3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/15/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Jake Fraley To Hit a Home Run (+470)

The Cincinnati Reds are visiting the Colorado Rockies, giving us the best hitter's park in the league as a backdrop tonight.

With a home run prop sitting up at +470, I have a ton of interest in Jake Fraley tonight. The Reds have a 5.63 implied run total and are set to take on Connor Seabold, a pitcher who has struggled since entering the MLB in 2021.

He has only 45.0 innings pitched since 2021 and in that time, he has allowed a .454 wOBA, .646 SLG, 6.71 xFIP, 1.86 HR/9, and 52.9% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters. Those are some really rough numbers to be sporting at Coors Field, and the Reds pushing past their implied run total tonight wouldn't be a surprise.

Fraley crushes right-handed pitchers this season to the tune of a 143 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .211 ISO, 41.2% fly-ball rate, and 33.8% hard-contact rate. That type of power will certainly play at Coors Field, putting Fraley in a great spot. As usual, I'm adding Fraley To Record an RBI (+125).

Hunter Greene Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+102)

Let's stick in that same Reds versus Rockies game but turn to a pitching prop.

That starts with under 5.5 strikeouts for Hunter Greene. There's no doubt that Greene has some serious gas on the mound with his 29.0% strikeout rate and 14.8% swinging-strike rate, but this just isn't the matchup or park factor to show that.

The Rockies come in with a 22.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is just 16th in the league. They are right at the league average, which really isn't an overwhelmingly favorable matchup for Greene. That strikeout rate drops to 21.3% while at home versus right-handed pitchers (22nd in the league).

It's no surprise to see the Rockies strike out less often at home due to the favorable hitting factors, which can often lead to pitchers getting pulled early. Greene has plenty of strikeout potential; it's just not going to happen tonight.

Xander Bogaerts To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

In what could be my favorite player prop of the day, we turn to Xander Bogaerts of the San Diego Padres.

With a 5.25 implied run total, the Padres are expected to put up some runs against Brad Keller, who is seriously struggling this season. To this point in the year, Keller has allowed a .347 wOBA, .348 SLG, 5.82 xFIP, 19.3% walk rate, and 18.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters.

There's nothing about his pitching profile that would suggest he is a pitcher we need to shy away from, and with an elite hitter such as Bogaerts on the other side, we want to actively seek out some props.

Bogaerts is truly solid in a righty versus righty matchup with a 145 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .196 ISO, 18.5% strikeout rate, and .320 BABIP. He's not wasting chances at the plate and puts the ball in play to get on base. It's as simple as that tonight.