MLB

3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Wednesday 9/21/22

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Sep 21st, 2022
Dustin May offers a lot of strikeout upside at a $8,200 salary. Which other value plays do you need to roster on Wednesday night?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.

Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.

Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?

Dustin May, P, Dodgers ($8,200)

There are a few enticing low-salary arms on this slate, including Logan Webb ($8,600) and Jordan Lyles ($7,100). But Dustin May gets the edge over those guys -- at least for me -- due to his strikeout upside.

In 26 innings this season, May has registered a 12.4% swinging-strike rate and 23.8% strikeout rate. In a similar-sized sample a year ago, he returned a 37.6% strikeout rate and 14.1% swinging-strike rate. He's had a single-game swinging-strike rate of at least 11.6% in four of his five starts this season.

Of course, May's salary is where is it for a reason. He's been capped at a high of 87 pitches in his five outings, and he's struggling with walks (11.6% rate).

I like the matchup, though. The Arizona Diamondbacks' 3.24 implied total is the slate's second-lowest, and if May puts it all together, he can have a big night.

Joc Pederson, OF, Giants ($2,700)

As was the case on Monday, Joc Pederson is our model's number-one overall hitter -- projected for a whopping 18.8 FanDuel points -- for a matchup with a righty at Coors, and he comes at an easy-to-love salary.

Pederson will see German Marquez. The Colorado Rockies' veteran has permitted a .366 wOBA to lefties while striking out just 18.3% of them. At Coors this season, Marquez has been tagged for an eye-popping 2.08 dingers per nine.

The San Francisco Giants boast a 5.01 implied total, the night's second-best mark, and Pederson has mashed with the platoon advantage, posting a .369 wOBA, 42.8% hard-hit rate and 46.5% fly-ball rate in the split.

Pederson will surely be chalk once again, but he's undeniably in a smash spot.

Chris Taylor, OF, Dodgers ($2,400)

The night's highest implied total belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who carry a 5.26-run clip into their date with Madison Bumgarner.

Bumgarner owns a 4.80 SIERA, the second-worst of his career, and he's punched out only 15.8% of hitters. Righties have mauled him to the tune of a .373 wOBA, 39.8% hard-hit rate and 41.4% fly-ball rate.

Chris Taylor is a low-salary way to get a piece of the Dodgers, and he'll hit from the right side. Taylor has put up a 47.2% fly-ball rate in the second half, and we project him to score 12.1 FanDuel points, rating Taylor as the sixth-best point-per-dollar bat.