FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 7/19/23
Wednesday's eight-game main slate isn't littered with aces, but there's upside to be found at both high and low salaries tiers tonight. And while we might not get the outlandish scores we saw last night at the plate, we should still see a good share of offense, as well.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
On a slate with lower strikeout rates across the board, Luis Castillo ($10,500) and Eduardo Rodriguez ($10,600) have the night's highest marks, hovering just under 27%. Although both pitchers have enticing matchups, E-Rod is making just his third start since returning from a lengthy stint on the injured list, making Castillo my top option by a slim margin.
Castillo had an underwhelming start versus Detroit his last time out, and while he gets an even better matchup for punchouts this time around facing the Twins, the drawback is that Minnesota is also a much, much better overall offense. Against right-handed pitching, the Twins' active roster has a league-worst 28.1% strikeout rate but also carries the seventh-best wRC+ (112) and ISO (.187).
That power is of particular concern for Castillo because his ground-ball rate has dropped to a career-low 40.8%, which has led to 1.36 home runs per 9 innings, his worst mark since 2018. However, his pitcher-friendly home ballpark should aid him greatly, and he's enjoyed quite a bit more success at T-Mobile Park compared to his road starts. All of this is further backed by Minnesota's slate-low 3.47 implied team total.
Flipping over to Rodriguez, he has an inviting matchup versus Kansas City, but he also hasn't exceeded five innings in each of his two starts since returning from injury. However, he's still managed to reach seven Ks apiece in those outings (35.9% rate) and got up to 88 pitches last time, which is a promising sign that he could be on the verge of popping for a big fantasy score.
Both of E-Rod's return matchups have been high-strikeout opponents -- Oakland and Seattle -- but Kansas City is yet another one. The Royals' active roster owns a 25.0% strikeout rate versus lefties, and given the way Rodriguez's pitch counts have been trending, he could be just about fully stretched out tonight. Assuming that's the case, we may finally see him go six-plus innings, giving him the required length to make a run in tournaments.
We can jump pretty far down the list when it comes to value between Carlos Rodon ($7,500) and Kenta Maeda ($7,200).
Rodon hasn't moved the needle much over his first two starts, but he did log six punchouts in five innings at Coors Field last week, so we're starting to see flashes of the guy who posted a strikeout rate that exceeded 33% the past two seasons. The southpaw also reached 88 pitches in that appearance, so much like E-Rod, he may finally be close to a full workload. Rodon's velocity has been on par with last season, as well.
This isn't a cupcake matchup versus the Angels, particularly considering Shohei Ohtani is crushing left-handed pitching just fine this season. Chances are this isn't the night where Rodon puts it all together. That being said, if we're getting anything remoted close to the 2022 version of Rodon who produced a 2.83 SIERA, 33.4% strikeout rate, and 7.3% walk rate, then he will end up being an absolute steal of a play at under $8,000.
Maeda continues to have a rollercoaster campaign, scoring 45, 21, 55, and 18 FanDuel points since returning in late June. But he's put up a 3.64 xFIP and 33.3% strikeout rate over this span, so the peaks haven't been a fluke. Although a pitch count that continues to remain below 90 pitches leaves less room for error, he should be able to generate Ks against the whiff-happy Mariners, so we shouldn't rule out a strong performance.
Hitting Breakdown
The Atlanta Braves scored double-digit runs on Tuesday, and we could see them have another big performance at the plate tonight versus Ryne Nelson. Atlanta's 5.87 implied team total is easily the slate's highest.
Over 19 starts, Nelson's recorded a 5.09 SIERA, 15.8% strikeout rate, and 36.6% ground-ball rate, so he'll have a difficult time offering up much resistance against a potent Braves lineup. Ryne's strikeout rate drops to a mere 13.5% versus lefties, so Matt Olson ($4,300) and Ozzie Albies ($3,900) are top choices and Michael Harris II ($2,900) has added appeal as a value play -- but with this being Atlanta, we could see just about anyone have a field day.
The San Francisco Giants get right-hander Graham Ashcraft, who has a solid 48.6% ground-ball rate and not much else. Ashcraft enters the day with a 5.08 SIERA, 15.9% strikeout rate, and 9.4% walk rate, and he's logged two strikeouts or fewer in five of his last six starts. Boosted by Great American Ball Park again, the Giants boast a 5.30 implied team total.
The usual pinch-hit risks apply for the Giants, but the good news is the Reds' only left-handed reliever has made two straight appearances (and three of the last four), so we have a much better chance of seeing tonight's lineup make it from start to finish.
That improves the outlooks of guys like Joc Pederson ($3,000) and Mike Yastrzemski ($2,900), who will all have the platoon advantage, and as those salaries would suggest, there's value throughout the order. Ashcraft actually has worse numbers in same-sided matchups, which includes a poor 5.32 xFIP, so someone like Wilmer Flores ($2,700) is appealing if he gets another start.
On the other side of that Giants, the Cincinnati Reds could also put up some crooked numbers as they did last night. Right-hander Ross Stripling has a modest 20.2% strikeout rate, and he's been pummeled for 2.36 home runs per 9 innings, which doesn't bode well for him at a hitter-friendly venue.
While the number of dingers has been a little flukey when considering his 26.7% homer-to-fly-ball rate off a 30.8% fly-ball rate, Stripling's been getting hit hard all season, leading to a lackluster 5.35 xERA. Even if some of those home runs came from poor luck, he shouldn't be getting a free pass for his struggles, either.
Stripling has been allowing few grounders and an alarming number of line drives to lefty sticks, while he's posted a lower strikeout rate in same-sided matchups, so both sides of the plate should excel. Elly De La Cruz ($4,200) has cooled a bit at that plate, but his speed upside is obvious, and Joey Votto ($3,500) continues to show nice power since returning in June.
The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs were also among the teams that went off at the plate on Tuesday, and their follow-up matchups are intriguing. The Mets have a 5.22 implied team total and are facing Touki Toussaint, a righty who has had issues with left-handed batters his whole career. Right-hander Trevor Williams is allowing 1.83 home runs per 9 innings, and the Cubs' lefties should especially benefit from Williams' 12.0% strikeout rate against them.
