MLB

MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/30/22

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Sep 30th, 2022

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Mookie Betts to Record an RBI (+130)

A slate-high 5.26 implied total for the Los Angeles Dodgers should put them in a spot for plenty of offense tonight.

This is about as straightforward of a spot as you can imagine for the Dodgers, and that starts with Mookie Betts. He has a great matchup against Chad Kuhl, who is having a rough go of it this year versus right-handed hitters.

This season, Kuhl is allowing a .504 SLG, .368 wOBA, 4.57 xFIP, 1.61 HR/9, 16.1% strikeout rate, and 38.4% fly-ball rate to righties. That is a tough line to be sporting when he is set to take on a very dangerous Dodgers lineup -- hence the 5.26 implied run total.

Betts comes in with a 133 wRC+, .252 ISO, .356 wOBA, 47.3% fly-ball rate, and 36.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.

This is truly an excellent matchup for Betts to grab an RBI, something he hasn't done in the last four games.

Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

For a strikeout prop, we turn to Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

On the year, Kelly has a 22.2% strikeout rate, which is rather modest, but we need to dive deeper. When we look at Kelly's stats for just the second half of the season, that strikeout rate jumps up to 25.9%.

This is shown as clear as day in his game logs as he posted a single-game strikeout rate of 25.9% or higher in six of his last 10 outings. That led to him racking up at least six strikeouts in six of those 10 starts. This is a strong level of consistency for Kelly, who now has a matchup that should enable him to continue that trend.

He will be up against the San Francisco Giants, who are carrying a 23.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 10th-worst in the league. That strikeout rate has jumped up to 27.3% versus righties in the last 30 days, which is the worst in the league in that span.

Considering all of this, adding Kelly 7+ Strikeouts (+210) is worth a little sprinkle.