with a 178 wRC+, .430 wOBA, .295 ISO, 49.4% fly-ball rate, and 36.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
It's a great matchup all around, that's why I'm also going to Hoskins To Record an RBI (+125).
Jose Berrios Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
The Toronto Blue Jays are another team in need of a win.
After getting swept by the Los Angeles Angels, the Blue Jays are in desperate need of a win with a tight American League wild card race heating up. Tonight, they turn to Jose Berrios on the mound, who has a favorable matchup against the Chicago Cubs.
This season, Berrios has a modest 21.2% strikeout rate, but we've seen him push that higher since the All-Star break. In his six starts since the break, Berrios has posted a 24.0% strikeout rate or higher in four of the outings. In three of the outings, he was up at 27.3%, 28.0%, and 32.1% strikeout rates.
In those four starts, he posted six strikeouts or more, including one at nine strikeouts. Those are some solid numbers, and that's what we could be seeing from him tonight. The Cubs come in with a 23.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the ninth-worst in the league.
In what could be considered a minor note, we should account for the fact the Blue Jays' bullpen was a bit taxed over the weekend after getting swept by the Angels. This could be a good sign for Berrios, as they may need some extra length from him, giving him extra chances to rack up the strikeouts.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Record an RBI (+100)
As noted above, the Blue Jays need a win tonight.
They lost three in a row to one of the worst teams in the league, scoring a total of three runs in the process. It's simply not good enough, and their offense needs to get things going.
They come in with a slate-high 5.66 implied run total and are set to take on Javier Assad, who will be making his second career MLB start. There's nothing we can conclude from the 4.0 innings Assad had in his first MLB outing, so we're leaning on the skill of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladdy comes in with a 143 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .225 ISO, 39.7% hard-contact rate, and 31.5% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Vladdy has great stats -- we all know this. He's been held without an RBI in three straight games and is in a spot to bounce back.
I'm also going to Guerrero 2+ RBI (+350) since that number is rather high for an elite hitter facing a rookie pitcher.
