MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 9/14/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
HOUJoey
Wentz
8.04.8635.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
TEXJP
Sears
8.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
NYYBrayan
Bello
9.04.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
BALPatrick
Corbin
8.54.6031.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
CHWKyle
Freeland
7.54.4428.7%16.1%8.2%3.8%1.6%
CINRoansy
Contreras
8.04.3827.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
MINZack
Greinke
7.54.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
BOSNestor
Cortes
9.04.3126.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
CLEPatrick
Sandoval
8.04.1724.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
SEAMike
Clevinger
7.54.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
PHIEdward
Cabrera
7.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
WSHTyler
Wells
8.53.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
ATLCarlos
Rodon
7.53.8419.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
LAACal
Quantrill
8.03.8318.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
TORDrew
Rasmussen
7.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
OAKDane
Dunning
8.53.7918.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
TBRoss
Stripling
7.53.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
SFCharlie
Morton
7.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
PITNick
Lodolo
8.03.6215.9%7.5%3.2%1.2%0.4%
MILAdam
Wainwright
7.03.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
MIAKyle
Gibson
7.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
SDLuis
Castillo
7.53.4012.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
STLCorbin
Burnes
7.03.3912.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
KCSonny
Gray
7.53.1710.2%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
DETCristian
Javier
8.03.149.9%4.1%1.5%0.5%0.2%
COLDylan
Cease
7.53.069.0%3.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Dylan
Cease
COL8.396.5%91.5%83.2%71.8%58.4%44.5%31.7%
Luis
Castillo
SD7.192.1%83.2%70.6%55.8%40.9%27.7%17.5%
Nick
Lodolo
PIT6.991.4%82.0%68.9%53.8%38.9%26.1%16.1%
Carlos
Rodon
ATL6.991.3%81.9%68.8%53.7%38.8%25.9%16.0%
David
Peterson
CHC6.588.5%77.2%62.5%46.7%32.1%20.4%11.9%
Corbin
Burnes
STL6.487.8%76.0%61.0%45.1%30.7%19.2%11.1%
Cristian
Javier
DET6.387.4%75.4%60.3%44.3%30.0%18.6%10.7%
Charlie
Morton
SF6.286.7%74.3%58.9%42.9%28.7%17.6%10.0%
Sonny
Gray
KC5.781.6%66.7%49.8%33.9%21.1%12.0%6.3%
Patrick
Sandoval
CLE5.580.3%64.9%47.8%32.0%19.5%10.9%5.6%
Nestor
Cortes
BOS5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
Drew
Rasmussen
TOR5.175.3%58.2%40.7%25.7%14.7%7.7%3.7%
Adam
Wainwright
MIL5.175.0%57.9%40.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
Dane
Dunning
OAK4.870.3%52.0%34.6%20.6%11.1%5.5%2.5%
Edward
Cabrera
PHI4.566.4%47.5%30.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
Ross
Stripling
TB4.565.9%47.0%29.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
Cal
Quantrill
LAA4.565.4%46.4%29.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
Patrick
Corbin
BAL4.463.7%44.5%27.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
Kyle
Freeland
CHW4.362.8%43.5%26.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
Dustin
May
ARI4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
Drew
Smyly
NYM4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
Mike
Clevinger
SEA4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
Roansy
Contreras
CIN4.159.3%39.8%23.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
Kyle
Gibson
MIA4.158.0%38.5%22.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
Brayan
Bello
NYY3.955.1%35.6%20.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
Zack
Greinke
MIN3.853.3%33.8%18.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
Zach
Davies
LAD3.647.8%28.8%15.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
JP
Sears
TEX3.647.8%28.8%15.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Tyler
Wells
WSH3.444.8%26.1%13.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
Joey
Wentz
HOU3.240.0%22.1%10.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Mike
Clevinger
26.2%+280
Anthony
Santander
BALYes106Patrick
Corbin
25.8%+290
C.J.
Cron
COLNo106Dylan
Cease
24.7%+305
Christian
Walker
ARINo93Dustin
May
24.3%+310
Manny
Machado
SDNo99Luis
Castillo
24.1%+315
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes103Cal
Quantrill
23.7%+320
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo99Brayan
Bello
23.6%+325
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Corbin
Burnes
23.6%+325
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes95JP
Sears
23.6%+325
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes111Nick
Lodolo
23.0%+335
Luke
Voit
WSHNo106Tyler
Wells
22.8%+340
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Drew
Rasmussen
22.5%+345
Mike
Trout
LAANo99Cal
Quantrill
22.2%+350
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Mike
Clevinger
22.1%+355
Will
Smith
LADNo93Zach
Davies
21.7%+360
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes106Patrick
Corbin
21.7%+360
Mark
Mathias
TEXYes95JP
Sears
21.6%+365
Joey
Meneses
WSHNo106Tyler
Wells
21.2%+370
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes98Drew
Smyly
21.0%+375
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Drew
Rasmussen
21.0%+375
Jake
Fraley
CINYes113Roansy
Contreras
20.8%+380
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo99Brayan
Bello
20.7%+385
Kyle
Garlick
MINNo98Zack
Greinke
20.5%+385
Trea
Turner
LADNo93Zach
Davies
20.3%+395
Austin
Riley
ATLYes90Carlos
Rodon
20.3%+395
Jose
Altuve
HOUYes99Joey
Wentz
20.1%+400
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes92Edward
Cabrera
20.0%+400
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo90Edward
Cabrera
19.8%+405
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes97Adam
Wainwright
19.7%+410
Max
Muncy
LADYes99Zach
Davies
19.4%+415
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes99Zach
Davies
19.4%+415
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes98Drew
Smyly
19.3%+415
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes111Nick
Lodolo
19.3%+420
Diego
Castillo
PITYes111Nick
Lodolo
19.3%+420
Mookie
Betts
LADNo93Zach
Davies
19.3%+420
Seth
Brown
OAKYes101Dane
Dunning
19.1%+420
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo98Sonny
Gray
18.9%+430
Tommy
Pham
BOSYes99Nestor
Cortes
18.9%+430
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUNo94Joey
Wentz
18.6%+435
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo99Brayan
Bello
18.5%+440
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo99Mike
Clevinger
18.5%+440
Ty
France
SEANo99Mike
Clevinger
18.5%+440
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Corbin
Burnes
18.4%+445
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes92Edward
Cabrera
18.4%+445
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Charlie
Morton
18.3%+445
Kyle
Tucker
HOUNo94Joey
Wentz
18.1%+450
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Mike
Clevinger
18.0%+455
Jeremy
Pena
HOUYes99Joey
Wentz
17.7%+465
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo101Ross
Stripling
17.6%+465
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWYes106Kyle
Freeland
17.3%+480
Juan
Soto
SDYes96Luis
Castillo
17.3%+480
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99Dustin
May
17.1%+485
Alan
Trejo
COLNo106Dylan
Cease
17.1%+485
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Roansy
Contreras
17.0%+485
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes98Drew
Smyly
16.9%+490
TJ
Friedl
CINYes113Roansy
Contreras
16.9%+490
Salvador
Perez
KCNo98Sonny
Gray
16.6%+500
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Charlie
Morton
16.5%+505
Joey
Gallo
LADYes99Zach
Davies
16.5%+505
J.D.
Martinez
BOSYes99Nestor
Cortes
16.4%+510
Willy
Adames
MILNo91Adam
Wainwright
16.2%+515
Jose
Abreu
CHWYes106Kyle
Freeland
15.9%+530
Jack
Suwinski
PITNo113Nick
Lodolo
15.8%+530
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes94Ross
Stripling
15.8%+535
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Drew
Rasmussen
15.8%+535
Mark
Canha
NYMYes98Drew
Smyly
15.6%+540
Rafael
Devers
BOSNo93Nestor
Cortes
15.6%+540
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo99Brayan
Bello
15.5%+545
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Charlie
Morton
15.4%+550
Elvis
Andrus
CHWYes106Kyle
Freeland
15.2%+560
Jesus
Aguilar
BALYes106Patrick
Corbin
15.2%+560
Ramon
Urias
BALYes106Patrick
Corbin
15.2%+560
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes99Zach
Davies
15.2%+560
MJ
Melendez
KCYes99Sonny
Gray
15.2%+560
Chas
McCormick
HOUYes99Joey
Wentz
15.0%+565
Corey
Seager
TEXNo101JP
Sears
15.0%+565
Franmil
Reyes
CHCYes98David
Peterson
14.9%+570
Taylor
Ward
LAANo99Cal
Quantrill
14.9%+570
William
Contreras
ATLYes90Carlos
Rodon
14.5%+590
Jorge
Mateo
BALYes106Patrick
Corbin
14.4%+590
Alex
Bregman
HOUYes99Joey
Wentz
14.4%+595
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes103Cal
Quantrill
14.3%+600
Michael
Chavis
PITYes111Nick
Lodolo
14.2%+605
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo111Roansy
Contreras
14.2%+605
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARINo93Dustin
May
14.1%+605
Chad
Pinder
OAKNo95Dane
Dunning
13.8%+625
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo95Dane
Dunning
13.8%+625
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes111Dylan
Cease
13.7%+630
Austin
Hays
BALYes106Patrick
Corbin
13.7%+630
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes99Patrick
Sandoval
13.6%+635
Trevor
Story
BOSYes99Nestor
Cortes
13.6%+635
Chris
Taylor
LADNo93Zach
Davies
13.5%+640
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Mike
Clevinger
13.5%+640
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo101JP
Sears
13.3%+655
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes99Sonny
Gray
13.2%+660
George
Springer
TORNo101Drew
Rasmussen
13.1%+660
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo106Tyler
Wells
12.9%+675
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSYes99Nestor
Cortes
12.9%+675
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLEYes99Patrick
Sandoval
12.9%+675
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo99Brayan
Bello
12.9%+675
Darin
Ruf
NYMYes98Drew
Smyly
12.8%+680
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCYes98David
Peterson
12.8%+680
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Zack
Greinke
12.8%+680
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes94Ross
Stripling
12.6%+695
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLYes90Carlos
Rodon
12.6%+695
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes95JP
Sears
12.5%+700
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Drew
Rasmussen
12.4%+705
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo87Carlos
Rodon
12.2%+720
Jo
Adell
LAANo99Cal
Quantrill
12.2%+720
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo106Tyler
Wells
12.2%+720
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes106Kyle
Freeland
12.1%+725
Jose
Miranda
MINNo98Zack
Greinke
12.1%+725
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo91Adam
Wainwright
12.0%+735
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo91Corbin
Burnes
12.0%+735
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes90Carlos
Rodon
11.9%+740
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87Charlie
Morton
11.8%+750
Gavin
Sheets
CHWNo111Kyle
Freeland
11.8%+750
Nick
Pratto
KCYes99Sonny
Gray
11.7%+750
Christian
Yelich
MILYes97Adam
Wainwright
11.5%+765
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes97Corbin
Burnes
11.5%+765
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Cristian
Javier
11.5%+770
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo106Dylan
Cease
11.4%+775
Martin
Maldonado
HOUYes99Joey
Wentz
11.4%+775
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSYes99Nestor
Cortes
11.4%+775
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo91Adam
Wainwright
11.3%+780
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWYes106Kyle
Freeland
11.3%+785
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
11.2%+790
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes94Cristian
Javier
11.2%+790
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes92Edward
Cabrera
11.0%+810
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes92Edward
Cabrera
11.0%+810
Jake
Cave
MINYes99Zack
Greinke
11.0%+810
Nick
Gordon
MINYes99Zack
Greinke
11.0%+810
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMNo95Drew
Smyly
10.9%+820
Tommy
Edman
STLYes97Corbin
Burnes
10.8%+825
Max
Stassi
LAANo99Cal
Quantrill
10.8%+830
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Mike
Clevinger
10.7%+835
Trent
Grisham
SDYes96Luis
Castillo
10.7%+835
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Zack
Greinke
10.7%+835
Elias
Diaz
COLNo106Dylan
Cease
10.7%+835
Trey
Mancini
HOUYes99Joey
Wentz
10.7%+840
Mike
Ford
LAAYes103Cal
Quantrill
10.6%+840
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo90Edward
Cabrera
10.6%+845
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes90Carlos
Rodon
10.5%+850
Mike
Toglia
COLYes111Dylan
Cease
10.5%+850
Ryan
McKenna
BALYes106Patrick
Corbin
10.5%+855
Rougned
Odor
BALNo104Patrick
Corbin
10.5%+855
Sergio
Alcantara
ARIYes99Dustin
May
10.3%+875
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes99Dustin
May
10.3%+875
Corbin
Carroll
ARIYes99Dustin
May
10.3%+875
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Drew
Rasmussen
10.2%+880
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Drew
Rasmussen
10.2%+880
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90Charlie
Morton
9.9%+910
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
9.9%+910
Wander
Franco
TBYes94Ross
Stripling
9.8%+920
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes101Dane
Dunning
9.7%+935
Matt
Olson
ATLNo87Carlos
Rodon
9.5%+955
Max
Kepler
MINYes99Zack
Greinke
9.5%+955
Drew
Waters
KCYes99Sonny
Gray
9.5%+955
Wil
Myers
SDNo99Luis
Castillo
9.3%+975
Nick
Fortes
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
9.2%+985
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes94Ross
Stripling
9.1%+1005
Riley
Greene
DETYes94Cristian
Javier
9.1%+1005
Robbie
Grossman
ATLYes90Carlos
Rodon
9.1%+1005
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes90Carlos
Rodon
9.1%+1005
Andres
Gimenez
CLENo103Patrick
Sandoval
9.0%+1005
Justin
Turner
LADNo93Zach
Davies
8.8%+1040
A.J.
Pollock
CHWYes106Kyle
Freeland
8.8%+1040
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes99Dustin
May
8.7%+1050
Manuel
Margot
TBNo101Ross
Stripling
8.7%+1050
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo91Adam
Wainwright
8.6%+1060
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Roansy
Contreras
8.6%+1065
Kolten
Wong
MILYes97Adam
Wainwright
8.6%+1070
Alec
Bohm
PHINo90Edward
Cabrera
8.5%+1070
Charles
Leblanc
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
8.5%+1070
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes96Luis
Castillo
8.5%+1080
Jeff
McNeil
NYMNo95Drew
Smyly
8.4%+1090
David
Peralta
TBYes94Ross
Stripling
8.3%+1105
Alex
Call
WSHNo106Tyler
Wells
8.2%+1115
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUYes99Joey
Wentz
8.2%+1115
Marwin
Gonzalez
NYYYes93Brayan
Bello
8.2%+1115
Tomas
Nido
NYMYes98Drew
Smyly
8.2%+1125
Carson
Kelly
ARINo93Dustin
May
8.1%+1140
Stone
Garrett
ARINo93Dustin
May
8.1%+1140
Josh
Jung
TEXYes95JP
Sears
7.9%+1160
Jose
Siri
TBNo101Ross
Stripling
7.9%+1165
Romy
Gonzalez
CHWYes106Kyle
Freeland
7.9%+1170
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
7.8%+1180
Triston
Casas
BOSNo93Nestor
Cortes
7.6%+1215
Harold
Castro
DETYes94Cristian
Javier
7.5%+1225
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo106Tyler
Wells
7.4%+1250
Austin
Hedges
CLEYes99Patrick
Sandoval
7.4%+1255
Amed
Rosario
CLEYes99Patrick
Sandoval
7.4%+1255
Nico
Hoerner
CHCYes98David
Peterson
7.3%+1265
Sam
Huff
TEXYes95JP
Sears
7.1%+1305
Bubba
Thompson
TEXYes95JP
Sears
7.1%+1305
Luis
Arraez
MINYes99Zack
Greinke
7.1%+1310
Jerar
Encarnacion
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
7.1%+1310
David
Villar
SFNo90Charlie
Morton
7.1%+1310
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes111Dylan
Cease
7.0%+1335
Alec
Burleson
STLYes97Corbin
Burnes
7.0%+1335
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Cristian
Javier
7.0%+1340
Spencer
Steer
CINNo111Roansy
Contreras
6.8%+1365