FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 4/10/23

Monday gets the week started with some notable names taking the mound, and some pitchers are already entering their third starts. On the hitting side, we have ourselves another Coors Field slate, but we actually have several spots to turn to if we want to avoid the chalk.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

We have three pitchers with salaries coming in above $10,000: Julio Urias ($10,900), Luis Castillo ($10,500), and Max Scherzer ($10,100).

Under normal circumstances, Scherzer would be the obvious top choice here, but his 2023 campaign has gotten off to a rocky start. After two outings, the veteran right-hander is looking at a 5.50 SIERA, 17.0% strikeout rate, and 8.5% walk rate, and he's already given up four home runs. The Padres' active roster has a 113 wRC+ and 21.0% strikeout rate versus righties dating back to last year, so this isn't the ideal bounce-back spot, either

Still, it's too early to completely bail on Scherzer after just two starts, and he's still produced a promising 13.4% swinging-strike rate. The iffy results and matchup arguably bump him down to third in this group, but he's still worth considering in tournaments.

On the other hand, both Urias and Castillo are off to fast starts this season, and the latter gets the slight nod for me tonight.

Castillo has logged 11 2/3 scoreless innings over his two appearances, and that's largely backed by a 3.13 SIERA, 30.0% strikeout rate, 5.0% walk rate, and 16.0% swinging-strike rate. Add in a matchup against a Cubs active roster with a 97 wRC+ and 23.0% strikeout rate versus righties since the start of 2022, and a workload that's already flirting with triple-digit pitches, and there's a lot to like about Castillo on Monday.

While Urias is often less desirable in DFS due to the lack of an elite punchout rate, he's churned out a 27.9% strikeout rate to begin the year, and he's yet to dole out a single walk. That being said, his 10.2% swinging-strike rate is actually down from his career average. The southpaw will likely throw fewer pitches than either Castillo or Scherzer, too, after logging 87 in his last start.

The good news is he's facing a Giants active roster with a 25.5% strikeout rate against lefties going back to last season, and Urias has also implemented a new cutter, which could help him keep that strikeout rate up. He still probably isn't a guy we should expect to rack up double-digit punchouts very often, but he's scored 40 and 46 FanDuel points in his first two starts, and a similar score should be expected again tonight.

If we're hunting for value, Zac Gallen ($8,900) is a name that sticks out. The results haven't been there for Gallen thus far, but unlike Scherzer, we're at least getting a discount here. While Gallen's 20.4% strikeout rate has been underwhelming, both his 10.8% swinging-strike rate and 29.5% called-plus-swinging strike rate are actually above his marks from last season, when Gallen produced a 26.9% strikeout rate. He's taking on a Brewers team that's off to a hot start, but Milwaukee's 3.98 implied team total suggests that Gallen is more or less getting the benefit of the doubt despite his struggles.

Outside of an ugly 13.6% walk rate, Bryce Elder ($8,300) was mostly good in his first 2023 start, which included a 27.3% strikeout rate and 50.0% ground-ball rate. Elder wasn't a big strikeout guy in his 54 MLB innings last year, but the Reds' active roster has the league's second-worst strikeout rate against right-handers (25.0%) from 2022 onward. Cincinnati also has the fifth-lowest implied team total of the slate (3.88).

I'm not sure I can talk myself into Andrew Heaney ($7,800) after he got shelled in his Rangers debut, but he was excellent for the Dodgers when healthy last season, posting a 2.46 SIERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate. We didn't get anything close to that version of Heaney last week, and outside of 2022, Heaney has been largely ineffective throughout his career. But with some inviting stacks on this slate, you could do worse than sprinkling Heaney into a few tourney lineups against a below-average Royals offense.

Hitting Breakdown

The St. Louis Cardinals are getting the Coors Field bump on Monday, and the result is a head-turning 6.16 implied team total.

They'll see right-hander German Marquez on the mound, and given that Marquez is showing a 20.0% strikeout rate through two 2023 starts and put up a 19.3% strikeout rate last season, high roster percentages might be the only thing that could scare us off from the Cardinals. St. Louis is a loaded lineup that we can easily stack from top to bottom in this type of spot.

The Colorado Rockies ought to be the less popular of the two Coors combatants, and their matchup is a bit tougher against lefty Steven Matz. But Matz has struggled to keep the ball in the park when facing right-handed batters throughout his career, and 2022 was no different as he allowed 1.66 home runs per 9 innings in the split. C.J. Cron ($4,200), Kris Bryant ($3,600), and Elehuris Montero ($3,000) are the Rockies' best righty power options.

We also have a non-Coors team that could be pretty chalky, and that's the Los Angeles Angels. That's because they have the slate's second-highest implied team total (5.69) against stacking mainstay Patrick Corbin.

Corbin hasn't done anything to sway public opinion in 2023, as he's produced a 5.10 SIERA and 13.0% strikeout rate through two starts (nine innings) and has already allowed two home runs. The southpaw gave up 1.79 dingers per 9 innings to righties last season and had a below-average strikeout rate versus both sides of the plate.

Mike Trout ($4,600) could be one of the night's most popular plays, and Shohei Ohtani ($3,900) might not be far behind despite the lefty-lefty matchup.

Further helping Angels stacks will be that other than those two and Taylor Ward ($3,700), it's all value in this lineup. That includes the likes of Anthony Rendon ($2,800), Hunter Renfroe ($2,800), Brandon Drury ($2,600), and Luis Rengifo ($2,500) -- all of whom come with enough power to punish Corbin.

Zack Greinke continues to find ways to overcome his lackluster underlying metrics in his late 30s, but this still looks like a matchup that strongly favors the Texas Rangers.

In 2022, Greinke recorded a 15.1% strikeout rate versus righties, and he was even worse against lefties with a mere 8.7% strikeout rate. Despite this, the veteran right-hander managed to limit the damage more than one would expect -- he had a 3.68 ERA last season -- but this is an awful lot of contact to give up, and it will definitely leave Greinke open to some poor nights. He's opened 2023 with a 16.7% strikeout rate, so we should expect more of the same.

Texas isn't a stack that will break the bank, either, and we can get some nice power from the top half of the order in Marcus Semien ($3,300), Corey Seager ($3,000), Nathaniel Lowe ($3,200), Adolis Garcia ($3,500), and Josh Jung ($2,900).

The Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners are two others to have on your radar.

The Braves will take on Graham Ashcraft, who made some buzz in spring training and performed well in his first 2023 outing. It's entirely possible Ashcraft takes a step forward this season, but Atlanta is a ruthless matchup, and bookmakers are siding with the bats (5.12 implied team total). The young right-hander posted a 4.63 xFIP and 13.9% strikeout rate in same-sided matchups last season, which doesn't bode well against the likes of Ronald Acuna ($4,400), Austin Riley ($3,700), and friends.

As for the Mariners, they'll have the opportunity to attack Drew Smyly, who got knocked around by the Reds in his opening start. The left-hander allowed 1.56 home runs per 9 innings to righties last season, and that's in line with what we've seen over his career. Given that Seattle could have a lineup of almost entirely right-handed batters, they might not be getting enough credit tonight (4.46 implied team total) and will hopefully fly under the radar a little.