3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/19/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Cody Bellinger To Hit a Home Run (+420)
The Chicago Cubs exploded for 17 runs last night and can keep that offense going today with a favorable matchup.
Do I expect them to score 17 runs again? No, but with a solid 4.56 implied run total, it wouldn't be a shock to see them exceed that mark. They are taking on Trevor Williams, a pitcher we will look to target every single time he is on the mound for the simple fact that he is not good.
This season, Williams is allowing a .480 SLG, .356 wOBA, 5.64 xFIP, 1.49 HR/9, and 40.4% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. This puts him in a spot to get hit hard and let up some long balls, giving us a spot we can find some interesting options from the Cubbies.
That leads us to Cody Bellinger, who is off to a hot start since the All-Star break with three home runs in his last five games. For the season, Bellinger has a 111 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .172 ISO, and 47.7% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. If we dig into his stats from only July, Bellinger's numbers jump to a 231 wRC+, .517 wOBA, .324 ISO, and 56.3% fly-ball rate in this split.
Yes, this is a small sample size of his entire season, but Bellinger is hot at the dish right now and facing a pitcher who struggles against lefties, so of course, I'll look to add Bellinger To Record an RBI (+115).
Michael Conforto To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)
With a 10.5 over/under, we should see plenty of offense yet again between the San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds.
The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is the third-best hitter's park in the league, giving us a great backdrop to find some offensive player props. The Reds will have Graham Ashcraft on the mound, a young pitcher who hasn't put it all together.
This season, he's allowing a .442 SLG, .340 wOBA, 4.22 xFIP, .304 BABIP, 1.31 HR/9, and 18.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters. He isn't a dominant strikeout pitcher on the mound, and the slugging allowed in this type of hitter's park is a dangerous mix.
We turn to a consistent hitter in Michael Conforto, who's rocking a 117 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .180 ISO, .288 BABIP, 36.5% fly-ball rate, and 35.9% hard-contact rate versus righties this season. The Giants have a massive 5.30 implied run total and are expected to have plenty of runners on base, which we can look to capture via this prop.
Charlie Morton Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
After an insane 29-run outburst last night between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves, we're looking at a pitching prop tonight.
The Braves come into tonight riding a surprising three-game losing streak, and more importantly, their bullpen has been significantly taxed over the last two games. This is the first part of why I'm targeting over 6.5 strikeouts for Charlie Morton tonight.
The Braves simply need to get some solid innings out of Morton to ease the workload on their bullpen right at the start of the second half of the season. Morton comes in with a solid 25.7% strikeout rate, 12.6% swinging-strike rate, and 30.9% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. Those are solid numbers across the board, and we saw Morton hit 100 pitches thrown nine times in the first half of the season.
There is absolutely no limitation for Morton to get deeper into the game, which is exactly what the Braves need from him tonight. This should help him reach for over 6.5 strikeouts -- a mark he's hit in 5 of his last 10 starts.
