FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 5/4/23
We have one of those early Thursday main slates coming our way at 1:10 pm ET, but we're still getting nine games to pluck our players from. This could be a somewhat tricky game at pitcher, while we get one last Coors Field game for the week on the hitting side. Note that there are some slight weather concerns in Denver, but as of this writing, it looks like it should play.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Pablo Lopez ($10,700) is one of just two players with a strikeout rate over 30%, and his matchup is a good one against the White Sox.
Lopez is coming off a pair of forgettable starts, but his underlying numbers remain exciting through a 3.18 SIERA, 31.1% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate. Although he's exceeded 100 pitches only once this year, that high-water mark came right before his two clunkers, so he should have a longer leash if he's dealing tonight.
Chicago has been a below-average offense versus right-handed pitching this season, with their active roster coming in at a 91 wRC+ in the split. Their 3.57 implied team total is one of the slate's lowest. On a day lacking much in the way of elite talent, Lopez feels like the first place to go at pitcher.
The only arm with a higher strikeout rate than Lopez tonight is actually Grayson Rodriguez ($9,400). While the 23-year-old is issuing too many free passes (10.5% walk rate), it's easy to like that hefty 32.4% strikeout rate.
The issue with Rodriguez for DFS purposes is that he's yet to go past five innings in a start, no doubt the byproduct of all those extra baserunners. The good news is that he's still exceeded 90 pitchers in each of the last four outings and has a season-high of 99. The young righty is coming off his best performance, too, a 9-strikeout, 48-point effort against Detroit.
The Royals have been arguably the league's worst team versus right-handers in 2023, posting a 71 wRC+, 24.2% strikeout rate, and 5.6% walk rate in the split. Therefore, it's a little surprising to see them sporting a decent 4.18 implied team total, which could be the result of favorable hitting weather in Kansas City. Still, in the context of this slate, Rodriguez feels like one of the better plays.
George Kirby ($10,000) has a disappointing 20.0% strikeout rate this year and has roughly a one-run difference between his ERA (2.93) and SIERA (3.94), but who doesn't love a matchup against the Athletics, the team with the slate's lowest implied team total (3.16). The A's are another below-average offense facing righties (88 wRC+), and they're handing out strikeouts at the second-highest clip (25.9%).
Pitch count is a slight concern for Kirby, though. Despite a season-high of 96, he's come in at 90 or below in his other four starts. However, due to a pristine 1.7% walk rate, he's been incredibly efficient, earning quality starts in four straight and even going eight innings his last time out. Kirby had a 24.5% strikeout rate in 2022, so there's hope he can bump up those punchouts as the season goes, but the matchup and his efficiency make him a solid option.
I suppose this is a good time to address Justin Verlander ($11,500), who's making his first start of the season. Verlander has an incredible matchup against the Tigers, but he also has by far the slate's highest salary and only went 69 pitches in his final rehab appearance. That likely keeps his pitch count below 90, which is a tough sell at this salary cap hit.
At the same time, would anyone be that surprised if he crushed it in his return? I'd probably roll with the previous three guys first, but if you want to add in Verlander after that, it isn't the craziest move despite the unknowns.
Jesus Luzardo ($9,200) looks like a viable boom-or-bust option for tournaments. It's hard to get excited about starting someone against the Braves, but their implied team total is a middle-of-the-road 4.25, and pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park could be a part of that. While the matchup is daunting, the left-hander has a 3.87 SIERA, 27.0% strikeout rate, and 7.8% walk rate, which are some of the best overall numbers on the board.
Lucas Giolito ($8,300) and Jack Flaherty ($8,500) figure to be the go-to value plays, and based on their recent workloads, both are good bets to exceed 100 pitches. These two have neutral matchups at best against the Twins and Angels, respectively, but Giolito could benefit from an opponent that has the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.5%) versus righties. Given how all over the place Flaherty has been (15.3% walk rate), Giolito arguably gets the nod between the two.
Hitting Breakdown
The Milwaukee Brewers fell flat once again last night, so this is their last shot to redeem themselves at Coors Field. They have a whopping 6.50 implied team total versus Connor Seabold, a player who's pitched entirely out of the bullpen this season.
Seabold got up to 67 pitches in his most recent appearance, so he ought to flirt with four-plus innings before giving way to a bullpen with the league's fourth-worst xFIP. Across 35 career innings, Seabold has recorded a 4.59 xFIP and 18.3% strikeout rate, and public projections on FanGraphs universally peg him for an ERA of 5.00 or worse.
The Brewers' recent struggles haven't affected their salaries much, but that shouldn't be as a big deal on this particular pitching slate. Rowdy Tellez ($3,700) and Willy Adames ($3,600) continue to receive top billing in Milwaukee stacks. In addition to Tellez, Christian Yelich ($3,600) and Jesse Winker ($2,900) will have the platoon advantage atop the order.
Unsurprisingly, the Colorado Rockies have the next-best implied team total (5.50) against left-hander Wade Miley. Despite generally meh peripheral numbers, Miley has produced a 3.40 ERA dating back to 2018, routinely outperforming his ERA estimators. So, even with his 4.68 SIERA and 16.5% strikeout rate this year, his track record should perhaps give us some pause.
That being said, his ground-ball rate has plummeted to 38.9% this year, whereas he's usually hovering around 50%. This still looks like a spot to at least take shots on C.J. Cron ($3,600), Kris Bryant ($3,500), and perhaps Randal Grichuk ($2,900).
Moving on from Coors, the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs are the other teams hovering above five implied runs.
The Orioles are taking on Jordan Lyles, who has an abysmal 5.42 SIERA and 17.5% strikeout rate while allowing 2.29 home runs per 9 innings off a 55.8% fly-ball rate. This is the same ol' Lyles we've gotten accustomed to over the years, and Cedric Mullins ($3,800), Adley Rutschman ($3,300), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,600), and Anthony Santander ($2,900) all have power in the first four slots in the order. Kyle Stowers ($2,100) is a pinch-hit risk, but he's batting fifth at near-minimum salary.
The Cubbies also get a familiar pitcher in these parts in Patrick Corbin. He might as well be the left-handed version of Lyles for our purposes, as he's got a 4.90 SIERA and 14.4% strikeout rate while coughing up 1.72 dingers per 9. While not all of Chicago's batters are off to fast starts, we shouldn't overthink this and start just about any righties we can find, such as Nico Hoerner ($3,700), Dansby Swanson ($3,100), Seiya Suzuki ($2,800), and Patrick Wisdom ($3,800).
The Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners are two more to have on the radar. The Rays have been a juggernaut to begin the season, and while Vince Velasquez has gotten better results in 2023, I have a hard time buying into a guy with a 4.48 SIERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, and 29.7% ground-ball rate. The Mariners get Drew Rucinski in his second-ever MLB start, and he only generated a 5.6% swinging-strike rate in his debut. Oakland's bullpen is also one of the league's worst.
