FanDuel Pitching Primer: Monday 4/10/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top of the Heap
Luis Castillo, Mariners ($10,500)
Castillo is my SP1 on this slate in a road date with the Chicago Cubs.
He's been good through two starts, scoring 41 and 40 FanDuel points thanks to 12 punchouts across 11 2/3 scoreless frames. Castillo has amassed a 30.0% strikeout rate and 16.0% swinging-strike rate, so the peripherals are as legit as the results have been.
He got up to 99 pitches last time out, so he should be close to a full workload in an advantageous matchup versus the Cubs, an offense that's been respectable so far but has a meh 3.90 implied total today.
Castillo went up against the Cubbies twice last year before beating dealt to the Seattle Mariners. He piled up 17 strikeouts over 11 frames in those two outings, limiting the Cubs to a pair of earned runs. His strikeout prop is at 6.5 tonight with a -116 price on the over.
All in all, Castillo -- who we project for 34.3 FanDuel points -- checks a lot of boxes. When trying to pick the slate's top arm, you can certainly make an argument for this next guy, but Castillo's matchup gives him a slight edge in my eyes.
Max Scherzer, Mets ($10,100)
Scherzer is in a difficult spot tonight versus the San Diego Padres, and he hasn't quite been his usual self, giving up a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 54.3% fly-ball rate through two starts.
However, oddsmakers aren't too concerned as the Padres have a meager 3.50 implied total, the slate's second-lowest mark.
Although the bottom-line results and batted-ball numbers aren't very good, Scherzer mostly checks out once you pop the hood. He's got a 13.4% swinging-strike rate, which is right near last year's 14.8% mark and tells us that his lowly 17.0% strikeout rate is bound to rise. He also owns a 21.1% homer-per-fly-ball rate that's bound to fall. His homer-to-fly-ball rate was 7.5% last year and is at 10.4% for his career.
The strikeout upside is as good as anyone's on this slate. Scherzer's strikeout prop is at 6.5 with -147 juice on the over.
Our model projects Max for 6.57 punchouts and 35.4 FanDuel points. Those are both slate-best numbers, but I ever so slightly side with Castillo, especially with early draft percentage projections around the industry pegging the two to be (roughly) equally popular.
Tournament Option
Julio Urias, Dodgers ($10,900)
With Scherzer and Castillo lower in salary, Urias profiles as someone who may go overlooked, and early draft percentage projections back that up. That makes him a sweet GPP play.
Urias is on the road to do battle with the San Francisco Giants. San Fran's bats have been really productive so far, with the Giants sitting fifth in wOBA (.351), but they still have the night's lowest implied total (3.44).
The Los Angeles Dodgers' southpaw was someone I liked preseason as an NL Cy Young bet, and Urias has been really good so far, pitching to a 2.70 SIERA and 27.0% strikeout rate. He threw 88 pitches in his most recent start after going 79 pitches in his debut, so he's likely capable of tossing 90-some pitches today. His strikeout prop is at 5.5 but with -158 juice on the over.
Admittedly, our model isn't that high on Urias, projecting him for only 28.8 FanDuel points. I like him a little more than that, particularly if his projected draft percentage holds near 5%.
Low-Salary Play
Andrew Heaney, Rangers ($7,500)
I'm a sucker for Heaney, and I'm ready to be hurt again.
One of the more frustrating pitchers to roster, Heaney flashes elite upside when he's on but disappoints us far too often. It was the latter in his first start as he was blitzed for seven earned runs and two jacks in 2 2/3 frames by the Baltimore Orioles.
Heaney gets a much nicer landing spot in his second turn as he hosts the Kansas City Royals. KC is currently next to last in wOBA (.258) with the sixth-highest strikeout rate (25.7%). Yes, please.
It's hard to ever have much confidence in Heaney, but this is a matchup where he could go nuts. He ended 2022 with a 35.5% strikeout rate and 16.8% swinging-strike rate in 72 2/3 innings, so talent isn't the issue. His strikeout prop is up at 6.5 today (-119 on the over). Plus, he's $7,500 on a slate with several great hitting spots, including Coors.
We have Heaney scoring 31.7 FanDuel points, which ranks third (behind Scherzer and Castillo). Given the salary discount, his talent and the mouth-watering matchup, Heaney is someone I'll be overweight on tonight, and I'll live with the results.
Quick Mound Visits:
Zac Gallen ($8,900): Nearly wrote him up as the tourney pick. Not overly concerned about the slow start. Brewers pack a punch (.356 wOBA) but swing and miss plenty (23.5% strikeout rate).
Bryce Elder ($8,300): Viable value play in a solid home matchup with the Reds (3.69 implied total). But strikeout prop is only 5.5 with plus-money on the over. Much prefer Heaney at a lower salary.
Yu Darvish ($9,300): Rough matchup against the Mets. Struggled in his lone 2023 start. Don't hate him as a bet-on-talent dart throw if you're trying to be super different.
Logan Webb ($9,600): Similar to Darvish. Bad matchup (Dodgers), and the strikeout prop is at only 4.5 (-133 on the over). Will barely be in any lineups, though, if you're wanting to go off the grid.
