MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 5/30/23: Backing Positive Regression for a Lefty in Queens
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tigers ML (+112)
At the very least, Detroit's .679 OPS in this split trumps the other (.654 versus righties), but Perez's profile is a gettable one for most lineups. The low-whiff veteran has his usual low strikeout rate (16.7%), leading to a 4.69 expected ERA (xERA) that's much higher than he'd like. The 22.3% line-drive rate is curiously high, too.
The home side will counter with Alex Faedo, who has been better through his four appearances. His 3.06 xERA is lower with a much higher rate of punchouts (26.8%). You'd have to think he's the reason for this curiously short betting line given the overall gap in these two clubs.
Notably, as this game dips into the bullpens, Detroit's reliever xFIP (4.27) is significantly lower than Texas' (4.79). That's a huge edge that might be a bit undersold by the public considering over 75% of the bets and handle is backing the Rangers.
Phillies ML (+110)
There's definitely some ERA-related tomfoolery baked into this line.
Ranger Suarez hasn't performed nearly as poorly as a 9.82 ERA would suggest. His 4.68 xERA is better, and his 3.87 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) -- behind a low 27.0% hard-hit rate allowed -- is even better. He'll draw a Mets club that's continued its pedestrian trend from a year ago against lefties, amassing a .730 OPS (tied for 10th-worst in MLB) in the split.
New York will send Kodai Senga to the mound as his opposition, but Senga's 3.94 ERA isn't quite as impressive as you'd hope for. His 4.43 SIERA is significantly higher, and his hard-hit rate allowed (33.9%) definitely is more concerning than his counterpart. Plus, the Phillies have crushed righties; their current roster's .765 OPS against them is the seventh-best mark in baseball.
Adding to the Phils' potential edge tonight, their bullpen (4.19 xFIP) has outperformed New York's (4.62) nearly two months into the season. Philly is a really solid package at this +110 price tag.
Under 8.5 (-110)
In one of baseball's most forgiving parks for pitchers, I'm good expecting less offense in Oakland tonight.
The Athletics' outburst of seven runs last night hasn't been the norm against righties. In fact, their 81 wRC+ against orthodox-handed hurlers is the third-worst in baseball, so Bryce Elder should have a decent night at the office.
Elder has been decent in his second season. His 2.01 ERA isn't overly well-supported by a 3.78 SIERA, but even that mark will work against the lowly A's. Elder's ability to generate swings and misses (11.0% rate) should be a factor facing a lineup that has the highest strikeout rate in MLB against righties (26.5%).
Oakland will also counter with one of their better arms tonight. With a 4.19 SIERA, JP Sears has put decent efforts together, but he's been victimized by a HR/FB ratio of 14.0%. That's considerably above the league average (11.8%) -- and especially unlucky considering his home ballpark.
While it's always a possibility a prolific Braves offense surpasses this total on its own, the 72% of tickets ultimately backing one team's potential to light up the scoreboard isn't an overly sound process.