3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 4/28/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Max Muncy To Hit a Home Run (+430)
Max Muncy leads the MLB in home runs, and his prop is sitting way too high at +430 tonight.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are carrying a 4.75 implied run total tonight, set to take on Jack Flaherty of the St. Louis Cardinals. Muncy has been away from the team for a few days due to the birth of a child and is expected to return tonight, so we have the always-fun baby narrative going, as well.
Muncy has 11 home runs to lead all of MLB right now, and this line being up at +430 is simply way too high. He comes in with a 210 wRC+, .486 wOBA, .490 ISO, 46.7% fly-ball rate, and 46.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. I'm salivating at those numbers, and he truly has the power to take any pitcher deep.
Flaherty hasn't looked good this year versus lefties, allowing a .521 SLG, .388 wOBA, 5.21 xFIP, 2.08 HR/9, 45.7% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate to them. I legitimately love this matchup, and it could be my favorite home run prop of the year so far.
As always, I need to tack on Muncy To Record an RBI (+125), which also comes at plus money.
Clarke Schmidt Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+126)
Let's go to a pitcher prop tonight, which starts with under 4.5 strikeouts for Clarke Schmidt.
While Schmidt is coming off an eight-strikeout performance in his most recent start, that is likely his ceiling -- and not something we will see replicated every start. His 26.1% strikeout rate on the season is certainly solid, but it's by no means a consistent rate for him. In that last start, his strikeout rate was up at 36.4%, but in two other starts this season, it was at 16.7% and 15.8%. The consistency is simply not there for Schmidt yet.
He also isn't going super deep into games and has been over 80 pitches in just one of his five starts. If he can't get deeper into games, his ability to rack up strikeouts is always going to be limited.
When it comes to his matchup against the Texas Rangers, it's nothing to write home about. This season, the Rangers come in with a 22.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (19th in the league). They are rather disciplined at the plate, and it doesn't set up to be a great matchup, either.
Mike Trout To Record an RBI (+120)
One of the best hitters in the league with a plus-money prop? Sign me up.
That hitter would be Mike Trout, who is a mere +120 to record an RBI tonight in Milwaukee. Trout has just one RBI over his last five games, which is extremely surprising considering the Los Angeles Angels have scored 38 runs in the last five games. He's too good of a hitter to be kept off the score sheet this long, and with a matchup against Wade Miley, I'm taking this prop every time at this price.
Miley comes in with a .333 SLG, 4.90 xFIP, 1.10 HR/9, 46.0% fly-ball rate, 36.0% hard-contact rate, and 15.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters this season. He's simply not that good of a pitcher, and if he isn't going to be punching hitters out at the plate, there should be plenty of runners on base for Trout to knock in.
Trout is carrying a 143 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .185 ISO, and a 31.6% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers. The Angels have a 4.21 implied run total tonight and should be able to plate plenty of runs against Miley.
