3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/16/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Michael Harris To Hit a Home Run (+630)
Another day, another time the Atlanta Braves lead the slate with a big implied run total (6.29).
The Braves have an amazing offense and could hit that implied run total in the blink of an eye on a nightly basis. Their hitters are consistently in good matchups, and tonight, that leads us to Michael Harris II. It's been an interesting season for Harris, who started off strong, hit a major slump, and is in the midst of rocketing his way out of that slump.
For the season, Harris has a 69 wRC+, .278 wOBA, .126 ISO, and 39.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Those are below-average numbers and nothing to get excited about. However, he was in a slump for a while and things have turned around quickly for him.
Since the start of June, Harris has a 149 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .231 ISO, and 54.8% hard-contact rate versus righties. It's night and day for Harris, who already has two homers this week. Harris has picked it up, and I'm rolling with the hot hitter.
He's going up against Dinelson Lamet, who comes in allowing a .491 wOBA, .720 SLG, 5.68 xFIP, 2.45 HR/9, 41.0% fly-ball rate, and 46.2% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. This is a clear plus matchup for Harris, so I'm adding Harris To Record an RBI (+145).
Tanner Houck Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)
For a pitching prop tonight, over 5.5 strikeouts for Tanner Houck is the spot I'm looking.
Houck comes in with a 23.1% strikeout rate, 13.2% swinging-strike rate, and 30.7% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. All three are higher than the league average, but the latter two are bordering on elite territory. Frankly, his strikeout rate is a bit low considering these other stats, and we've begun to see his strikeout rate start to increase.
In three of his last four starts, Houck has posted single-game strikeout rates of 34.8%, 25.0%, and 27.3%. That is more in line with the strong swinging-strike rate and CSW rate he has this season. This is very encouraging. On top of that, Houck has passed this 5.5 mark in each of those three starts I previously mentioned.
Tonight, he is up against the New York Yankees, who come in with a 22.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. That jumps to 23.4% while on the road in this split. It's not a massive increase, but with a pitcher like Houck on the other side, his underlying stuff should help him in this spot.
Brandon Drury To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Brandon Drury is back from his suspension and has a great matchup to get things back on track.
Drury is set to rejoin the Los Angeles Angels' lineup tonight. They come in with a 5.10 implied run total on the road against the Kansas City Royals, who will have Brady Singer on the mound.
Singer has a low 19.2% strikeout rate versus righties while mainly pitching to contact, but that's not going too well for him this season. He comes in allowing a .337 wOBA, .470 SLG, .315 BABIP, 1.26 HR/9, and 35.5% hard-contact rate to righties. In short, you shouldn't be worried about Singer.
Drury is having a very strong year versus righties with a 115 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .239 ISO, .322 BABIP, 44.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate in the split. He's checking all the boxes we want to see, and for even money, this is a great prop to target.
