FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 4/20/23

Thursday's main slate features fives games and has a slightly earlier start time of 6:35 pm ET. As is often the case with smaller slates, pitching is particularly weak tonight, but the tradeoff is a fair number of intriguing matchups to target for stacks.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

No pitcher is ever truly a sure thing, but Kodai Senga ($11,000) is about as close as we get to that on Thursday night.

Senga has an elite 30.0% strikeout rate to begin his first MLB campaign, and while his 11.2% swinging-strike rate is a tad low, his 31.5% called-plus-swinging-strike rate ranks 17th among starters with at least 10 innings. Despite giving up some dingers already, he's also showing a 50.0% ground-ball rate, which should help him keep the ball inside the park over the long haul.

The main issue for Kodai has been walks, as a 14.3% walk rate has contributed to him logging six full innings in just one of his three outings. The good news is he did get up to a season-high 96 pitches the last time, so the potential for a huge fantasy score is there if he can just dial back those walks a bit.

Senga's matchup is a mixed bag against the Giants. Dating back to last year, San Francisco's active roster may have the sixth-highest strikeout rate against righties (23.8%), but they also have the fourth-highest walk rate (9.9%). Additionally, while they were average at best in the split last year, they've actually been one of the stronger teams versus right-handers so far in 2023.

Overall, though, there's a lot of strikeout potential here, and the Giants' implied team total is one of the night's lowest (3.89).

Unfortunately, it gets a little messy after Senga. Matt Strahm ($9,000) has impressed with a 32.0% strikeout rate and 14.8% swinging-strike rate thus far and would be a shoo-in choice if it wasn't for his pitch counts. He's logged 61, 59, and 67 pitches in his three starts, and while he was pulled early for a cut thumb in that last outing, it's likely he wouldn't have gone significantly above that mark anyway.

The thumb seems to be a minor issue, so it's possible Strahm sees a season-high workload against a weak Rockies team, but it's hard to expect much more than, say, 80 pitches. I'm not sure we can rule him out entirely on such a meh slate, though, and he does have a season-high of 39 FanDuel points in spite of the workload limitations. Colorado also has the slate's lowest implied team total (3.73).

Sean Manaea ($8,600), Michael Wacha ($8,700), and Roansy Contreras ($7,300) are the other alternatives.

Manaea has the slate's third-best strikeout rate (27.7%), but most of that came in one start against the lowly Royals. Still, he had his moments last year and finished with a 3.90 SIERA, 23.2% strikeout rate, and 7.5% walk rate, which are numbers we would happily take tonight. His workload has been better than Strahm's, but he's only maxed out at 82 pitches, so we're likely still looking at a somewhat limited pitch count.

Throw in a less-than-ideal matchup against the Mets, and it's hard to get excited about Manaea. Yet, he probably has one of the better overall track records of the bunch, so he's on the radar.

Wacha had a 10-strikeout game against Atlanta but has otherwise been mediocre in his other two starts. In 2022, he posted a 4.07 SIERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, and 6.0% walk rate, and despite the up-and-down results this year, his underlying numbers aren't far off from that. Arizona isn't a big strikeout team, so the upside is likely limited, but Wacha should get up to 95-plus pitches and is a solid bet to get a quality start at least.

Finally, Contreras has been terrible, but he may actually be a popular play due to his salary and prospect pedigree. While he posted a 32.6% strikeout rate in Triple-A last season, he simply hasn't been able to get those whiffs to carry over in 113 career MLB innings. Working in his favor is a Cincinnati active roster with a 24.0% strikeout rate versus righties from 2022-23, and they have a mere 4.08 implied team total.

There's theoretically upside here, but I'm not sure I can roll with Contreras until he shows more in the big leagues.

Hitting Breakdown

In terms of weather, one spot stands out above all the others in a big way, and that's at Wrigley Field, where we find the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs going toe to toe.

It's a classic wind game at Wrigley, with 14 mph winds or higher blowing out, and the result is a slate-high 11.0-run over/under. While there is a chance of thunderstorms that could throw a wrench in things, it looks more likely than not that they'll be able to play tonight.

The Cubs have the preferred matchup against Michael Grove. Over 42 1/3 innings dating back to last year, Grove has a middling 19.9% strikeout rate, and his 39.7% ground-ball rate means Chicago should be able to take advantage of the windy conditions. Ian Happ ($3,500) and Cody Bellinger ($3,300) will have the platoon advantage, while Patrick Wisdom ($4,000) is among the league's early leaders in barrels per plate appearance this year.

The Dodgers face a better pitcher in right-hander Jameson Taillon, but he's a fly-ball pitcher who's allowed a 47.6% fly-ball rate in 2023. Freddie Freeman ($3,600), Max Muncy ($4,100), and James Outman ($3,200) are the lefties with the most punch, and J.D. Martinez ($3,200) is off to a good start this year. I'm not sure how much I trust Jason Heyward ($2,600) to keep it up, but he's making a lot of hard contact despite the usual high ground-ball rate.

In addition to the Cubs and Dodgers, another team coming in well over a five-run implied team total is the Philadelphia Phillies (5.27).

Right-hander Ryan Feltner has the highest walk rate on the board (16.9%), and given that fact, he's predictably struggled (5.38 SIERA). He's allowed 1.62 home runs per 9 innings over 117 career innings, and look at any split -- whether it's lefties, righties, home, or away -- and he's coughed up dingers.

The Phillies should be able to feast at their home ballpark, one of the best for home runs. Kyle Schwarber ($3,100) is an obvious choice at this value salary, and Brandon Marsh ($3,700) and J.T. Realmuto ($2,900) are the other top power options. Trea Turner ($3,500) slugged his first home run yesterday and brings additional upside with his legs. Bryson Stott ($2,900) isn't particularly exciting on his own, but he's a wise value play for stacks out of the leadoff slot.

The San Diego Padres are another team in a plus matchup versus Ryne Nelson.

The righty has just six career starts dating back to last season, and despite a 2.55 ERA over that span, the numbers underneath tell a different story, as he also has a 4.77 SIERA and 18.7% strikeout rate. He's been lucky across the board in BABIP (.204), strand rate (81.6%), and homer-to-fly-ball rate (8.0%), so that ERA is bound to go up.

Nelson's strikeout rate has been especially poor this year (14.3%), and he's allowing a healthy dose of fly balls (39.6%), which should make us even more intrigued by the Padres.

Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,500) is expected to make his 2023 debut, which gives this lineup a massive boost up top alongside Juan Soto ($3,400), Manny Machado ($3,000), and Xander Bogaerts ($3,800). Machado is having a sluggish April, but he's too good to stay clamped down for long, and this salary is a steal. Given the high salaries of the other stars, we can also roll attack Nelson with value lefties in Matt Carpenter ($2,400), Jake Cronenworth ($2,900), and Trent Grisham ($2,900).