FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 5/16/23
There are some tough decisions to make on Tuesday's 12-game slate, as not only are there a bunch of aces getting the ball, but we also have one of those "can't miss" Coors Field games for stacks. Do we take our chances with what should be a chalky Coors game, or do we pivot elsewhere?
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
We have a pretty impressive list of pitchers taking the mound, so figuring out our favorites for tournaments will be tricky, particularly when choosing just one for single-entry contests.
But with it being a Coors Field slate -- not to mention some other tantalizing hitting matchups -- salary could be an important factor at pitcher. That leads me to highlighting Cristian Javier ($10,000) and Zack Wheeler ($9,400) first. They come at just the 7th- and 10th-highest salaries while still bringing that ace-level upside we need on a deep pitching night.
Javier enters with a cool 3.43 SIERA, 29.0% strikeout rate, and 5.4% walk rate over eight starts, and that walk rate is especially notable because it's a full four percentage points below his career average (9.4%). Although the 26-year-old got posted an underwhelming 20.9% strikeout rate over his first four starts, he's really turned it on lately, producing a head-turning 36.8% clip over his last four.
The Cubs' active roster has the 10th-highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching (23.6%), and tonight's lineup could have quite a few high-strikeout bats. Chicago's 3.37 implied team total is the slate's second-lowest mark, as well. With Javier's punchouts on the rise and an ideal matchup to keep the momentum going, he's looking like one of the night's top choices without completely breaking the bank.
Wheeler comes in at an even cheaper salary, and he's putting up similar numbers, with a 3.49 SIERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, and 6.3% walk rate. While the right-hander typically lags behind the very best when it comes to strikeout rate, he's a lethal fantasy asset when he's given enough leash to rack up the innings, and we could begin to see that more often, as he's logged 104 or more pitches in three of the last four outings.
His matchup is a mixed bag against a Giants team that has the third-highest ISO (.207) among active rosters versus right-handers but also strikes out at the fifth-highest clip (24.4%). Despite the scary power he's up against, Wheeler has consistently suppressed home runs over his career (0.80 allowed per 9 innings), and San Francisco is showing a meager 3.69 implied team total.
If saving salary is less of an issue in your builds, then a trio of studs enter the fray in Clayton Kershaw ($11,400), Kevin Gausman ($11,000), and Justin Verlander ($10,800).
Kershaw continues to prove he's still got it at age 35, already cracking 50 FanDuel points four times this season. He's pairing the usual punchouts (29.0% strikeout rate) with impeccable control (5.2% walk rate), and the results have followed.
If we're looking at just 2023, this is a dream spot for him against the Twins, whose active roster has an 80 wRC+ and league-high 27.5% strikeout rate against southpaws. That being said, they also have the second-fewest plate appearances in the split and were much better against lefties last year, so we should probably take these marks with a grain of salt.
Still, Kershaw has been dealing, and Minnesota has the slate's worst implied team total (3.36). Salary is the only thing preventing the veteran lefty from being a shoo-in choice, but he's absolutely a great play if you can work him in.
It's actually Gausman who has the night's best SIERA (2.56), strikeout rate (34.2%), and walk rate (3.6%), and outside of two shellackings this season, he's otherwise been on fire. He's logged six or more scoreless innings five times and reached double-digit strikeouts on three occasions.
He's piled up 64 FanDuel points twice thus far, and one of those starts came against tonight's opponent, the Yankees. While the Bronx Bombers aren't the best fantasy matchup because of their 20.9% strikeout rate versus righties, they also aren't as dangerous as in years past with a 103 wRC+. Given how Gausman has performed this year, we shouldn't doubt his ceiling, even if it will be difficult to duplicate all those FanDuel points.
Verlander is arguably the shakiest of this trio, as this will be his first test against a tough opponent. While Verlander had encouraging performances against the Tigers and Reds, the Rays are a big step up in competition in what will be just his third 2023 start. We're also seeing some hitter-friendly weather at Citi Field, which could nullify its usual boost to pitchers.
All that being said, Verlander got up to 104 pitches last time, and this isn't a strikeout-suppressing lineup if he can keep the ball in the park. If he leads the slate in scoring, would we really be that surprised?
What would be surprising is if it isn't one of these top five guys who end up on the optimal lineup, so it isn't out of the question to cut things off here.
But if you to take a couple of swings on some matchup-based value plays, Jordan Montgomery ($8,600) and Seth Lugo ($9,000) are possibilities. Neither one brings a high strikeout rate, but they've been solid everywhere else and have punchout-enhancing matchups against the Brewers and Royals, respectively. But in most cases, it's probably worth trying your best to get up to Wheeler, who isn't much higher than Lugo's salary.
Hitting Breakdown
Tuesday's Coors Field matchup has a ridiculous 12.5-run over/under, and features an over-the-hill Chase Anderson and overmatched minor leaguer Brandon Williamson, so, needless to say, this will be a tough spot to pass up.
The Colorado Rockies are the favored side against Williamson, a left-hander who's put up a 6.18 xFIP, 16.4% strikeout rate, and 12.1% walk rate in Triple-A this year and was similarly terrible at that level in 2022. It's really, really hard to see this going well for him at the big league level, let alone at Coors Field. Kris Bryant ($3,300) and Randal Grichuk ($3,600) have crushed lefties throughout their careers, so they're top priorities, but I'm not sure we have to be picky in the least.
The Cincinnati Reds may very well have just as good a matchup, though. Anderson hasn't been anywhere close to good in years, owning a 6.51 ERA since the beginning of 2020. This is already his third organization in 2023 alone -- including these same Reds, in fact -- and his Triple-A starts were only marginally better than Williamson's, producing a 5.75 xFIP, 19.0% strikeout rate, and 13.0% walk rate. He also made a pair of relief appearances for the Rays earlier this month, managing just an 11.1% strikeout rate over five innings.
Whether it's the recent or long-term data, it simply doesn't look like Anderson should be on an MLB roster these days. Like yesterday, Jonathan India ($4,000), Jake Fraley ($3,400), and Spencer Steer ($3,400) are the top Reds again, and then we could have a gift in Matt McLain ($2,000) if he's batting second for the second straight night. McLain had a 1.184 OPS with 12 home runs and 10 stolen bases in Triple-A before getting called up on Monday.
Given everything I've said, both Coors teams ought to be pretty popular, so we'll still have to keep an open mind for other stacks. It's baseball, after all.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are one potential pivot, as they're taking on struggling lefty Kyle Muller and that shoddy Oakland bullpen. Muller has a 5.59 SIERA, 14.6% strikeout rate, and 11.4% walk rate this year, and he's allowed a home run in six straight starts. Christian Walker ($3,500), Ketel Marte ($3,100), and Lourdes Gurriel ($3,200) are the top bats with the platoon advantage. Gurriel has curiously underwhelmed against lefties going back to 2022 but has nearly identical splits over his career as a whole.
The Seattle Mariners have the best non-Coors implied team total (5.49) in their matchup versus Nick Pivetta. Most of Pivetta's underlying numbers aren't all that different from past campaigns, but he is getting absolutely wrecked by hard contact, owning third-percentile marks in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate, per Baseball Savant. That's led to the right-hander allowing 2.08 home runs per 9 innings, and when coupled with a 9.5% walk rate, that tends to result in rather poor outings.
Temperatures in the mid-to-high 70s and 12 mph winds blowing out won't help Pivetta's cause at Fenway tonight, either. Pivetta is getting far more strikeouts against lefties (28.2%) compared to righties (18.4%), so Julio Rodriguez ($3,500), Teoscar Hernandez ($2,800), and Eugenio Suarez ($2,800) could actually have the biggest advantage, but the home runs are coming from everywhere, so feel free to load up on Jarred Kelenic ($3,100), Cal Raleigh ($2,900), and Taylor Trammell ($2,800), as well. The modest salaries across the board certainly don't hurt.
The Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers, and Los Angeles Dodgers are other notable teams. The Braves face a low-strikeout hurler in Dane Dunning, though he's done a decent job of inducing grounders (48.9%) and actually hasn't allowed a home run yet. On the other side of that game, lefty Jared Shuster is getting called up to make his third MLB start; the first two resulted in a 7.73 SIERA. Bailey Ober is a solid overall pitcher, but he has a career 4.98 xFIP versus lefty sticks, so keep the left-handed Dodgers in mind.
