FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 9/6/22

Coors Field looms large on a slate where the visiting Milwaukee Brewers have an implied total exceeding six runs, and no other team comes anywhere close. We're looking at temperatures cracking the 90s in Denver, too, so the ball could be flying. There's also no shortage of quality pitching, but it will be difficult to find much in the way of trustworthy value plays.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitchers

Shane Bieber ($10,800): Gerrit Cole would normally be at or near the top of the list, but some crummy weather is threatening to take his game off the board tonight. Bieber is a solid alternative against the Royals, though.

While Bieber doesn't have an elite punchout rate in 2022, he's still put together a 3.19 SIERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate, and 47.7% ground-ball rate. He's pitched efficiently all year, notching quality starts in 19 of 25 outings, and he's gone seven or more innings in six of his last nine, one of which was a complete game.

Kansas City has a 3.19 implied total and is the ideal opponent are another strong start. The Royals' active roster owns a 90 wRC+ and 23.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching this year.

Kyle Wright ($10,600): Wright was one of the biggest surprises at the beginning of the season, and he's proven that his hot start wasn't a fluke by submitting a cool 3.43 SIERA, 24.0% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and 54.3% ground-ball rate over 25 starts.

Much like the Royals, the woeful Athletics are bottom of the barrel against righties. In the split, their active roster comes in with an 89 wRC+ and 22.7% strikeout rate, and they also have a modest implied total (3.24).

Unfortunately, Wright's pitch counts are a little all over the place, which could put a dent in his upside.

Last month, he tallied 97, 77, 84, 73, and 96 pitches, and it seems like the Braves are willing to pull him at lower counts when he's already gone six or seven innings and has a comfortable lead. The good news is that Wright was simply excellent in August, and outside of one rough start, he scored 40 or more FanDuel points in the other four games.

Joe Musgrove ($10,400): This is a tough night to dip into the value range, and that's even more the case with so many solid pitchers to choose from in the upper-salary range.

In addition to the previously mentioned hurlers, we also have Framber Valdez and Musgrove as two more possibilities. Valdez does have a particularly hefty salary at $11,000, though, so let's take a look at Musgrove.

Musgrove is putting up similar numbers as Bieber and Wright, producing a 3.36 SIERA, 24.7% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate, and 46.1% ground-ball rate. And unlike Wright, Musgrove is someone we can reasonably expect to pitch into the high 90s or better when he's on his game.

His matchup isn't a bad one against Arizona, as they're just a smidge below league average versus righties (99 wRC+). However, the bigger concern for Musgrove's ceiling is that the D-backs also only have a 20.5% strikeout rate in the split.

The matchup arguably places Musgrove behind Bieber and Wright, but he still deserves to be in the mix.

Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are at Coors Field, and with Brandon Woodruff reducing interest in the Rockies' side of the equation, the Brewers will no doubt be the chalk stack. Their 6.25 implied total is easily the night's highest.

Chad Kuhl missed some time in August, but he has otherwise been a mainstay in these parts, regardless of whether he's pitching at Coors or not.

He's now at a 4.89 SIERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, and 35.6% ground-ball rate, and the home runs are really beginning to pile up. Since the beginning of July, he's given up 3.3 home runs per nine innings over his last eight starts and plenty of those were on the road.

Kuhl is struggling against both righties and lefties, but he's showing a 5.15 xFIP and 38.1% hard-hit rate allowed to the latter, so give an extra bump to Rowdy Tellez ($3,100) as well as Christian Yelich ($3,600) and Kolten Wong ($3,500).

Willy Adames ($3,800) and Hunter Renfroe ($4,200) are the top power righties as per usual. Everyone else in the lineup comes in at sub-$3,000 salaries to help fit in the big boys.

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros may not be at Coors Field, but they're in a plenty good spot at home against Glenn Otto. The Texas right-hander owns a lackluster 5.02 SIERA, 17.9% strikeout rate, and 12.0% walk rate this season, and he's another guy who doesn't have particularly strong marks against either side of the plate.

Otto does get slightly more grounders in same-sided matchups (47.7%), so that does give the lefties a slight bump when it comes to dingers. Of course, it just so happens that lefties Yordan Alvarez ($4,000) and Kyle Tucker ($3,400) are two of the best home run hitters on the team. It's worth noting, however, that Alvarez has slowed considerably in the second half and has dealt with a recent hand issue.

Jose Altuve ($4,100) and Alex Bregman ($3,600) are the obvious righties, and then we thankfully have value salaries for the rest of the crew.

Either Jeremy Pena ($2,700) or Yuli Gurriel ($2,400) should give as a low-salaried play out of the two-hole, and then both Trey Mancini ($2,700) and Chas McCormick ($2,500) can give us some cheap pop in the bottom third of the order.

Cleveland Guardians

Between the lack of appealing low-salaried options at pitcher and the sizable cap hits from some of the top bats above, a value stack could go a long way tonight.

We may have that in the Cleveland Guardians, a team with bargain-bin salaries outside of superstar Jose Ramirez ($3,800). Every other projected hitter is not only below $3,000, but several of them are at or near the minimum.

Admittedly, Cleveland isn't exactly a team littered with power bats, but this is the right matchup to string together some big innings versus Kris Bubic.

In terms of his underlying numbers, Bubic is a bit like a left-handed Otto, recording a 4.95 SIERA, 17.6% strikeout rate, and 11.1% walk rate in 2022.

What's particularly curious about Bubic, though, is that he's actually atrocious against lefties, and that's something that's played out throughout his young career. This season in the split, he has a 6.35 xFIP, 11.5% strikeout rate, and 15.5% walk rate, and he's even coughed up 2.75 homers per nine.

While there shouldn't be a ton of lefties in tonight's lineup, this does give us added incentive to roster leadoff man Steven Kwan ($2,800) and power/speed threat Andres Gimenez ($2,700). You might even consider Josh Naylor ($2,500) if he starts despite a lackluster track record in lefty-lefty spots.

Otherwise, fit in Ramirez when you can, and then make use of the punt salaries. Amed Rosario ($2,400) and Oscar Gonzalez ($2,300) should both bat in the top half of the order.