FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 4/19/23
With the majority of games scheduled during the day, we have an early Wednesday main slate beginning at 1:10 pm ET. While there are some notable names taking the mound, it's difficult to back that many hurlers with a ton of confidence today.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
If we take a look at today's list of pitchers, the first one who immediately jumps off the page has to be Max Scherzer ($10,200), but neither his recent numbers nor his matchup fits the mold of a slate-best arm.
Over three starts, Scherzer has submitted a 5.09 SIERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, and 10.8% walk rate, and he's giving up an awful lot of hard contact, as well. He's also dealt with "lingering soreness" that pushed his start back, which could be notable given his recent play.
And then there's his opponent. He's facing the Dodgers, and from 2022-23, their active roster owns the seventh-best wRC+ (114) and third-best walk rate (10.2%) versus right-handers.
So, where can we find positives? Despite his advanced baseball age, Scherzer's track record speaks for itself, and this year's 13.1% swinging-strike rate is a sign that his punchouts might not be as far off as they appear.
Additionally, L.A.'s active roster was a neutral matchup for strikeouts versus righties in 2022, and they actually have the league's highest mark in 2023 at 27.7%. That number will go down a smidge if Mookie Betts (paternity list) is back, but it still shows that they haven't been a bad matchup for swings and misses to this point.
Scherzer's name value likely means he'll remain fairly popular, but considering only one pitcher has a 2023 strikeout rate exceeding 25% this afternoon, he has to be considered one of the top options by default.
If you want a little more peace of mind, you can opt for that one guy with a 26.4% strikeout rate, but it will also cost you a pretty penny. Justin Steele ($11,300) comes in at a slate-high salary, and while that isn't a name you would expect to come at a premium, he's off to a very promising start to 2023.
That strikeout rate is backed by a 14.1% swinging-strike rate, and between that and a tantalizing 57.4% ground-ball rate, the left-hander has achieved a 3.59 SIERA. Perhaps his 8.3% walk rate could be better, but it's still an improvement over last year's mark (9.8%), and 4 of his 6 walks all came in one start.
What potentially puts Steele over the top is his matchup versus Oakland. The Athletics' active roster has actually performed well in a small sample versus southpaws this season, but I'm not buying it from one of the league's worst overall offenses, and they have a 98 wRC+ and 23.8% strikeout rate in the split if we include 2022. The A's have the slate-low 3.43 implied team total.
It's hard to see Steele flunking today's test, so he's arguably the top overall choice. But it's a tough salary to work around, and Scherzer's (possible) upside makes it a close call in tournaments.
Given the aforementioned choices, this might not be a bad spot to save at pitcher, and Trevor Rogers ($9,100) is one guy to consider.
Rogers has a solid if unspectacular 3.85 SIERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, and 54.8% ground-ball rate across his three starts, and his matchup is a good one today. The Giants' active roster has been one of the worst teams against left-handers this year, and that largely holds true if we include 2022, where we find a 98 wRC+ and 26.0% strikeout rate in the split.
If you're willing to roll the dice with a straight-up punt play, Brady Singer ($7,300) is intriguing versus the Rangers.
I brought up Singer last Friday against a much tougher Braves, and while he ultimately got shelled for 8 earned runs in 5 innings, he also racked up 8 punchouts (32.0% strikeout rate; 15.3% swinging-strike rate) with no walks. He got hammered with hard hits and barrels, so his "unlucky" marks in BABIP (.462) and homer-to-fly-ball rate (57.1%) in were probably more well-deserved than not, but there were still some positives to take from the outing.
Texas is a far easier matchup than Atlanta, as their active roster owns a 92 wRC+ and 24.1% strikeout rate against righties dating back to last season. Despite his struggles, Singer has a 3.82 SIERA, and his 32.5% called-plus-swinging-strike rate is a promising sign that he can work his way back up to the 24.2% strikeout rate he logged last year.
Hitting Breakdown
Three teams come in with implied team totals above five runs, and it's the Pittsburgh Pirates (5.89), St. Louis Cardinals (5.69), and Colorado Rockies (5.61).
The Pirates are wrapping up their series at Coors Field, and they get Colorado lefty Austin Gomber, who checks in with a 5.29 SIERA, 16.7% strikeout rate, and 9.1% walk rate this year. Gomber's 48.9% fly-ball rate has led to him allowing at least one home run in each of his three starts.
Gomber struggled with home runs against right-handed batters in 2022, and we should have plenty of righties in today's Pirates lineup. While that all looks outstanding, the problem is that outside of Andrew McCutchen ($3,600), this lineup hits a ton of grounders against lefties (49.2% from 2022-23), which could be a reason to fade a stack that figures to be quite chalky.
Similarly, the Rockies' side isn't in a perfect situation, either. Right-hander Johan Oviedo has been effective so far, posting a 3.56 SIERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, and 56.6% ground-ball rate. Those aren't exactly numbers we would normally go out of our way to attack.
Colorado's lineup continues to feature lots of value for Coors Field, which is great and all, but it could also lead to some of their players being quite popular, as well. If you're going here, the lefties ought to be the priority, as Oviedo's underlying numbers were worse in the split last season, and all three home runs he's allowed in 2023 have come from that side of the plate.
The spot that might be tougher to fade may actually be the Cardinals.
Madison Bumgarner is a shell of his former self and that means getting shelled more often than not. He has a 6.76 SIERA, 11.4% strikeout rate, and 15.7% walk rate, and he's struggled with home runs for several years now. Outside of studs Paul Goldschmidt ($3,700) and Nolan Arenado ($3,600), the salaries are dirt cheap across the lineup, too. This matchup won't be slipping by anyone, but I would be more comfortable going here over either Coors team.
The Atlanta Braves are another team facing a struggling starter, taking their hacks against Nick Martinez. Martinez put up solid numbers between the bullpen and rotation last year, but he was just okay as a starter, and early-season results suggest that maybe the bullpen is best for him. He's put up a 5.49 SIERA, 14.1% strikeout rate, and 12.8% walk rate, and despite doing a nice job getting grounders, he's still coughing up barrels for home runs.
Given that Atlanta's implied team total is in a range of roughly eight teams hovering between 4.40-4.60, that hopefully leaves most of their roster percentages on the lower side. Austin Riley ($3,500) has been hitting into more grounders than we would like this year, but he's otherwise still putting up strong overall marks, so we should continue to roster him at a salary that will likely be much higher later in the year.
The Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners, and Philadelphia Phillies are among the other teams in that mid-range that stand out. The Cubbies face Mason Miller in his MLB debut, and while he's shown exciting strikeout potential in the minors, he's also logged just four starts between Double-A and Triple-A. The other teams face Spencer Turnbull, Eric Lauer, and Mike Clevinger, respectively, and all three pitchers have lackluster underlying numbers to begin 2023.
