MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/28/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 6.5 (-104): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
While Glasnow is starting and has some of the best stuff in the game, he's expected to be capped at roughly 45 pitches in his first start back from injury. The Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen is right around the league average in xFIP over the last 30 days (3.88), so Glasnow's short leash is a big boost for the Cleveland Guardians' offense.
McKenzie is a quality pitcher, but he struggles with the long-ball. In 2022, he's allowing a 49.0% fly-ball rate, and he's given up 1.40 homers per nine in his career. He's permitted at least two earned runs in seven of his previous eight outings.
Our model sees this as a 4.56-3.97 win for Cleveland. That's 8.53 runs -- more than two runs over the listed line. We give the over a four-star rating (four-unit recommendation) and project it to cash 69.2% of the time.
Over 8.0 (-102): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
This is another over our model loves, and it's already risen by a half-run today.
The Chicago White Sox are sending Johnny Cueto to the hill. Cueto's 3.15 ERA is mostly a smoke-and-mirrors act. His SIERA checks in at 4.57, and he's striking out just 15.2% of hitters. Regression is coming for him, and it's already started as he's allowed eight earned runs over 10 2/3 innings across his last two starts.
Josh Winder gets the nod for the Minnesota Twins. Winder posted some gaudy swinging-strike rates in the minor leagues last season, but he hasn't been able to carry it over this year. He has a mere 16.7% strikeout rate over 16 Triple-A innings in 2022, and in a 60-inning MLB sample, Winder has registered a lackluster 15.5% strikeout rate.
Both offenses are in a good spot, and we think this 8.0-run total is too low. We have the Twins winning by a score of 5.00-4.98 -- good for 9.98 total runs. We have the over hitting 62.5% of the time and rate it as another four-star bet.