MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/21/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Tigers Moneyline (+136): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Tigers +1.5 (-146): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Detroit Tigers came through for us yesterday, and our model sees value on them again today.
They're taking on Jordan Lyles at Camden Yards. The Tigers' offense has been miserable this year, especially against righties, but they've picked it up a bit of late. They have a decent .311 wOBA across the past 14 days, which ranks 18th, and Lyles shouldn't overpower them as he's sporting a mere 18.2% strikeout rate.
The Tigers are sending Matt Manning to the bump. Once a prized prospect, Manning struggled mightily as a rookie. He's been better in recent starts. He's held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs in five of his previous six outings. He's still not getting many punchouts (18.6% strikeout rate for the season), but he's not being hit hard, either (31.5% hard-hit rate).
While Detroit's offense is heating up -- by the Tigers' standards -- the Baltimore Orioles' are struggling. In the past 14 days, the O's are 26th in wOBA (.274).
We have this game as close to a coin-flip. With the Tigers priced at +136 on the moneyline, we like the Detroit side. The +136 number implies win odds of 42.4%. We think Detroit wins 48.3% of the time. We also give them a 65.7% chance to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs. Both bets are two-star wagers (two-unit recommendations).
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Over 9.5 (-118): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
A 9.5-run total isn't that high for a Coors game, and our model thinks it's way too low.
Logan Webb and German Marquez are the probable starters.
In some ways, Webb has the tools to survive in the thin air. The biggest reason is his sky-high 56.6% ground-ball rate. But Webb is striking out only 20.2% of hitters, and he's permitted at least three earned runs in three of his last four Coors starts, including a six-run outing in 2021.
Marquez has struggled overall this season, and he's been really bad at home. At Coors this campaign, the Colorado Rockies' righty has allowed a .390 wOBA and 2.08 homers per nine. Big Yikes. Overall, he's surrendered a .366 wOBA to lefties, and the San Francisco Giants will likely pack their lineup with left-handed bats.
While we project both offenses to fare well, we think the Giants will shoulder the load to get us to the over, projecting this to be a 6.91-5.45 win for San Fran. That's 12.36 total runs -- nearly three runs more than the 9.5-run over/under. We project the over to cash 71.5% of the time and mark it as a four-star bet.
