3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/28/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Gunnar Henderson To Hit a Home Run (+420)
The Baltimore Orioles have a 5.20 implied run total tonight and could reach that in a hurry.
A favorable matchup against Luke Weaver puts the Orioles near the top of the list tonight, and we want to jump on some player props. Weaver comes in allowing a .515 SLG, .368 wOBA, 5.54 xFIP, 1.73 HR/9, and 43.7% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. These are the type of numbers we love to see when targeting a pitcher who is susceptible to allowing home runs.
We turn to Gunnar Henderson, who is crushing the ball versus righty pitchers this season with a 144 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .286 ISO, 38.1% fly-ball rate, and 48.7% hard-contact rate. The power is clearly there for Henderson, who has three balls with exit velocities over 100 mph in the last three games but no home runs have resulted from it.
Of course, I'm adding Henderson To Record an RBI (+130).
Kodai Senga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
Time to turn to "The Ghost Fork" for a strikeout prop tonight.
Of course, that would be Kodai Senga of the New York Mets, who's in a great spot to show off that nasty pitch. He will be taking on the Milwaukee Brewers, who are very undisciplined at the plate with a 25.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (fourth-worst in the league). This puts Senga in an awesome matchup to pile up the strikeouts quickly.
To this point in the season, Senga has a 26.6% strikeout rate, 12.0% swinging-strike rate, and 28.3% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. Senga has been up at 96 pitches or more in four of his last five starts, so there's no worry about him getting deeper into the game to rack up the strikeouts.
Josh Jung To Record an RBI (+105)
With a 5.51 implied run total, the Texas Rangers are in a spot to pour on the offense tonight.
If runs are going to be scored, that means RBI props are going to be cashed. That's what we're going after tonight, and it leads us to Josh Jung. The rookie is crushing lefties this season with a 177 wRC+, .425 wOBA, ..307 ISO, .358 BABIP, 39.0% fly-ball rate, and 47.5% hard-contact rate. Those are elite-level numbers that put him in a spot to create plenty of offense tonight.
He will be taking on Joey Wentz, who allows a .371 wOBA, .519 SLG, 4.64 xFIP, 2.08 HR/9, 45.1% fly-ball rate, 35.6% hard-contact rate, and .331 BABIP. Wentz is getting crushed in this split between the hard contact and the fly balls, so he has a tough time limiting the opposing offenses from doing damage. We should see the Rangers pile up the runs -- just as they did last night.
