MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/14/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 8.5 (-106): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Nationals +1.5 (-130): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Nationals Moneyline (+130): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Let's start with the pitchers, neither of whom are very good.
The Nats are giving the ball to lefty Patrick Corbin. In 2022, Corbin has struggled to an 18.2% strikeout rate and is allowing 1.72 taters per nine. There is, however, a little bad luck at play as his BABIP is a sky-high .364. His 4.32 SIERA isn't that bad -- or at least nowhere near as bad as his 6.30 ERA.
Tyler Wells is going for the O's. Wells owns a 4.58 SIERA and 17.6% strikeout rate. Despite a decent 3.91 ERA, Wells has been worse than Corbin by some metrics and just as bad by nearly everything else.
Both of these bullpens have been right around the league average in xFIP over the last 30 days, too, so all in all, it's a good day to be a hitter in DC. We project 9.89 runs to be scored and think the over cashes 61.8% of the time, rating it as a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation).
As for the result, we give the underdog Nats a 53.4% chance to win. Taking Washington at +130 on the moneyline is a two-star wager while betting on the Nats to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs -- something we think they'll do 65.3% of the time -- is a three-star play.
Yankees Moneyline (-130): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 8.5 (-122): 4-Sat Rating Out of 5
The New York Yankees are -130 moneyline favorites tonight at Fenway. Our algorithm thinks they should be even bigger favorites. We also like the over.
The Yanks are starting Nestor Cortes, who is having a really nice campaign. Across 135 innings, he's sporting a 3.57 SIERA, 25.6% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate. The punchouts have dipped a bit of late, but in spite of that, he's held the opposition to three or fewer earned runs in each of his previous seven outings, including two or fewer runs in five of those starts.
Brayan Bello is going for the Boston Red Sox. A promising prospect who has posted gaudy minor-league numbers, Bello is an exciting future piece for the Sox. But for right now, he's going through an adjustment period in his initial 37 1/3 innings in the bigs, pitching to a 4.20 SIERA with an 11.7% walk rate.
In addition to having an edge in the starting-pitching department today, the Yanks also have an advantage in the bullpen. Over the past 30 days, Boston's relievers rank sixth-worst in xFIP (4.31), compared to a clip of 3.92 for the Pinstripes.
We project New York to win this game by a score of 6.14-4.63. That's 10.77 total runs, and we give the over a 68.9% chance to win out. It's a four-star bet, according to our numbers.
The Yankees' implied win odds at their -130 moneyline price are 56.5%. Our model hands the Yanks win odds of 63.9%. Taking New York to win is a two-star wager.