MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 9/21/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADMadison
Bumgarner
8.55.2643.0%27.7%16.2%8.6%4.2%
BOSChase
Anderson
9.55.2442.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
ATLPaolo
Espino
8.55.1440.9%25.9%14.8%7.8%3.7%
SFGerman
Marquez
9.55.0138.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
NYYRoansy
Contreras
8.04.9537.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
BALMatt
Manning
8.54.6532.3%18.9%9.9%4.8%2.1%
TEXTucker
Davidson
8.54.5430.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
COLLogan
Webb
9.54.4929.5%16.8%8.6%4.0%1.7%
NYMAdrian
Houser
8.54.4729.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
CINConnor
Seabold
9.54.2625.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
MINDaniel
Lynch
7.54.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
SEAJames
Kaprielian
7.04.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
PHIKevin
Gausman
8.04.0422.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
MILTaijuan
Walker
8.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
LAADane
Dunning
8.53.9620.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
TORZack
Wheeler
8.03.9620.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
CHWTriston
McKenzie
7.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
SDMiles
Mikolas
7.53.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
DETJordan
Lyles
8.53.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
HOUCorey
Kluber
7.03.6316.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
STLBlake
Snell
7.53.6316.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
CLELance
Lynn
7.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
KCBailey
Ober
7.53.4413.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
TBLance
McCullers
7.03.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
MIAMarcus
Stroman
6.53.3612.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
WSHBryce
Elder
8.53.3612.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
ARIDustin
May
8.53.2411.0%4.7%1.8%0.6%0.2%
CHCJesus
Luzardo
6.53.149.9%4.1%1.5%0.5%0.2%
PITLuis
Severino
8.03.058.9%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
OAKRobbie
Ray
7.02.947.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Zack
Wheeler
TOR7.292.9%84.5%72.5%58.1%43.3%29.9%19.1%
Blake
Snell
STL6.790.1%79.8%65.9%50.5%35.7%23.3%14.0%
Lance
McCullers
TB6.488.3%76.7%61.9%46.1%31.6%19.9%11.6%
Jesus
Luzardo
CHC6.488.2%76.6%61.8%45.9%31.4%19.8%11.5%
Lance
Lynn
CLE6.488.0%76.3%61.3%45.4%31.0%19.4%11.3%
Kevin
Gausman
PHI6.487.9%76.1%61.2%45.3%30.8%19.3%11.2%
Triston
McKenzie
CHW6.387.5%75.5%60.4%44.5%30.1%18.7%10.8%
Robbie
Ray
OAK6.186.0%73.2%57.5%41.5%27.4%16.6%9.3%
Logan
Webb
COL5.680.6%65.3%48.3%32.5%19.9%11.2%5.7%
Bryce
Elder
WSH5.579.4%63.6%46.4%30.8%18.6%10.2%5.2%
Corey
Kluber
HOU5.072.9%55.2%37.7%23.2%12.9%6.6%3.0%
Dane
Dunning
LAA4.870.3%52.0%34.6%20.6%11.1%5.5%2.5%
Marcus
Stroman
MIA4.870.1%51.8%34.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Taijuan
Walker
MIL4.769.7%51.3%33.9%20.1%10.8%5.2%2.3%
Miles
Mikolas
SD4.769.5%51.1%33.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
Dustin
May
ARI4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
German
Marquez
SF4.768.4%49.8%32.5%19.0%10.0%4.8%2.1%
Jordan
Lyles
DET4.565.1%46.0%29.0%16.4%8.3%3.8%1.6%
James
Kaprielian
SEA4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Daniel
Lynch
MIN4.362.1%42.8%26.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Bailey
Ober
KC4.260.5%41.0%24.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
Madison
Bumgarner
LAD4.056.3%36.7%21.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
Luis
Severino
PIT4.055.7%36.1%20.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Adrian
Houser
NYM3.955.5%35.9%20.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Matt
Manning
BAL3.852.4%33.0%18.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Chase
Anderson
BOS3.648.7%29.5%15.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
Connor
Seabold
CIN3.647.4%28.4%14.9%6.9%2.9%1.1%0.4%
Paolo
Espino
ATL3.546.8%27.8%14.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
Tucker
Davidson
TEX3.443.7%25.2%12.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
Roansy
Contreras
NYY3.239.3%21.6%10.3%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Joc
Pederson
SFYes109German
Marquez
31.7%+215
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes113Chase
Anderson
27.4%+265
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes106Kevin
Gausman
26.8%+275
Trea
Turner
LADYes107Madison
Bumgarner
26.4%+280
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes109Luis
Severino
26.0%+285
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Roansy
Contreras
25.1%+300
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes96Blake
Snell
25.1%+300
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes109Luis
Severino
25.1%+300
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Roansy
Contreras
24.1%+315
Albert
Pujols
STLYes96Blake
Snell
23.7%+320
Stuart
Fairchild
CINNo111Connor
Seabold
23.5%+325
Mookie
Betts
LADYes107Madison
Bumgarner
23.5%+325
Nick
Maton
PHIYes106Kevin
Gausman
23.1%+330
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Paolo
Espino
22.4%+345
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes96Blake
Snell
22.3%+350
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes109German
Marquez
22.0%+355
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Taijuan
Walker
21.8%+360
Chris
Taylor
LADYes107Madison
Bumgarner
21.8%+360
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes107Madison
Bumgarner
21.8%+360
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo110Zack
Wheeler
21.8%+360
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes111Lance
Lynn
21.7%+360
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes95Tucker
Davidson
21.6%+365
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo94Corey
Kluber
21.4%+365
Jake
Fraley
CINYes113Connor
Seabold
21.4%+365
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo111Chase
Anderson
21.4%+370
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Logan
Webb
20.9%+380
Joey
Bart
SFNo108German
Marquez
20.9%+380
David
Villar
SFNo108German
Marquez
20.9%+380
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo94James
Kaprielian
20.9%+380
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Roansy
Contreras
20.8%+380
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Miles
Mikolas
20.7%+380
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Kevin
Gausman
20.6%+385
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Paolo
Espino
20.4%+390
Sean
Murphy
OAKYes94Robbie
Ray
20.4%+390
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes109German
Marquez
20.3%+395
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Triston
McKenzie
19.9%+400
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo103Adrian
Houser
19.7%+410
Corey
Seager
TEXNo101Tucker
Davidson
19.7%+410
Christian
Walker
ARINo107Dustin
May
19.6%+410
George
Springer
TORNo110Zack
Wheeler
19.5%+415
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes92Corey
Kluber
19.4%+415
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes92James
Kaprielian
19.4%+415
Joey
Meneses
WSHNo97Bryce
Elder
19.3%+415
Dermis
Garcia
OAKYes94Robbie
Ray
19.3%+420
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Paolo
Espino
19.0%+425
TJ
Friedl
CINYes113Connor
Seabold
18.9%+430
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo106Triston
McKenzie
18.9%+430
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo94Corey
Kluber
18.9%+430
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo110Zack
Wheeler
18.8%+430
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo108German
Marquez
18.6%+440
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes101Adrian
Houser
18.6%+440
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Matt
Manning
18.5%+440
Gary
Sanchez
MINYes92Daniel
Lynch
18.4%+445
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Paolo
Espino
18.4%+445
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo94Corey
Kluber
18.3%+445
William
Contreras
ATLNo97Paolo
Espino
18.2%+450
Danny
Jansen
TORNo110Zack
Wheeler
18.2%+450
Austin
Barnes
LADYes107Madison
Bumgarner
18.1%+450
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Kevin
Gausman
18.0%+455
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Triston
McKenzie
18.0%+455
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes101Dane
Dunning
18.0%+455
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Roansy
Contreras
17.9%+460
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Taijuan
Walker
17.9%+460
Jesus
Aguilar
BALNo112Matt
Manning
17.8%+460
Eric
Haase
DETNo112Jordan
Lyles
17.8%+460
Mark
Mathias
TEXYes95Tucker
Davidson
17.7%+465
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Paolo
Espino
17.7%+465
Seth
Brown
OAKNo92Robbie
Ray
17.4%+475
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes101Adrian
Houser
17.4%+475
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Taijuan
Walker
17.4%+475
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Matt
Manning
17.2%+480
Luke
Voit
WSHNo97Bryce
Elder
17.1%+485
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCYes90Jesus
Luzardo
17.0%+490
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Bailey
Ober
17.0%+490
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes102Dustin
May
16.9%+495
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes92James
Kaprielian
16.7%+500
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo103Taijuan
Walker
16.7%+500
Jose
Miranda
MINYes92Daniel
Lynch
16.7%+500
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Triston
McKenzie
16.4%+510
Zack
Collins
PITYes109Luis
Severino
16.4%+510
Brandon
Drury
SDNo96Miles
Mikolas
16.4%+510
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Connor
Seabold
16.3%+510
Paul
DeJong
STLYes96Blake
Snell
16.0%+525
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Bailey
Ober
15.8%+530
Will
Smith
LADYes107Madison
Bumgarner
15.3%+555
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Paolo
Espino
15.3%+555
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes111Lance
Lynn
15.2%+555
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo102Madison
Bumgarner
15.1%+560
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Triston
McKenzie
15.1%+565
Cal
Mitchell
PITYes109Luis
Severino
15.0%+565
Mike
Toglia
COLYes109Logan
Webb
15.0%+565
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes92Corey
Kluber
14.9%+570
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo94Corey
Kluber
14.9%+570
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Taijuan
Walker
14.7%+580
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Roansy
Contreras
14.7%+580
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo97Bryce
Elder
14.6%+585
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCYes90Jesus
Luzardo
14.5%+590
Josh
Jung
TEXYes95Tucker
Davidson
14.5%+590
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo101Tucker
Davidson
14.4%+590
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo106Lance
Lynn
14.4%+595
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes110Jordan
Lyles
14.4%+595
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Logan
Webb
14.3%+600
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo111Connor
Seabold
14.2%+605
Carlos
Correa
MINYes92Daniel
Lynch
14.2%+605
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCYes90Jesus
Luzardo
13.9%+620
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo108German
Marquez
13.9%+620
Justin
Turner
LADYes107Madison
Bumgarner
13.8%+625
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Bailey
Ober
13.7%+630
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo94Lance
McCullers
13.6%+635
Ty
France
SEANo94James
Kaprielian
13.6%+635
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes102Dustin
May
13.5%+640
Corbin
Carroll
ARIYes102Dustin
May
13.5%+640
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo111Chase
Anderson
13.5%+645
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Connor
Seabold
13.5%+645
Yu
Chang
BOSNo111Chase
Anderson
13.5%+645
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Miles
Mikolas
13.4%+650
Matt
Chapman
TORNo110Zack
Wheeler
13.4%+650
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes95Tucker
Davidson
13.2%+660
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes113Chase
Anderson
13.1%+660
Triston
Casas
BOSYes113Chase
Anderson
13.1%+660
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Matt
Manning
12.8%+680
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Matt
Manning
12.8%+680
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes109Luis
Severino
12.7%+685
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes109Luis
Severino
12.7%+685
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes101Adrian
Houser
12.7%+690
Tyler
Naquin
NYMYes101Adrian
Houser
12.7%+690
Mickey
Moniak
LAAYes101Dane
Dunning
12.7%+690
Livan
Soto
LAAYes101Dane
Dunning
12.7%+690
Alan
Trejo
COLNo108Logan
Webb
12.4%+705
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes110Jordan
Lyles
12.1%+730
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Miles
Mikolas
12.0%+730
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo112Jordan
Lyles
12.0%+735
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes109German
Marquez
12.0%+735
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Lance
McCullers
11.7%+755
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo94Corey
Kluber
11.7%+755
Elias
Diaz
COLNo108Logan
Webb
11.6%+760
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes111Lance
Lynn
11.3%+780
David
Bote
CHCYes90Jesus
Luzardo
11.2%+790
Javier
Baez
DETNo112Jordan
Lyles
11.2%+795
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo111Chase
Anderson
11.1%+800
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Kevin
Gausman
11.0%+805
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo110Zack
Wheeler
11.0%+805
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Bailey
Ober
11.0%+810
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Kevin
Gausman
10.9%+820
Stone
Garrett
ARINo107Dustin
May
10.8%+830
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106Triston
McKenzie
10.7%+835
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Triston
McKenzie
10.7%+835
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Miles
Mikolas
10.6%+840
Riley
Adams
WSHNo97Bryce
Elder
10.6%+845
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo97Paolo
Espino
10.6%+845
Jerar
Encarnacion
MIANo90Marcus
Stroman
10.6%+845
Charles
Leblanc
MIANo90Marcus
Stroman
10.6%+845
Matt
Wallner
MINNo92Daniel
Lynch
10.6%+845
Mike
Ford
LAAYes101Dane
Dunning
10.4%+860
Riley
Greene
DETYes110Jordan
Lyles
10.4%+860
Gunnar
Henderson
BALYes110Matt
Manning
10.4%+860
Oswaldo
Cabrera
NYYYes109Roansy
Contreras
10.3%+865
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes92James
Kaprielian
10.3%+870
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo94Lance
McCullers
10.3%+870
Matt
Vierling
PHINo110Kevin
Gausman
10.2%+880
Chad
Pinder
OAKYes94Robbie
Ray
10.2%+885
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Marcus
Stroman
9.9%+910
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIANo90Marcus
Stroman
9.9%+910
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Triston
McKenzie
9.9%+910
Franmil
Reyes
CHCYes90Jesus
Luzardo
9.8%+920
Christopher
Morel
CHCYes90Jesus
Luzardo
9.8%+920
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes102Dustin
May
9.7%+925
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Taijuan
Walker
9.7%+935
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes101Dane
Dunning
9.7%+935
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes111Triston
McKenzie
9.7%+935
Mark
Canha
NYMNo103Adrian
Houser
9.6%+940
David
Peralta
TBYes92Lance
McCullers
9.6%+940
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes92James
Kaprielian
9.6%+940
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Logan
Webb
9.5%+955
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Kevin
Gausman
9.4%+965
Amed
Rosario
CLENo106Lance
Lynn
9.1%+1000
P.J.
Higgins
CHCYes90Jesus
Luzardo
9.1%+1005
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes92James
Kaprielian
8.9%+1025
Jose
Siri
TBNo94Lance
McCullers
8.9%+1025
Magneuris
Sierra
LAAYes101Dane
Dunning
8.9%+1025
Tommy
Edman
STLYes96Blake
Snell
8.8%+1035
Sam
Huff
TEXYes95Tucker
Davidson
8.7%+1045
Harold
Castro
DETYes110Jordan
Lyles
8.7%+1050
Connor
Wong
BOSNo111Chase
Anderson
8.6%+1065
Bo
Bichette
TORNo110Zack
Wheeler
8.5%+1070
Gio
Urshela
MINYes92Daniel
Lynch
8.5%+1080
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108Logan
Webb
8.4%+1090
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo108Logan
Webb
8.4%+1090
Alex
Call
WSHNo97Bryce
Elder
8.4%+1095
Michael
Massey
KCYes92Bailey
Ober
8.1%+1125
Jace
Peterson
MILYes101Taijuan
Walker
8.1%+1140
Bubba
Thompson
TEXYes95Tucker
Davidson
7.9%+1160
Victor
Reyes
DETYes110Jordan
Lyles
7.8%+1180
Robinson
Chirinos
BALNo112Matt
Manning
7.8%+1185
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Matt
Manning
7.8%+1185
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo111Chase
Anderson
7.7%+1195