MLB NLCS Betting Guide: Padres at Phillies, Game 3
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Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Over 7.5 Runs (-105)
Bryce Harper to Record 2+ Total Bases (+130)
Juan Soto to Record 2+ Total Bases (+135)
Joe Musgrove and Ranger Suarez get the nods tonight in Game 3, and that has me on the over.
Suarez struggled for a lot of 2022, posting a 4.11 SIERA and 19.5% strikeout rate. Home-road splits need to be taken with a grain of salt, but Suarez was much worse at home, allowing a .331 wOBA with a 17.8% strikeout rate in Philly, compared to a .300 wOBA and 20.8% strikeout rate in his travels. He'll face some tough righties today as the San Diego Padres will have Manny Machado, Brandon Drury, Wil Myers and Ha-Seong Kim in four of the first six spots of their lineup if they use the same lineup they deployed the last time they took on a southpaw.
Musgrove is a good pitcher, but after an electric first half of the campaign, he tailed off in the second half. He permitted a .329 wOBA and 1.52 jacks per nine in the second half -- numbers that are a big drop from his first-half clips of a .263 wOBA and 0.78 homers per nine. With this one at Citizens Bank Park, we could see the Philadelphia Phillies pop a couple dingers.
Speaking of that, I'm taking Bryce Harper to record 2+ total bases (+130). Harper is red-hot, totaling a .576 wOBA and 60.0% fly-ball rate this postseason. I don't hate Harper to homer (+360).
I also like Juan Soto to rack up 2+ total bases (+135). The +135 price is a nice clip for one of the game's best bats, and it's likely as high as it is due to the lefty-lefty matchup with Suarez. While Suarez is tough on left-handed hitters, there's no guarantee he sticks around all that long in this game -- he lasted 3 1/3 frames in his lone start this postseason -- and Soto more than held his own in this split in 2022, putting up a .360 wOBA.
Both of those props correlate well with the over (-105). Our model projects this game to go over the 7.5-run total 55.5% of the time.