FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 10/8/22
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Jacob deGrom ($11,300)
At his lowest salary point since August 13th, deGrom will face a San Diego Padres' lineup with a 21.5% K-rate, a .307 weighted on-base average (wOBA), and a 76.3% contact rate in their last 602 plate appearances versus right-handers.
Through 64.1 innings this season, the 34-year old ranks first among Saturday's eight pitchers in several key metrics including K-rate (43%), swinging strike percentage (21%), and a 1.54 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP) while his recent form almost matches his yearly production including a 1.51 xFIP, a 20% swinging strike rate, and double-digit strikeouts in 60% of his last five starts.
In a must-win situation at home against four Padres' hitters with K-rates ranging from 15.1% to 26.3% and weighted on-base averages lower than .302, deGrom ranks first in strikeouts with a 7.21 mark and second overall with a 36.3 FanDuel point projection.
Kevin Gausman ($10,800)
Despite recording 15 FanDuel points in three innings in his last start due to a right middle finger cut, Gausman's FanDuel salary has increased to his highest mark this season against a Seattle Mariners' unit with a .332 wOBA, 24.0% K-rate, and a 71.5% contact rate in this split.
In 174.2 innings, Toronto's right-hander recorded arguably his best overall season with a 2.76 xFIP, a 28.3% K-rate, and a 15.5% swinging strike percentage while his recent from since September reciprocates similar numbers with a 15.4% swinging strike rate, a 2.71 xFIP, and a 28.7% K-percentage.
With today's top projection including 36.9 FanDuel points and 7.12 strikeouts in 5.6 innings, the 31-year old's chance for success will likely depend on how he challenges five Seattle batters with K-rates between 24.2% and 31.4% and contact percentages from 67.4% to 72.5%.
Aaron Nola ($10,400)
After a 3.7% salary decrease to his second lowest point since September, Nola is tied for first among today's starters with a 36.9 FanDuel point projection and 3.55 value rating against a St. Louis Cardinals' team with a .310 wOBA, a 17.0% strikeout rate, and a 77.0% contact percentage.
While the 29-year old did struggle in his only appearance versus St. Lous (five earned runs and seven strikeouts in seven innings), Nola has displayed impressive consistency in his last six starts, producing a 2.23 xFIP, a 15.6% swinging strike rate, and eight or more strikeouts in 83% of these appearances.
With a seasonal 2.38 xFIP and a 30.2% K-rate against right-handed hitters, Nola has a promising opportunity to reach his 6.55 strikeout expectation against four Cardinals' batters with K-rates between 13.4% and 21.4% and contact percentages under 80.9%.
In a potential revenge spot against Seattle's Robbie Ray, Toronto's dominant right-handed lineup ranks first on Saturday with a 4.1 run total versus their former teammate.
Among today's elite group of pitchers, Ray ranks mostly in the middle of the lower pack in several key metrics including sixth in strikeout percentage (27%) and skill interactive earned run average (3.50) while also allowing the third most walks (8%) and a drastic amount of production to the opposing side of the plate (.323 wOBA , a 3.73 xFIP, 16.6% home-run to fly-ball ratio against right-handed hitters).
Considering his main weaknesses, ideal Toronto stacks should include their most patient right-handed power bats including Alejandro Kirk (.351 expected wOBA, .431 expected slugging), Matt Chapman (.341 expected wOBA, 12.9% barrel rate), Danny Jansen (.368 expected wOBA, 13.1% barrel rate), George Springer (.342 expected wOBA, 8.4% barrel rate), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (11.2% barrel rate, .348 expected wOBA) while Bo Bichette (.278 expected average, 9.6% barrel rate) and Teoscar Hernandez (.501 expected slugging, 15.0% barrel rate) also rank well enough to be mixed in.
As Saturday's third overall offense with a 3.4 run total, the Phillies have an underrated spot against Cardinals' right-hander Miles Mikolas.
While Mikolas usually relies on his ability to keep the ball on the ground (45.0%), the 34-year old does not miss many bats, ranking last among the slate in K-rate (19%), skilled interactive earned run average (3.99), and swinging strike percentage (8%).
To best counter his main strength, Philadelphia combinations should include their best fly-ball hitters from either side of the plate including Kyle Schwarber (46.9% fly-ball rate, 20.1% barrel rate), Rhys Hoskins (42.8% fly-ball percentage, 11.1% barrel rate), Bryce Harper (37.2% fly-ball rate, 12.8% barrel percentage), Bryson Stott (35.6% fly-ball percentage, 36.8% hard hit rate ) and J.T. Realmuto (34.0% fly-ball rate, .463 expected slugging).