MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/9/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rhys Hoskins To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)
The Philadelphia Phillies have a solid 4.42 implied run total and a great matchup tonight.
One of the main philosophies I've had this season is to target Patrick Corbin anytime he is on the mound. That is what we have tonight as he is set to take on the Phillies, putting several of their hitters in a great spot.
Corbin comes in allowing a .524 SLG, .387 wOBA, 4.24 xFIP, 1.86 HR/9, 40.1% hard-contact rate, and 35.4% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are some of the worst numbers of any pitcher on today's slate and it gives the Phillies' offense a ton of potential tonight.
We turn to Rhys Hoskins, who is rocking a 175 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .281 ISO, 46.4% fly-ball rate, and 36.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Hoskins is elite in this split and shouldn't have any issues with Corbin.
Dustin May Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)
Next up, let's look to a strikeout prop from Dustin May.
May returned earlier this season from UCL surgery and has looked good, albeit, with limited sample size. May has only 16.0 innings pitched this season and had only 23.0 innings pitched last year before suffering the injury. This season he is carrying a 27.3% strikeout rate, and last season he had a 37.6% strikeout rate.
Yes, the small sample sizes leave time for this to settle in, but May can clearly pump gas on the mound with a 13.5% swinging-strike rate this season. This has led to him picking up five-plus strikeouts in two of his three starts this season.
Since returning, May has pitched 71, 86, and 87 pitches, an encouraging sign he will start going deeper into games. This will allow him to show off that high strikeout rate and push past 4.5 strikeouts.
He's up against the San Diego Padres, who come in with a 21.8% strikeout versus right-handed pitchers (20th in the league). It's not an overwhelmingly favorite matchup on paper, but I'm not betting against a pitcher who can push towards a 35.0% strikeout rate.
