3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/18/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Corey Seager To Hit a Home Run (+390)

The Texas Rangers have plenty of power in their lineup and are always a threat for some runs.

With the league's best offense, the Rangers have been piling on the runs left and right this season, making them a great team to target for some offense. Tonight, they are going up against Taj Bradley, who has struggled with opposing power hitters this season.

To this point in the year, Bradley is allowing a .371 SLG, 37.0% fly-ball rate, 36.6% hard-contact rate, 6.7% HR/FB ratio, and 0.56 HR/9 to left-handed hitters. The latter two stats are the most interesting when it comes to Bradley and suggest he is due for some regression in this split.

For reference, the league average stats versus left-handed hitters are 37.3% fly-ball rate, 31.9% hard-contact rate, 12.5% HR/FB ratio, and 1.19 HR. Bradley is allowing a league-average amount of flyballs and allowing more hard contact, but fewer of those balls are going for home runs. He can't continue to give up more hard contact compared to the league average and see none of them go for home runs.

This is where we turn to Corey Seager, who sits in the top five of the league in average exit velocity, xSLG, xwOBA, and xBA, per BaseballSavant. This has led to him posting a 199 wRC+, .458 wOBA, .308 ISO, 34.5% fly-ball rate, and 56.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.

He's elite across the board and in a matchup where the pitcher should be due for some regression. As always, I'm adding Seager To Record an RBI (+150).

Matt Olson To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)

The Atlanta Braves have a massive 6.01 implied run total tonight and are primed for some offense.

The visiting Arizona Diamondbacks will have Zach Davies -- a pitcher we should be attacking every time he is on the slate -- on the bump.

Davies comes in allowing a .356 wOBA, .460 SLG, 4.83 xFIP, .333 BABIP, 1.16 HR/9, and 15.9% strikeout rate. He simply isn't a good pitcher; he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters and is getting hit all over the place by lefties this season.

I love this matchup for Matt Olson, who is elite with a 167 wRC+, .424 wOBA, .355 ISO, 48.2% fly-ball rate, and 40.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. This is as simple of a bet as we can find in baseball and is my favorite of today's slate.

Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-116)

Tarik Skubal has a soft matchup and is trending in the right direction.

Skubal got a late start to the season due to an elbow injury from last year and only has two games pitched this season. That's a total of 8.0 innings pitched, which is an insanely small sample size to look at for a pitcher. During this time, he has a 39.3% strikeout rate, which is noticeably higher than the roughly 25.0% strikeout rate he posted over the last two seasons.

Skubal has only gone for 58 and 63 pitches in his first two starts but had plenty of rest after his most recent start due to the All-Star break. That allowed him to rack up five and six strikeouts in his first two starts, which is all very encouraging. I say all of this because I'm optimistic about Skubal's potential in a very favorable matchup against the Kansas City Royals.

Skubal should be around 70-75 total pitches tonight, and that will put him in a good spot to hit over 5.5 strikeouts. The Royals come in with a 24.8% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-worst in the league. We have a poor, undisciplined team at the plate versus a pitcher who looks ready to take the next step.