MLB Betting Guide for Friday 4/28/23: Is Toronto a Worthy Favorite in Tonight's Battle of Aces?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins
Cubs ML (-110)
A pick 'em feels like a gift here.
Don't get me wrong; both Marcus Stroman and Jesus Luzardo are having excellent seasons. Both have ERAs and skill-interactive ERAs (SIERAs) below 3.75. This game should have a low-scoring, close feeling, but there are two key reasons to think the Cubs win it.
First, Chicago is actually comfortable in their split today. Their .814 OPS against southpaws is the sixth-best mark in baseball. On the flip side, the Marlins have just a .663 OPS against right-handed pitching, which is the eighth-worst mark in that split.
Secondarily, as this game heads into the bullpen, it's not close. The Cubbies' relievers have amassed a significantly better xFIP thus far (3.95) than Miami's (4.64).
The Marlins get a slight bump for being at home, but the Cubs should still have an advantage at the plate for the vast majority of this contest.
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Mariners -1.5 (+155)
Mariners ML (-104)
This battle of aces has only one pitching like an ace right now.
It's possible Toronto's Alek Manoah turns it around as soon as tonight, but if not for his name value, this game wouldn't be a pick 'em. Manoah's 5.67 SIERA is even worse than his 5.17 ERA, his swinging-strike rate is down to 9.9%, and he's allowing hard contact on 42.7% of the balls put into play against him.
The Mariners will counter with Luis Castillo, who is on the shortlist for best pitcher in baseball thus far. His SIERA (3.14) better supports a sparkling 1.56 ERA, and his swinging-strike rate is much higher (15.3%). His hard-hit rate allowed (48.7%) is dangerous against a vaunted Jays lineup, but he'll generate more outs of his own doing.
Toronto's 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching trumps Seattle's (100), but that gap doesn't erase the one on the mound that is -- without name value -- an ace against a scuffling hurler.
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
Rangers -1.5 (+102)
Ironically, I took the Yankees' runline at this exact price yesterday with their ace on the hill. It's Texas' turn.
Jacob deGrom is on the mound for the Rangers tonight, and that's a tremendous starting point. You rarely see a SIERA below 2.00, but deGrom has one (1.88), and it's a better indicator than his 3.14 ERA that's still recovering from an unlucky start on Opening Day. He's also generated a whiff on 21.2% of swings against him, and his hard-hit rate allowed is just 28.1%. Holy smokes.
New York's lineup isn't even in its full form at the moment. They're 18th in wRC+ against righties to begin the season (100), and that's come with a lofty 25.2% strikeout rate in the split.
As for the Rangers' offense, they've got a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (second-best in MLB) and are set to battle Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt's 3.79 SIERA is solid, but his 57.4% hard-hit allowed is worrisome, and he's yet to top 85 pitches in a start.
This game sets up as Schmidt hanging on against a stellar Texas lineup, and deGrom figures to cruise through the shorthanded Yankees. After having dealt with Gerrit Cole last night, Texas could exact its revenge on Friday.
