FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 6/27/23
As per usual on Tuesdays, we've got a jam-packed, 15-game main slate tonight with aces and top offenses galore. Despite some rain on the East Coast, the weather shouldn't be much of a factor across the day's games, either. It should be a dandy.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
The best way I can summarize this slate is Sandy Alcantara is its 18th-highest-salaried pitcher, and he's not even really viable with that title. It's deep.
We've got top names, but not a ton of them have top matchups. Shohei Ohtani ($10,800) does. Ohtani will carry his sparkling 3.45 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) into a date with the White Sox. Chicago's right-hand-dominant lineup has just an 84 wRC+ in the split, and Ohtani has a 35.0% punchout rate against righties. Good luck, fellas.
You'd likely turn to Kevin Gausman ($11,000) next. He's got a double-edged sword of a matchup with San Francisco at home. The Giants strike out the seventh-most often against righties (24.0% of the time), but they've also got a .736 OPS against them. Gausman's 3.10 SIERA leads the slate, so he's as best equipped as any to suppress them.
Since May 1st, the Rockies have an 86 wRC+ versus lefties (fourth-worst in MLB) and a 24.6% strikeout rate in the split (sixth-worst). I know it's Coors Field, but it's not the moon, so there's still a solid shot Clayton Kershaw ($10,600) puts together a decent effort. He's easily got the second-best matchup in the top tier at a salary that clearly has a ballpark component to it.
Framber Valdez, Joe Ryan, Andrew Abbott, Zac Gallen, and Taj Bradley all have bottom-10 matchups (by wRC+) in their respective splits, and only Gallen is at home against the Rays. It would be really forcing any of those guys in comparison -- even if Valdez and Ryan are indeed studs.
For a high-floor value play, Yu Darvish ($9,300) could absolutely work. Pittsburgh's 66 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this month is the worst in MLB. They haven't struck out as often as you'd hope (21.4% rate), but Darvish's 25.7% punchout rate can bring a little swing-and-miss upside for the salary.
I'd also mention Oakland's Paul Blackburn ($7,800), who is set to battle the Aaron Judge-less Yankees, as a play for safety. New York has only beaten out Pittsburgh in OPS against right-handers during June (.615), and his ballpark always works in his favor.
In cash games, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the obvious starting point rocking a 7.81 implied team total, but that's probably an overvaluation.
Though getting Max Muncy ($3,700) back tonight, L.A. has just a 90 wRC+ against righties in June, coming off getting largely blanked by Hunter Brown on Sunday night. Frighteningly for the Rockies, Connor Seabold is also one of Colorado's better options at this stage, amassing a 4.95 SIERA and "only" a 38.3% hard-hit rate allowed.
He's just been normal bad when this implied total suggests unmanageably bad, and only David Peralta ($3,100) is likely to end up in L.A.'s top-six bats with a salary below $3,700. I could easily end up underweight on the Dodgers in tournaments if they'll be super popular.
Elsewhere, today should be a better spot to go back to the Texas Rangers. I preferred Matt Boyd's outlook last night to Matt Manning's. The right-hander, Manning, has a 5.47 SIERA in the bigs and a 5.55 xFIP with Triple-A Toledo, so he's been poor across any assignment, and obviously, Texas' .783 OPS against righties this season is sizzling.
The San Diego Padres are a stack for both formats that caught my eye. Rich Hill is definitely beatable when they've put forth a league-best .880 OPS against southpaws this month, but the most appealing part of a stack that should trail the Dodgers in popularity? The Pirates' bullpen has tallied a league-worst 5.64 xFIP this month. It could be an onslaught by the Allegheny.
Without getting too wild, we can continue to find other largely ignored stacks for tournaments with the New York Mets and Seattle Mariners -- especially as both came up a bit (or a lot) shy of expectations last night.
The Mets' momentum is awful at the moment, but Julio Teheran is a guy that should be due for a clunker very soon. His 1.53 ERA is hiding a 4.69 SIERA, and he's allowing an elevated flyball rate (43.1%) with a paltry 17.1% strikeout rate. New York's 4.93 implied team total is much higher than you'd expect.
As for Seattle, they'll be the latest to potentially blast Jake Irvin, whose debut season has been a disaster. Irvin has a 5.45 SIERA, a 17.9% strikeout rate, and a gaudy 12.1% walk rate in his rookie campaign. The M's have a way of flailing below their talent in both splits, but a 96 wRC+ against righties in June shows improvement, and the Nats' bullpen (4.79 xFIP this season) is always gettable.