MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 9/30/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADChad
Kuhl
8.05.2643.0%27.7%16.2%8.6%4.2%
PHIErick
Fedde
8.54.8435.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
PHIAnibal
Sanchez
8.04.5831.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
TORNick
Pivetta
8.04.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
LAAGlenn
Otto
8.04.4428.7%16.1%8.2%3.8%1.6%
SDDavis
Martin
7.54.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
SEAKen
Waldichuk
7.04.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
NYYJordan
Lyles
7.54.1724.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
STLJohan
Oviedo
7.04.0422.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
HOUDrew
Rasmussen
7.03.9520.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
MINTyler
Alexander
7.03.8318.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
CHCGraham
Ashcraft
7.03.7617.9%8.7%3.8%1.5%0.5%
CLEBrady
Singer
7.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
SFMerrill
Kelly
7.03.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
WSHBailey
Falter
8.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
TEXReid
Detmers
8.03.5615.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
BOSAlek
Manoah
8.03.4814.0%6.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%
WSHNoah
Syndergaard
8.03.4213.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
MILSandy
Alcantara
6.03.3912.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
NYMMax
Fried
6.53.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
ARIAlex
Cobb
7.03.3412.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
BALDomingo
German
7.53.3312.1%5.3%2.1%0.7%0.2%
KCAaron
Civale
7.03.2811.5%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
CINAdrian
Sampson
7.03.2411.0%4.7%1.8%0.6%0.2%
DETJoe
Ryan
7.03.1710.2%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
CHWYu
Darvish
7.53.1510.0%4.2%1.5%0.5%0.2%
ATLJacob
deGrom
6.53.139.8%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.2%
TBFramber
Valdez
7.03.058.9%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
PITJack
Flaherty
7.02.968.0%3.2%1.1%0.3%0.1%
OAKLogan
Gilbert
7.02.796.4%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.1%
COLClayton
Kershaw
8.02.746.0%2.2%0.7%0.2%0.1%
MIACorbin
Burnes
6.02.615.0%1.7%0.5%0.2%0.0%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Corbin
Burnes
MIA8.095.7%90.0%80.8%68.5%54.6%40.6%28.2%
Jacob
deGrom
ATL6.790.1%79.7%65.8%50.3%35.5%23.1%14.0%
Alek
Manoah
BOS6.789.9%79.4%65.4%49.9%35.1%22.8%13.7%
Yu
Darvish
CHW6.789.8%79.3%65.2%49.7%34.9%22.7%13.6%
Max
Fried
NYM6.588.6%77.3%62.7%46.9%32.3%20.5%12.0%
Framber
Valdez
TB6.488.0%76.4%61.5%45.6%31.1%19.6%11.3%
Clayton
Kershaw
COL6.186.0%73.2%57.5%41.5%27.4%16.6%9.3%
Sandy
Alcantara
MIL5.983.7%69.7%53.3%37.3%23.8%14.0%7.5%
Logan
Gilbert
OAK5.882.6%68.2%51.5%35.5%22.4%12.9%6.8%
Alex
Cobb
ARI5.579.6%63.9%46.8%31.1%18.8%10.4%5.3%
Joe
Ryan
DET5.478.9%63.0%45.7%30.1%18.1%9.9%5.0%
Brady
Singer
CLE5.377.3%60.9%43.5%28.1%16.5%8.9%4.4%
Merrill
Kelly
SF5.174.6%57.3%39.8%25.0%14.2%7.3%3.5%
Reid
Detmers
TEX5.073.9%56.5%38.9%24.2%13.7%7.0%3.3%
Nick
Pivetta
TOR4.769.3%50.9%33.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
Drew
Rasmussen
HOU4.566.4%47.5%30.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
Aaron
Civale
KC4.566.3%47.4%30.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
Bailey
Falter
WSH4.565.3%46.2%29.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
Graham
Ashcraft
CHC4.565.3%46.2%29.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
Jack
Flaherty
PIT4.564.9%45.8%28.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
Domingo
German
BAL4.463.4%44.1%27.3%15.1%7.6%3.4%1.4%
Johan
Oviedo
STL4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
Davis
Martin
SD4.361.4%42.0%25.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
Noah
Syndergaard
WSH4.259.9%40.4%24.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
Adrian
Sampson
CIN4.158.6%39.1%23.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
Jordan
Lyles
NYY4.157.6%38.1%22.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
Chad
Kuhl
LAD4.056.3%36.7%21.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
Glenn
Otto
LAA3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Erick
Fedde
PHI3.852.4%33.0%18.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Anibal
Sanchez
PHI3.851.6%32.2%17.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
Tyler
Alexander
MIN3.750.6%31.3%17.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
Ken
Waldichuk
SEA3.443.9%25.4%12.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes104Anibal
Sanchez
27.3%+265
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes104Erick
Fedde
27.3%+265
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Jordan
Lyles
26.0%+285
Anthony
Santander
BALYes109Domingo
German
26.0%+285
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Chad
Kuhl
25.8%+290
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo106Anibal
Sanchez
25.6%+290
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo106Erick
Fedde
25.6%+290
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
24.8%+305
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes103Reid
Detmers
24.4%+310
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes104Erick
Fedde
23.8%+320
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes104Anibal
Sanchez
23.3%+330
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Glenn
Otto
23.3%+330
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes97Jack
Flaherty
23.2%+330
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Jordan
Lyles
22.5%+345
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Jacob
deGrom
22.4%+345
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes94Alek
Manoah
22.2%+350
Luke
Voit
WSHYes106Bailey
Falter
22.2%+350
Joey
Gallo
LADYes102Chad
Kuhl
22.0%+355
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
22.0%+355
Mitch
Haniger
SEAYes99Ken
Waldichuk
21.7%+360
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
21.5%+365
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Sandy
Alcantara
20.8%+380
Will
Smith
LADNo107Chad
Kuhl
20.8%+380
Brandon
Drury
SDNo96Davis
Martin
20.7%+380
Luke
Voit
WSHNo106Noah
Syndergaard
20.7%+385
George
Springer
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
20.5%+390
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo106Erick
Fedde
20.1%+400
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Drew
Rasmussen
19.9%+400
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Chad
Kuhl
19.9%+405
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Jordan
Lyles
19.7%+410
Ty
France
SEAYes99Ken
Waldichuk
19.5%+415
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
19.4%+415
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes95Yu
Darvish
19.4%+415
Triston
Casas
BOSYes94Alek
Manoah
19.2%+420
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes97Max
Fried
19.2%+420
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Graham
Ashcraft
19.1%+425
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo103Graham
Ashcraft
19.1%+425
MJ
Melendez
KCYes103Aaron
Civale
18.8%+430
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Davis
Martin
18.6%+435
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Jordan
Lyles
18.5%+440
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Graham
Ashcraft
18.5%+440
Nick
Maton
PHIYes104Erick
Fedde
18.4%+445
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
18.2%+450
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes103Reid
Detmers
18.2%+450
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes97Jack
Flaherty
18.0%+455
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes106Bailey
Falter
18.0%+455
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Joe
Ryan
18.0%+455
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo99Logan
Gilbert
18.0%+455
Austin
Hays
BALNo103Domingo
German
17.9%+460
Stuart
Fairchild
CINNo103Adrian
Sampson
17.9%+460
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo106Anibal
Sanchez
17.7%+465
Joey
Meneses
WSHNo106Noah
Syndergaard
17.7%+465
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Glenn
Otto
17.6%+465
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Merrill
Kelly
17.6%+470
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes97Jack
Flaherty
17.4%+475
Salvador
Perez
KCNo99Aaron
Civale
17.4%+475
Justin
Turner
LADNo107Chad
Kuhl
17.2%+480
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Brady
Singer
17.0%+490
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Chad
Kuhl
16.9%+495
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Drew
Rasmussen
16.9%+495
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes97Johan
Oviedo
16.8%+495
Elehuris
Montero
COLYes107Clayton
Kershaw
16.7%+500
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Graham
Ashcraft
16.7%+500
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Jacob
deGrom
16.6%+505
Corey
Seager
TEXNo108Reid
Detmers
16.4%+510
Carlos
Correa
MINYes99Tyler
Alexander
16.4%+510
Dylan
Moore
SEAYes99Ken
Waldichuk
16.4%+510
Keston
Hiura
MILNo103Sandy
Alcantara
16.0%+525
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes107Clayton
Kershaw
16.0%+525
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Davis
Martin
15.9%+530
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Drew
Rasmussen
15.8%+535
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Chad
Kuhl
15.6%+545
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Sandy
Alcantara
15.4%+550
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIANo103Corbin
Burnes
15.4%+550
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Jacob
deGrom
15.3%+555
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Bailey
Falter
15.2%+560
Alex
Call
WSHYes106Bailey
Falter
15.2%+560
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo101Alek
Manoah
15.1%+560
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Johan
Oviedo
15.1%+565
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes109Domingo
German
15.0%+565
Gunnar
Henderson
BALYes109Domingo
German
15.0%+565
David
Villar
SFNo90Merrill
Kelly
15.0%+570
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes97Jack
Flaherty
14.9%+570
Josh
Jung
TEXYes103Reid
Detmers
14.8%+575
Nick
Fortes
MIANo103Corbin
Burnes
14.7%+580
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Davis
Martin
14.7%+580
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes95Yu
Darvish
14.7%+580
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo108Reid
Detmers
14.7%+580
Elias
Diaz
COLYes107Clayton
Kershaw
14.6%+585
Zack
Collins
PITYes97Jack
Flaherty
14.3%+600
Oswaldo
Cabrera
NYYYes109Jordan
Lyles
14.3%+600
Jake
Cave
MINNo94Tyler
Alexander
14.1%+605
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Jordan
Lyles
14.0%+610
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Glenn
Otto
14.0%+610
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo103Adrian
Sampson
14.0%+610
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo103Domingo
German
14.0%+610
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Davis
Martin
14.0%+615
Isaac
Paredes
TBYes101Framber
Valdez
13.9%+620
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARINo90Alex
Cobb
13.8%+625
Gio
Urshela
MINYes99Tyler
Alexander
13.6%+635
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
13.6%+635
Seth
Brown
OAKYes96Logan
Gilbert
13.5%+640
Conner
Capel
OAKYes96Logan
Gilbert
13.5%+640
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Sandy
Alcantara
13.3%+650
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Jordan
Lyles
13.3%+650
Jerar
Encarnacion
MIANo103Corbin
Burnes
13.3%+650
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo96Yu
Darvish
13.2%+655
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Merrill
Kelly
13.1%+660
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Drew
Rasmussen
13.1%+660
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Chad
Kuhl
13.0%+665
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo106Noah
Syndergaard
12.9%+675
Gary
Sanchez
MINYes99Tyler
Alexander
12.9%+675
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes109Domingo
German
12.7%+685
Albert
Pujols
STLNo91Johan
Oviedo
12.6%+690
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94Joe
Ryan
12.6%+695
Christian
Walker
ARINo90Alex
Cobb
12.5%+700
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo99Logan
Gilbert
12.2%+720
Alex
Call
WSHNo106Noah
Syndergaard
12.2%+720
Curt
Casali
SEAYes99Ken
Waldichuk
12.2%+720
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Brady
Singer
12.1%+725
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes103Aaron
Civale
12.1%+725
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Drew
Rasmussen
12.0%+730
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Jacob
deGrom
12.0%+735
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
11.8%+750
Jarred
Kelenic
SEANo96Ken
Waldichuk
11.6%+765
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Joe
Ryan
11.5%+770
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Brady
Singer
11.5%+770
Alec
Bohm
PHINo106Anibal
Sanchez
11.4%+775
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes99Ken
Waldichuk
11.4%+775
Jose
Miranda
MINYes99Tyler
Alexander
11.4%+775
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes97Max
Fried
11.2%+790
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo96Yu
Darvish
11.2%+795
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes101Corbin
Burnes
11.2%+795
Rougned
Odor
BALYes109Domingo
German
11.2%+795
Sam
Huff
TEXYes103Reid
Detmers
11.0%+805
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Drew
Rasmussen
11.0%+810
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo101Alek
Manoah
11.0%+810
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo101Alek
Manoah
11.0%+810
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
11.0%+810
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes101Framber
Valdez
10.8%+820
Jose
Siri
TBYes101Framber
Valdez
10.8%+820
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes96Graham
Ashcraft
10.7%+835
Alec
Bohm
PHINo106Erick
Fedde
10.7%+835
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes99Ken
Waldichuk
10.7%+840
Drew
Waters
KCYes103Aaron
Civale
10.6%+840
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo96Yu
Darvish
10.5%+855
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo96Yu
Darvish
10.5%+855
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo96Yu
Darvish
10.5%+855
Sergio
Alcantara
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
10.5%+855
Victor
Robles
WSHYes106Bailey
Falter
10.5%+855
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo103Adrian
Sampson
10.4%+860
Jo
Adell
LAANo103Glenn
Otto
10.4%+860
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo103Domingo
German
10.4%+860
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Jacob
deGrom
10.3%+865
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes96Logan
Gilbert
10.0%+900
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Graham
Ashcraft
10.0%+900
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes95Yu
Darvish
9.9%+910
Orlando
Arcia
ATLNo97Jacob
deGrom
9.9%+915
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87Merrill
Kelly
9.8%+920
Cavan
Biggio
TORYes94Nick
Pivetta
9.8%+920
Riley
Greene
DETYes94Joe
Ryan
9.8%+920
Alan
Trejo
COLYes107Clayton
Kershaw
9.7%+930
Mark
Canha
NYMYes97Max
Fried
9.7%+935
David
Peralta
TBNo102Framber
Valdez
9.6%+940
Kyle
Stowers
BALYes109Domingo
German
9.5%+955
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Glenn
Otto
9.4%+960
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo99Aaron
Civale
9.3%+975
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Davis
Martin
9.1%+995
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes87Merrill
Kelly
9.1%+995
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Merrill
Kelly
9.1%+995
Jason
Vosler
SFYes87Merrill
Kelly
9.1%+995
Corbin
Carroll
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
9.1%+995
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Jacob
deGrom
9.1%+995
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes104Noah
Syndergaard
9.1%+1000
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes104Anibal
Sanchez
9.1%+1000
Nick
Gordon
MINNo94Tyler
Alexander
8.9%+1015
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Sandy
Alcantara
8.9%+1025
Jace
Peterson
MILYes101Sandy
Alcantara
8.9%+1025
Mike
Toglia
COLYes107Clayton
Kershaw
8.8%+1030
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes100Jacob
deGrom
8.8%+1040
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes106Bailey
Falter
8.8%+1040
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Johan
Oviedo
8.6%+1060
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes97Johan
Oviedo
8.6%+1070
Charlie
Culberson
TEXYes103Reid
Detmers
8.5%+1070
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes103Reid
Detmers
8.5%+1070
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Brady
Singer
8.5%+1070
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes99Ken
Waldichuk
8.2%+1115
Jonathan
India
CINNo103Adrian
Sampson
8.0%+1145
Connor
Joe
COLYes107Clayton
Kershaw
7.9%+1160
Yadier
Molina
STLNo91Johan
Oviedo
7.9%+1165
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Drew
Rasmussen
7.9%+1165
Austin
Slater
SFNo90Merrill
Kelly
7.8%+1180
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90Merrill
Kelly
7.8%+1180
Tommy
Edman
STLYes97Johan
Oviedo
7.8%+1185
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Brady
Singer
7.7%+1190