MLB Betting Guide for Friday 7/21/23: A Projected Shootout in the Nation's Capital
Baseball has got you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
With that said, which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers
Tigers ML (+122)
This curiously short number makes more sense after a closer look at Detroit's Reese Olson.
Olson has a 3.52 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in nine appearances, punctuated with a 39.3% flyball rate and a manageable 37.4% hard-hit rate allowed. Tigers fans have long craved stability from any arm, but there's sizzle here, too. Olson's 25.8% strikeout rate is plenty dominant.
The visiting Padres will run out Seth Lugo, who enters with a higher SIERA (3.82), a higher hard-hit rate allowed (40.7%), and a lower strikeout rate (22.2%). Detroit should have the pitching advantage throughout considering their bullpen has a much lower xFIP in July (4.36) than San Diego's (5.31).
Of course, there's a trade-off offensively. The Padres (126 wRC+ versus righties in July) have significantly outperformed the Tigers (79) in this split, but this number seems worth a dart given a pitching edge in one of baseball's best parks for pitching.
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Over 9.5 (-115)
I never would have guessed Alex Wood, a guy I see as a reliable veteran, would have a Baseball Savant page splattered in blue.
Wood has struggled to a 4.92 SIERA this season with a hard-hit rate and average exit velocity marks in the 25th percentile or worse across baseball. It won't help him today that the Nationals are a sneaky offense against lefties, holding the league's sixth-best OPS against them this month (.844).
Not many are doubting the offense from Wood's Giants, though. Rookie Jake Irvin has been a vulnerable target all year behind a 5.45 SIERA, a paltry 15.9% strikeout rate, and an absurdly high 4.23 BB/9. San Francisco has crushed righties all season for a .738 OPS, and this is definitely their better split for lefty regulars like Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski.
This over is pretty easy to love when these are also two bottom-13 bullpens (by xFIP) this month in one of baseball's better parks for hitting, and it's quite warm in the nation's capital this evening.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels
Under 8.0 (-102)
If this bet could be as simple as "will cash if Shohei Ohtani is amazing", I already like my chances.
Ohtani is on the bump for the Angels in this one, which you probably already guessed from the low total. Of course, the two-way superstar has a 3.59 SIERA on the mound this year with a sensational 32.6% strikeout rate, and he can rebound from rough previous starts here.
Pittsburgh enters with the league's lowest wRC+ against orthodox-handed hurlers this month (65), so no one is really doubting Shohei's potential for a quality start. The question is if Johan Oviedo can eat innings against a competent Halos offense, and I think he can.
L.A., still down Mike Trout, has just a 102 wRC+ in this split this month, so they haven't been dominant. Plus, Oviedo has put forth a serviceable 4.63 SIERA and solid 88.7 mph average exit velocity this season.
The concern in this one is, if it's nearing eight runs late, these are two of baseball's bottom-10 bullpens by xFIP in July. I just don't believe it'll be close when Ohtani has a dream matchup to keep the Buccos' total near zero.
