FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 4/4/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options each and every day. Let's dig in.
Top of the Heap
Shane Bieber ($11,000), Guardians: Just on reputation and spot, Bieber is the top-salaried pitcher on this slate for good reason. He's just not the slam dunk he'll likely be rostered as tonight.
Bieber's velocity is still significantly down at the start of 2023, and there was trouble that never materialized in his six scoreless innings on Opening Day. He still left that start with a 4.49 SIERA, primarily due to a 40.0% flyball rate and 50.0% hard-hit rate.
The obvious caveat here is that he's drawing the Athletics in Oakland. Their 95 wRC+ versus righties to start the year is higher than we'd have expected, but this is still one of the worst lineups in baseball for good reason. When 95 is the ceiling, that's not ideal.
Biebs comes with some semblance of safety from his matchup, but at his salary in tournaments, I can't see a world where someone doesn't put forth a better outing.
Julio Urias ($10,500), Dodgers: A candidate to best Bieber might be Julio Urias of the Dodgers, who is just one tiny note from an ideal candidate tonight.
The Rockies were much better against southpaws last year (100 wRC+) than they were against righties (79 wRC+). Other than that, Colorado has just a 2.75 implied team total for good reason.
They've got just a 67 wRC+ versus lefties in a tiny sample so far, and it's come with a gigantic 35.9% strikeout rate. There is a substantial crosswind at Dodger Stadium today that should help pitchers, too.
Urias tossed six innings and surrendered two runs on Opening Day, and the new Dodgers ace is in a phenomenal spot to keep his quality start streak going tonight.
Framber Valdez ($9,800), Astros: Cash-game pitchers are worth their weight in gold, and Valdez is an ideal fit for that role.
His 23.5% strikeout rate last year is a bit lower than you'd hope for in a tournament ace, and he only fanned three batters across five innings on Opening Day. Still, Valdez's 2.01 SIERA against the White Sox last week is indicative of how he controlled a much tougher lineup than he draws today.
The Tigers' offense is pitiful. They've got just a 9 wRC+ against lefties so far, and they struck out 12 times against Jeffrey Springs on Sunday. They could provide Valdez's upside.
Valdez wasn't super efficient in his debut, but tossing 85 pitches in that one, he's the best candidate for a quality start on this slate when factoring in his opponent.
Tournament Options
Max Scherzer ($10,800), Mets: The aforementioned three pitchers face bottom-10 offenses in baseball, so with a matchup a little tougher, Scherzer could go overlooked in tournaments.
That could be dangerous. Mad Max had a slate-best 27.3% strikeout rate and 14.3% swinging-strike rate last year, and it's not like the Brewers aren't willing to comply. They've got a 24.1% strikeout rate against righties so far, which is the 11th-worst mark in baseball.
There are more quality bats in the Milwaukee lineup than the prior three pitchers will face, which is why Scherzer's opposing team total (3.56) is quite a bit higher than the others. American Family Field is also one of the better hitter's parks in the sport.
There's some risk, but Scherzer has the strikeout upside the others might be a touch lacking. It's worth noting his velocity wasn't ideal either, too.
Luis Castillo ($10,100), Mariners: After the Angels crushed George Kirby last night, there appears to be good reason to be wary of their improved lineup.
Beyond the superstars at the top, L.A. added Gio Urshela, Jake Lamb, and Brandon Drury to the bottom of the order, and it's paying dividends. The Halos have a 103 wRC+ versus righties so far with a below-average strikeout rate (21.3%).
That's the one downside to Castillo, who otherwise had the best debut of any pitcher on the slate. He piled up six whiffs in six scoreless innings, amassing a tiny 1.27 FIP. The 31.6% strikeout rate from that outing versus Cleveland also leads the slate.
I'd grade Castillo's matchup as the toughest of these five, but it wouldn't be shocking at all to see him flourish despite that.
Quick Mound Visits
Andrew Heaney ($8,800), Rangers: The Orioles' right-handed dominant lineup has crushed lefties for a 230 wRC+ so far. In addition to Heaney's 1.73 HR/9 last year, I'm totally out.
Nick Pivetta ($8,500), Red Sox: Fenway Park has averaged 15.8 total runs per game this year, yet this total sits at a lower mark than yesterday (9.0). One of these offenses might fall flat, and the Pirates are the better candidate. They've got just an 81 wRC+ versus righties so far.
Roansy Contreras ($8,400), Pirates: His 12.6% swinging-strike rate last year crushes anyone else in this value tier, but his 45.9% hard-hit rate allowed is also incredibly high considering the hitter's paradise at Fenway. I won't get here.
Jose Suarez ($8,000), Angels: Buying into small early-season samples always has the potential to reap rewards. Seattle's 34 wRC+ and .103 ISO against lefties thus far is terrible. Suarez's 3.91 SIERA last year wasn't bad. Can he take advantage of a possible early trend?
German Marquez ($7,800), Rockies: Given I love the under here, Marquez is my favorite value pitcher of the day. He's held just a 2.33 ERA at Dodger Stadium since the start of 2018. A quality start on Opening Day wasn't a bad omen the 2021 All-Star could regain his form in 2023.
