3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/8/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jarred Kelenic To Hit a Home Run (+430)
The Seattle Mariners have a solid matchup against Jon Gray, which presents them with some home-run potential tonight.
A 4.10 implied run total isn't massive for the Mariners, but I love their potential to exceed that mark versus Gray. So far this season, Gray has allowed a .411 wOBA, .559 SLG, 2.45 HR/9, 6.37 xFIP, 35.8% fly-ball rate, and 34.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting when looking at some of the power options on the other side.
We turn to Jarred Kelenic, who is in the midst of a resurgent season after struggling last year at the dish. He's crushing the ball this season with a 145 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .258 ISO, 39.7% hard-contact rate, and 31.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. We also see Kelenic in the top 92nd percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and hard-hit rate, per BaseballSavant.
He's got the tools to get it done and I'm adding Kelenic To Record an RBI (+165).
Zac Gallen Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
Zac Gallen is a stud, and I'm not sure why his strikeout prop is only 6.5 tonight.
I absolutely love this prop for Gallen. I love this matchup, and I love his overall skill. This season, Gallen is rocking a 35.2% strikeout rate, 3.1% walk rate, 2.22 xFIP, 13.4% swinging-strike rate, and 32.0% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). He's elite across the board this season as the clear ace for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season.
His matchup against the Miami Marlins is a favorable one since they come in with a 24.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-worst in the league.
Gallen failed to hit this mark in his previous start but crossed it in the four starts prior, including three starts up at 11, 11, and 12 strikeouts. With that said, a little sprinkle of Gallen 8+ Strikeouts (+196) is worth a shot tonight.
Gleyber Torres To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)
The New York Yankees have a 4.89 implied run total tonight and are in a spot to get their offense going.
JP Sears will be on the mound for the Oakland Athletics and with the struggles he's shown versus right-handed hitters this season, it's a great spot for Gleyber Torres.
To this point in the year, Sears is allowing a .484 SLG, .325 wOBA, 4.24 xFIP, 2.36 HR/9, 62.5% fly-ball rate, and 31.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. That flyball rate could be really tough for him when entering a great hitter's park such as Yankee Stadium.
Torres is crushing lefties this season to the tune of a 150 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .269 ISO, and 50.0% fly-ball rate. He's hot at the plate right now with hits in 7 of his last 10 games and can certainly keep that trend going tonight with this favorable matchup.
