MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/29/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 8.0 (-110): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
The Phillies will see Javier Assad, and they can do the heavy lifting to get us to nine-plus runs. Assad, a rookie, has been pretty bad through his initial 27 1/3 MLB frames, recording a 5.25 SIERA, 13.6% walk rate and 18.4% strikeout rate. He's permitted six earned runs over seven innings across his previous two starts.
Chicago's bats can have a good outing, too, as they take on Ranger Suarez. Suarez is much better than Assad, but he hasn't been able to maintain his numbers from his breakout 2021, pitching to a 4.08 SIERA and just a 19.7% strikeout rate.
As long as the Phillies' hitters do what we project them to do, we don't need too much from the Cubbies' sticks. We have Chicago pushing across 4.19 runs.
In all, that's 9.97 runs -- nearly two runs over the listed total. We give the over a 62.4% chance to hit and mark it as a four-star wager (or four-unit recommendation).
Marlins Moneyline (+150): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
They're sending Braxton Garrett to the bump, and Garrett has quietly been pretty darn good in 2022. Over 79 1/3 innings, he's posted a 3.42 SIERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Those are good numbers, and the southpaw should be able to generate plenty of swings and misses versus a Milwaukee active roster that owns the sixth-highest strikeout rate over the last 30 days (25.3%).
Eric Lauer is getting the ball for the Brew Crew. Lauer came out of the gates hot this campaign and looked like a possible breakout pitcher. He wasn't able to keep it going and has ended up with numbers -- including a 4.20 SIERA and 22.7% strikeout rate -- that are in line with his 2021 output.
Lauer was capped at 66 pitches last time out in a return from a brief IL stint, and he'll likely be on a shorter leash again today, leading to more of a Milwaukee 'pen that is 13th-worst in reliever xFIP over the past two weeks (3.97).
While we think the Brewers should be favored, we give Miami a slightly better chance than oddsmakers do. The Marlins' +150 moneyline price implies win odds of 40.0%. We have the Marlins winning 42.0% of the time. Taking Miami to win outright is a one-star bet, according to our algorithm.