MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/16/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.0 (-118): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The 7.0-run total in this game is too low, according to our numbers.
Despite a 3.90 SIERA, Perez is striking out only 21.8% of hitters with a lowly 8.6% swinging-strike rate. His swinging-strike rate is 7.9% across his last seven starts, a stretch that includes four outings with a swinging-strike rate of 7.6% or lower.
Kluber has a nice-looking SIERA, too, posting a 3.80 clip. But he's permitted a 41.6% fly-ball rate and has a blah 20.5% strikeout rate. He's tailed off in the second half, as well, surrendering a .331 wOBA with just a 19.0% strikeout rate since the break.
We like the offenses to combine for 8.35 runs and give the over a 56.6% chance to hit, rating it as a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation).
Logan Webb is going for San Fran, and he's pitched to a 3.58 SIERA this year. While he lacks big-time punchout upside, Webb does a great job keeping the ball on the ground, boasting a 57.3% ground-ball rate. He's limited the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts, piecing together three scoreless outings in that stretch. He kept the Dodgers to two earned runs over six innings the last time he saw them.
Dustin May is up for LA. May has elite stuff, but he's been a little off in his return from injury this year. He's got a 12.2% walk rate and 4.42 SIERA in 21 innings. Over his past two starts, he's been tagged for nine earned runs and three jacks.
The Giants are priced at +140 on the moneyline, but our model thinks they win 58.0% of the time. Taking San Fran to win is a three-star bet.