MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 7/20/23: Don't Sleep on the Redbirds at Wrigley
Baseball has got you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
With that said, which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 9.5 (+102)
Despite these offenses not being world-crushers, they're capable enough when the pitching in this game screams for regression to the mean.
Alex Cobb's 2.82 ERA is nothing short of wizardry. He's got a 4.14 expected ERA (xERA) behind that with an enormous 45.2% hard-hit rate allowed. Cobb's one saving grace is a low flyball rate (22.2%), but with the seventh-lowest rate of flyballs against righties in July (33.2%), the Reds aren't reliant on the long ball.
Cincinnati will counter with Andrew Abbott, who has also outperformed his peripherals in eight starts this season. Abbott's 2.45 ERA has a 4.33 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) behind it, and with the opposite problem as Cobb, his flyball rate (61.0%) is massive. Paired with a 43.3% hard-rate rate allowed, Abbott could be set up for disaster in one of the sport's best hitter's parks.
Plus, these are two of the bottom-nine bullpens (by xFIP) in July. Expect more runs between these two today after a combined five last night.
Under 8.0 (-110)
The Tampa Bay Rays have fallen completely back to Earth.
Expected to be one of baseball's most average offenses against righties, the Rays led the league in wRC+ during each of the first two months of the season. In July, they've stumbled to an 86 wRC+ against right-handers with a massive 25.6% strikeout rate.
Therefore, while Kyle Gibson isn't the sexiest starter for the Orioles today, his matchup is quite nice. At the very least, he does a nice job limiting homers (0.87 HR/9), which can crush this total in a hurry.
On the other side, we know Baltimore should struggle with Tyler Glasnow. The fireballer has a 3.10 SIERA and a gigantic 35.1% strikeout rate in nine starts since returning from injury, and he's eclipsed 95 pitches in two of his last three starts.
Unlike in Cincy, we've got two of July's top-10 bullpens (by xFIP) in this one. I'd side with a pitching duel here.
Cardinals ML (+106)
The deeper you dive, the more it becomes clear why this line is so short despite the perceived pitching edge the Cubs have.
Marcus Stroman is certainly their best starter, but he's not perfect. His 2.88 ERA is otherwise hiding a 4.08 SIERA, and Stroman's 39.2% hard-hit rate allowed is fairly high. His largest concern, though, will be the Cardinals' offense. They hold a sizzling .853 OPS against righties in July.
On St. Louis' side, it won't be an easy night for Steven Matz, but in terms of coming out on top, the Cubs' .779 OPS against lefties is a bit lower than what the Cardinals bring. Matz is also having a better year than a 4.86 ERA would suggest, per a 4.21 SIERA that's in the vicinity of Stroman's.
The Cardinals' bullpen (4.12 xFIP) has also significantly outperformed Chicago's 'pen (4.62) in July, so they're a pretty solid package at plus money.