FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 10/3/22
With nearly every team either eliminated or locked into a playoff slot, motivation will be an important factor as this MLB campaign nears the finish.
Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!
Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Brandon Woodruff ($10,700): Not only is Woodruff arguably the best combination of talent and matchup among tonight's pitchers, but he's also one of the only ones with something to play for. The Brewers are on the verge of being eliminated, but a win and a Phillies loss technically keeps them alive for another day.
Woodruff has certainly saved his best for last, posting FanDuel scores of 55, 61, 58, and 58 points over his last four outings. During this stretch, he's produced double-digit strikeouts in all four starts with a 1.66 xFIP, 42.0% strikeout rate, and 5.0% walk rate. At least Milwaukee has the right guy taking the mound in a must-win game.
The Diamondbacks haven't been an especially great matchup for strikeouts this season, but their active roster has a 24.1% strikeout rate since the beginning of September. Of course, with the way Woodruff has been dealing, he may not need a whole lot of help to rack up the Ks. The D-backs have a middling 3.06 implied total.
On a slate otherwise littered with question marks, Woodruff checks all the boxes tonight.
Aaron Nola ($10,800): Luckily for us, the other top pitcher on the board won't be lacking in motivation this evening, either. Philadelphia has the final wild card spot just about locked up, and they're just one game behind the Padres for the second slot.
The difference is that Nola gets a much tougher draw against the Astros. Against right-handers, Houston's active roster has a top-10 wRC+ and the third-lowest strikeout rate (19.5%).
While that places Nola firmly behind Woodruff, he has the credentials to overcome such a difficult spot. Over 31 starts, he owns a 2.84 SIERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, and 3.7% walk rate, and he's top-five in innings pitched this year.
There's also a chance that the Astros rest some of their star players as they look ahead to the playoffs. Nola is a riskier bet than Woodruff, but he's the obvious pivot in GPPs.
George Kirby ($8,400): With the Mariners already locked into an AL wild card spot, it's fair to wonder how many pitches Kirby will be allowed to throw tonight, but he might be worth the dice roll against the Tigers. As you well know by now, Detroit is the league's worst team against right-handers, and their slate-low 2.81 implied total firmly reflects that.
Kirby logged 88 pitches in his last start, and that's probably the best-case scenario. He brings in a rock-solid 3.29 SIERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, and 3.6% walk rate over 24 starts this season. Even with his limited pitch counts, he's logged quality starts in three of his last four games.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Following years of lackluster play, Urena has predictably flopped in 2022, entering the night with a 5.05 SIERA, 14.4% strikeout rate, and 10.5% walk rate. L.A. has a slate-best 5.41 implied total.
Assuming they don't sit, play the high-salaried studs up top as always, but it's pretty easy to create a Dodgers value stack through guys like Will Smith ($3,100), Max Muncy ($2,800), Justin Turner ($2,900), Trayce Thompson ($2,400), and Cody Bellinger ($2,700).
New York Mets
The New York Mets have all but squandered their shot at winning the NL East after getting swept by the Braves over the weekend, but they should still be going all-out to win tonight against the Nationals.
It's a great spot for them to bounce back versus struggling right-hander Cory Abbott, too. Abbott has posted a 5.04 SIERA, 20.1% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate, and 62.0% fly-ball rate this year. He's giving up home runs to both sides of the plate, so everyone in this Mets lineup can get in on the fun.
Pete Alonso ($4,200) and Francisco Lindor ($3,700) top the wish list, and then we can get some value power from the likes of Eduardo Escobar ($2,400), Dan Vogelbach ($2,500), and Tyler Naquin ($2,300).
It's worth noting that the weather could be an issue, though. Not only is there some rain in the forecast, but temperatures will be below 60 degrees, and we could see 13 mph winds blowing in tonight.
As noted at the beginning, the Brewers should be one of the slate's most motivated teams, and they're up against a weak lefty in Tommy Henry. Henry has struggled across eight starts, putting up a 5.08 SIERA, 16.9% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate, and 40.5% fly-ball rate.
The only problem? Despite being able to fill their lineup with righty sticks, Milwaukee is a below-average offense against southpaws, and that includes an ugly 26.0% strikeout rate in the split.
Still, the Brewers need this win, and once they get past Henry, they'll be able to attack an Arizona bullpen that has the worst xFIP among active rosters.