MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 8/29/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | Chase Anderson | 9.5 | 5.61 | 49.0% | 33.1% | 20.4% | 11.5% | 6.0% |
| TOR | Javier Assad | 9.0 | 5.37 | 44.9% | 29.4% | 17.5% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
| PHI | Madison Bumgarner | 9.0 | 5.08 | 39.8% | 25.0% | 14.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| NYY | Jose Suarez | 8.0 | 4.50 | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| MIN | Brayan Bello | 8.5 | 4.39 | 27.8% | 15.5% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| BOS | Dylan Bundy | 8.5 | 4.11 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| LAD | Pablo Lopez | 7.0 | 4.10 | 23.1% | 12.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| SF | Mike Clevinger | 7.5 | 3.97 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| ARI | Ranger Suarez | 9.0 | 3.92 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| CIN | Miles Mikolas | 9.5 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| CHC | Jose Berrios | 9.0 | 3.63 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| SD | Carlos Rodon | 7.5 | 3.53 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| LAA | Frankie Montas | 8.0 | 3.50 | 14.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| MIA | Tony Gonsolin | 7.0 | 2.90 | 7.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | PIT | 8.1 | 96.1% | 90.6% | 81.9% | 70.0% | 56.2% | 42.3% | 29.7% |
| Carlos Rodon | SD | 7.3 | 93.0% | 84.9% | 73.0% | 58.7% | 43.8% | 30.4% | 19.6% |
| Jose Berrios | CHC | 6.2 | 86.3% | 73.6% | 58.0% | 41.9% | 27.8% | 17.0% | 9.5% |
| Frankie Montas | LAA | 5.9 | 84.2% | 70.4% | 54.1% | 38.1% | 24.5% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
| Pablo Lopez | LAD | 5.3 | 77.0% | 60.4% | 43.0% | 27.7% | 16.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Tony Gonsolin | MIA | 5.2 | 76.7% | 60.1% | 42.6% | 27.4% | 16.0% | 8.5% | 4.1% |
| Miles Mikolas | CIN | 5.0 | 73.2% | 55.6% | 38.1% | 23.5% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Jose Suarez | NYY | 4.9 | 71.9% | 54.0% | 36.5% | 22.2% | 12.2% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| Ranger Suarez | ARI | 4.8 | 70.9% | 52.7% | 35.2% | 21.2% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Mike Clevinger | SF | 4.5 | 65.1% | 46.0% | 29.0% | 16.4% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Madison Bumgarner | PHI | 4.2 | 59.7% | 40.2% | 24.0% | 12.8% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Brayan Bello | MIN | 4.1 | 59.0% | 39.5% | 23.4% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Duane Underwood Jr. | MIL | 4.0 | 55.7% | 36.1% | 20.7% | 10.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Dylan Bundy | BOS | 3.7 | 50.6% | 31.3% | 17.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Javier Assad | TOR | 3.6 | 48.1% | 29.0% | 15.3% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Chase Anderson | STL | 3.3 | 42.0% | 23.7% | 11.7% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Yohan Ramirez | MIL | 1.6 | 8.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | STL | No | 111 | Chase Anderson | 30.8% | +225 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | No | 111 | Chase Anderson | 28.4% | +250 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 27.1% | +270 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | No | 101 | Javier Assad | 26.1% | +285 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | No | 101 | Javier Assad | 24.8% | +305 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | No | 101 | Javier Assad | 24.8% | +305 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | No | 99 | Madison Bumgarner | 24.0% | +315 |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | Yes | 113 | Chase Anderson | 22.6% | +345 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 22.3% | +350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 21.9% | +355 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | No | 108 | Jose Suarez | 21.1% | +375 |
| George Springer | TOR | No | 101 | Javier Assad | 21.0% | +375 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 20.5% | +390 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | Yes | 101 | Duane Underwood Jr. | 20.3% | +395 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 20.2% | +395 |
| Keston Hiura | MIL | No | 103 | Duane Underwood Jr. | 20.2% | +395 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 20.1% | +400 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | No | 99 | Madison Bumgarner | 19.8% | +405 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 94 | Jose Berrios | 19.8% | +405 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 19.7% | +410 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 19.5% | +415 |
| Franmil Reyes | CHC | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 19.4% | +415 |
| Manny Machado | SD | Yes | 90 | Carlos Rodon | 19.2% | +420 |
| Brandon Drury | SD | Yes | 90 | Carlos Rodon | 19.2% | +420 |
| Jordan Luplow | ARI | Yes | 93 | Ranger Suarez | 18.6% | +440 |
| Trevor Story | BOS | No | 98 | Dylan Bundy | 18.4% | +445 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | No | 98 | Brayan Bello | 18.4% | +445 |
| Tyler O'Neill | STL | No | 111 | Chase Anderson | 18.3% | +445 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | No | 111 | Miles Mikolas | 17.7% | +465 |
| Colin Moran | CIN | Yes | 113 | Miles Mikolas | 17.6% | +470 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 17.6% | +470 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | No | 103 | Duane Underwood Jr. | 17.3% | +480 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 90 | Pablo Lopez | 17.2% | +480 |
| Jake Fraley | CIN | Yes | 113 | Miles Mikolas | 16.9% | +490 |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | Yes | 113 | Chase Anderson | 16.9% | +490 |
| Franchy Cordero | BOS | Yes | 99 | Dylan Bundy | 16.5% | +505 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | No | 101 | Javier Assad | 15.8% | +535 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 15.8% | +535 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | Yes | 93 | Madison Bumgarner | 15.6% | +540 |
| Evan Longoria | SF | No | 90 | Mike Clevinger | 15.5% | +545 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 90 | Pablo Lopez | 15.5% | +545 |
| Joey Gallo | LAD | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 15.5% | +545 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 98 | Dylan Bundy | 15.4% | +550 |
| Joc Pederson | SF | Yes | 87 | Mike Clevinger | 15.4% | +550 |
| Enrique Hernandez | BOS | No | 98 | Dylan Bundy | 14.8% | +575 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | No | 98 | Brayan Bello | 14.8% | +575 |
| Luis Urias | MIL | No | 103 | Duane Underwood Jr. | 14.7% | +580 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | Yes | 93 | Madison Bumgarner | 14.3% | +600 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | Yes | 108 | Frankie Montas | 14.2% | +605 |
| Tommy Pham | BOS | No | 98 | Dylan Bundy | 14.1% | +610 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | No | 101 | Javier Assad | 13.8% | +625 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | Yes | 93 | Ranger Suarez | 13.6% | +635 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 93 | Ranger Suarez | 13.6% | +635 |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | Yes | 99 | Brayan Bello | 13.2% | +660 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | No | 90 | Mike Clevinger | 13.1% | +660 |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | No | 90 | Pablo Lopez | 13.1% | +660 |
| Corey Dickerson | STL | Yes | 113 | Chase Anderson | 13.1% | +660 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 13.1% | +660 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 13.0% | +670 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 12.7% | +690 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | No | 98 | Brayan Bello | 12.1% | +725 |
| Josh Bell | SD | Yes | 90 | Carlos Rodon | 11.9% | +740 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 11.7% | +755 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 98 | Dylan Bundy | 11.4% | +775 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | No | 90 | Pablo Lopez | 11.2% | +790 |
| Kolten Wong | MIL | Yes | 101 | Duane Underwood Jr. | 11.2% | +795 |
| Jo Adell | LAA | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 11.2% | +795 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | Yes | 108 | Frankie Montas | 11.1% | +805 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 11.0% | +810 |
| JJ Bleday | MIA | Yes | 92 | Tony Gonsolin | 11.0% | +810 |
| Jake Cave | MIN | Yes | 99 | Brayan Bello | 11.0% | +810 |
| Luis Arraez | MIN | Yes | 99 | Brayan Bello | 11.0% | +810 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | Yes | 93 | Madison Bumgarner | 10.8% | +825 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | ARI | Yes | 93 | Ranger Suarez | 10.8% | +825 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | Yes | 101 | Duane Underwood Jr. | 10.4% | +860 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | No | 103 | Duane Underwood Jr. | 10.4% | +860 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 10.3% | +870 |
| Juan Soto | SD | No | 87 | Carlos Rodon | 10.1% | +895 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | No | 99 | Madison Bumgarner | 10.0% | +900 |
| Ben Gamel | PIT | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 9.7% | +935 |
| Max Kepler | MIN | Yes | 99 | Brayan Bello | 9.5% | +955 |
| Andrew Velazquez | LAA | Yes | 108 | Frankie Montas | 9.4% | +960 |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | No | 90 | Mike Clevinger | 9.2% | +985 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | SF | Yes | 87 | Mike Clevinger | 9.1% | +995 |
| Zach McKinstry | CHC | Yes | 94 | Jose Berrios | 9.1% | +1005 |
| Sandy Leon | MIN | Yes | 99 | Brayan Bello | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | TOR | No | 101 | Javier Assad | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Yadier Molina | STL | No | 111 | Chase Anderson | 8.6% | +1065 |
| Carson Kelly | ARI | Yes | 93 | Ranger Suarez | 8.6% | +1070 |
| Edmundo Sosa | PHI | Yes | 93 | Madison Bumgarner | 8.6% | +1070 |
| Joey Bart | SF | No | 90 | Mike Clevinger | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Tommy La Stella | SF | Yes | 87 | Mike Clevinger | 8.4% | +1085 |
| Gavin Lux | LAD | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 8.1% | +1125 |
| Rodolfo Castro | PIT | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 8.1% | +1140 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | No | 90 | Tony Gonsolin | 7.8% | +1180 |
| Matt Vierling | PHI | Yes | 93 | Madison Bumgarner | 7.8% | +1185 |
| Christian Arroyo | BOS | No | 98 | Dylan Bundy | 7.7% | +1205 |
| Marwin Gonzalez | NYY | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 7.7% | +1205 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Yes | 90 | Carlos Rodon | 7.5% | +1225 |
| Andrew Benintendi | NYY | No | 108 | Jose Suarez | 7.3% | +1275 |
| Omar Narvaez | MIL | Yes | 101 | Duane Underwood Jr. | 7.2% | +1280 |
| Max Stassi | LAA | No | 103 | Frankie Montas | 7.2% | +1285 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | PIT | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 7.2% | +1285 |
| Miguel Rojas | MIA | No | 90 | Tony Gonsolin | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Tommy Edman | STL | Yes | 113 | Chase Anderson | 7.1% | +1310 |
| TJ Friedl | CIN | Yes | 113 | Miles Mikolas | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Brendan Donovan | STL | Yes | 113 | Chase Anderson | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Brandon Crawford | SF | Yes | 87 | Mike Clevinger | 7.0% | +1325 |
| Alfonso Rivas | CHC | Yes | 94 | Jose Berrios | 6.8% | +1375 |
