FanDuel Pitching Primer: Monday 4/17/23

Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.

While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.

Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.

All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top of the Heap

Jacob deGrom, Rangers ($10,600)

deGrom gets the nod from me as the slate's SP1.

He's been his usual dominant self this year, racking up a 40.9% strikeout rate and 19.4% swinging-strike rate en route to a 1.93 SIERA. He got up to 98 pitches last time out, so he's close to fully stretched out.

Tonight, deGrom will take on the Kansas City Royals in a rematch of his previous start. In that one, deGrom struck out nine in seven innings of two-run ball. He finished with 46 FanDuel points.

He should be able to produce something similar tonight in KC. The Royals' own a slate-low 3.15 implied total, and they're next to last in wOBA (.273) while holding the third-highest strikeout rate (26.3%). They're about as good of a matchup as we can ask for.

Corbin Burnes, Brewers ($10,000)

If you prefer Burnes to deGrom, I won't push back too hard. That's how our projections have it, after all. While I side with deGrom, Burnes is also an excellent play.

After a slow start to the season, Burnes rebounded last time out, fanning eight across eight shutout innings. He had a single-game swinging-strike rate of 18.0% in that one -- up significantly from his marks of 4.3% and 8.0% over his first two starts.

Burnes is on the road tonight at the Seattle Mariners. Seattle isn't as soft of a matchup as KC is, but they're just 22nd in wOBA (.307) with the 12th-highest strikeout rate (24.1%). The Mariners' 3.47 implied total is the slate's second-lowest.

Our model projects Burnes for 35.2 FanDuel points, 0.5 more than deGrom.

Tournament Option

Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays ($11,100)

I think you can make a GPP case for either pitcher in the Toronto Blue Jays-Houston Astros clash. I'm more into Gausman than Cristian Javier.

Obviously, the Houston Astros are a tough matchup, but so far this year, Houston hasn't been as bad of a matchup as they've been in previous seasons. They're 17th in wOBA (.319) and 22nd in strikeout rate (21.2%). The Astros' implied total is an attackable 3.90.

Gausman was really dang good last year (2.94 SIERA), and he's off to a stellar start in 2023, recording a 2.74 SIERA and 31.6% strikeout rate. He is a fun pivot off deGrom and Burnes.

Low-Salary Play

Hayden Wesneski, Cubs ($7,200)

Wesneski checks some boxes and is worth a look as a value play.

The matchup is there as he gets a road game against the Oakland Athletics. Oakland is 26th in wOBA (.305) and holds the night's third-lowest implied total (3.78).

Wesneski has stunk this year, but a season ago, he posted a 3.32 SIERA and 25.0% strikeout rate across a small sample of 33 MLB innings. He's got a pretty solid minor-league track record, too.

While deGrom and Burnes are the priorities for me tonight, Wesneski's salary is a big help on a Coors slate, and the matchup gives him a path to a good outing.

Quick Mound Visits:
Cristian Javier ($9,900): His 13.4% swinging-strike rate tells us his 19.7% strikeout rate should significantly improve. Might not happen today, though, in a tough matchup against a Jays team that has pop and isn't striking out much (19.7% strikeout rate).
Dustin May ($9,500): Not getting swings and misses so far and has a difficult date with the Mets. Burnes can be had for just $500 more in salary.
Jack Flaherty ($8,300): Has walked 21.5% of hitters so far. If you're searching for a salary-saver, Wesneski is a safer bet and is $1,100 lower in salary.
David Peterson ($7,800): Peterson's 11.9% walk rate could be a huge issue versus a Dodgers offense that has the second-highest walk rate (13.0%).