MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Wild Card Playoff Helper: Padres at Mets, Game 3

Matthew Lo Oct 9th, 2022
New York's Eduardo Escobar is an intriguing candidate in Sunday's Wild Card Game 3 matchup against the Padres. Which other players profile as top candidates for tonight's single-game slate?

For those unfamiliar with the single-game daily fantasy baseball format, scoring is identical to its full roster cousin, except you only roster hitters, and lineups consist of five flex spots. The one twist?

One of the five roster spots is your designated "MVP," who receives 2-times his total fantasy points, along with a "STAR" slot that gets 1.5-times the points. Naturally, it's crucial that you choose your MVP and STAR carefully if you want to be at the top of the leaderboards when it's all said and done.

On that note, let's highlight some of the top options for today's FanDuel single-game slate.

Pitching Breakdown

After recording ten runs and five home runs in their previous two Wild Card contests, the Padres will take on New York's right-hander Chris Bassitt with a 3.1 projected run total.

In his largest sample size as a starting pitcher, Bassitt produced his best overall season through 181.2 innings, recording a 3.72 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), a 21.7% K-rate, and a 10.0% swinging strike percentage while also accounting for a recent 4.20 xFIP in six starts since September.

When considering his mixed results against the Padres (9 earned runs allowed in 10.1 innings, 17 strikeouts) and Bassitt's tendency to give up production against the opposing side of the plate this season (.325 weighted on-base average (wOBA), 3.97 xFIP, 8.9% walk rate). left-handed patient bats are the ideal way to attack the veteran for Sunday night's single-game slate.

While the Padres were limited to three runs on Saturday night, the New York Mets will attempt to prolong their recent offensive success with a 3.5 run total against San Diego's Joe Musgrove.

Through 181.0 innings this season, the 29-year old also completed his best full season in his second largest sample size as a starter, recording a stellar 3.47 xFIP, a 24.9% K-rate, and a 11.0% swinging strike percentage while his expected metrics from September suggest similar production with a 3.91 xFIP and a 25.7% K-rate in six starts.

When analyzing Musgrove's tendency to keep the ball on the ground (44.6%) and overall neutral splits (3.87 xFIP against right-handed bats, 3.80 xFIP to left-handed hitters), the most ideal strategy to counter the 29-year old right-hander's pitching profile would be to choose power fly-ball hitters from New York's lineup.

Players Breakdown

At The Top

Manny Machado ($9,500): Despite batting from the right side, San Diego's third baseman offers plenty of upside with a 9.8% barrel rate, a .264 expected average, and a .447 expected slugging percentage this season while his recent form in 118 at-bats since September includes a .237 expected average, nine home runs, and a 48% hard hit rate.

Pete Alonso ($9,000): New York's best power hitter profiles well in this particular matchup with a 12.3% barrel rate, a .354 expected wOBA, a .489 expected slugging percentage, and a 41.0% fly-ball rate.

Francisco Lindor ($8,500): Ranking third in expected slugging (.427) and fifth in expected weighted on-base average (.331), Lindor also tends to lift the ball in the air with power with a 8.3% barrel rate and a 38.9% fly-ball percentage.

Juan Soto ($8,000): As San Diego's most complete hitter batting from the left side, Soto counters Bassitt's profile perfectly with a .401 expected wOBA, a 20.3% walk rate, and a 12.4% barrel percentage.

In the Middle

Josh Bell ($7,500): Despite his recent struggles since September (.224 expected average, 36% hard hit rate), Bell still ranks third among his team in slugging (.424 expected percentage) and second in expected weighted on-base average (.349).

Eduardo Escobar: ($6,500): When analyzing his team-high 46.4% fly-ball percentage, his recent red-hot form since last month including a .292 expected average and nine home runs, and overall batted ball form (9.4% barrel rate, .427 expected slugging) Escobar is an intriguing MVP or STAR candidate in Game 3's crucial showdown.

Jeff McNeil ($6,000): 2022's National League batting champ has been in sizzling recent form in his past 123 at-bats, accounting for 43 hits and a .318 expected average.

Jurickson Profar ($6,000): San Diego's expected leadoff batter offers undervalued production at the top of the lineup in his most recent 117 at-bats, recording a .261 expected average and 11 extra-base hits while his yearly expected wOBA (.315) ranks fifth among his team.

At the Bottom

Trent Grisham ($5,500): San Diego's 25-year old center fielder has an underrated ability to hit the ball hard with a 8.1% barrel rate while also gaining some momentum in October with a .265 expected average and three extra base hits in 18 at-bats.

Dan Vogelbach ($5,000): With a 39.0% fly-ball percentage, a 10.6% barrel rate, and a .350 expected weighted on-base average, New York's slugging designated hitter profiles as a great value option with power.